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Archive: Wednesday, November 4, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

4 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3, current when the day began

Colder and breezy tonight, then near-normal temperatures and generally dry weather through Saturday, with a warming trend into early next week.

From the NWS discussion issued 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3.

The forecast

  • This afternoon (Tuesday) (Mainly Mid-Missouri and northwest Missouri into eastern Kansas): Isolated showers continue this afternoon, mainly over Mid-Missouri and from northwest Missouri into eastern Kansas.
  • This evening and tonight: Colder and breezy, with wind gusts up to 25 mph. Patchy drizzle is possible. Morning lows fall into the mid to upper 40s for most locations.
  • Wednesday (Whole area; clouds linger longest in northern and northeast Missouri): Clouds hang on, then start clearing from southwest to northeast in the afternoon, though northern and northeast Missouri should stay fairly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s with breezy west winds.
  • Wednesday night through Thursday night: Skies should clear Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Another weather system then brings more clouds and a slight (20%) chance of rain Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
  • Through Friday, and Friday night into Saturday morning: Near-normal temperatures are likely through the end of the work week: highs in the mid to upper 50s, lows around 40. Friday night into Saturday morning, lows drop to the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.
  • This weekend into Monday: A warming trend is likely, with highs back in the mid to upper 60s by Monday and dry weather likely continuing.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters call near-normal temperatures through the work week and the weekend warming trend "likely"; frost Friday night is only "possible" and Thursday's rain chance is slight (20%).

Read the NWS wording
- Isolated showers continue through the afternoon hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
primarily toward Mid-Missouri and across NW Missouri into
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
- Colder and breezy this evening and into tonight.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
with gusts up to 25 mph through the evening and
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Patchy drizzle will be possible tonight with lingering
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
will filter into the region overnight, with morning lows falling into the mid to upper 40s for most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
should linger into tomorrow, with skies finally beginning to
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoon
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
(although quite a bit of cloud cover should remain across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
northern and NE Missouri), with afternoon highs in the mid to
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows around 40 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
A warming trend is likely this weekend into early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to upper 60s by Monday with dry conditions likely persisting.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3

What to watch

Marginal risk of storms in the national storm outlook

Today (Northeast Missouri only)

The latest national storm outlook dropped almost the whole area from its marginal (low-end) storm risk, except northeast Missouri. Weak atmospheric energy has limited thunderstorms.

Patchy frost possible

Friday night into Saturday morning (Many locations (the NWS does not name specific areas))

Lows drop into the mid to upper 30s for many locations Friday night into Saturday morning, with some patchy frost possible.

Read the NWS wording
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
marginal risk (except for NE Missouri)
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm development
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3

Why the forecast might change

  • Another weather system is expected to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring more clouds and a slight (20%) chance of rain to an otherwise dry stretch.
  • High pressure settling overhead Friday into Friday night is expected to help temperatures drop, which could allow some patchy frost by Saturday morning in many locations. (Many locations)
Read the NWS wording
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3

What changed from the discussion before

  • The storm threat for today has faded. The earlier discussion mentioned a very low risk of strong to severe storms; now storms have been limited and the marginal risk remains only for northeast Missouri. (Whole area, except northeast Missouri still in a marginal risk)
  • The earlier discussion called Thursday through Saturday dry with no notable systems; now a system Thursday afternoon into Thursday night brings more clouds and a slight (20%) rain chance.
Read the NWS wording
Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm development
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
marginal risk (except for NE Missouri)
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
The rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving through the area through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:46 a.m. Tue Nov 3

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The Hazardous Weather Outlook shown here was issued early this morning and still lists today's storm chances, while the newer discussion says the storm risk has been removed for almost all of the area.
Read the NWS wording
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:54 a.m. discussion

Drizzle clears this morning, cool, cloudy and breezy. Near-normal temperatures likely through Friday, chilly Saturday morning (especially north central Missouri), likely warmer early next week.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4.

The forecast

  • This morning (Wednesday): Patchy drizzle early this morning will gradually clear out as cooler, drier air moves in.
  • Today (Wednesday): Cloudy for most of the day and feeling much more like fall, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.
  • Tonight (Wednesday night) (whole area except north of US 36): Clouds gradually clear from southwest to northeast tonight, except north of US 36, where clouds are expected to stay.
  • Thursday through Friday: Near-normal temperatures are likely, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s. A storm system passes by Thursday night, but the chance of rain stays low (<20%).
  • Saturday morning (whole area, especially north central Missouri): Colder, with lows in the low to mid 30s, especially in north central Missouri. Models give a <20% chance that temperatures drop below 32 degrees.
  • Early next week: Another warming trend is likely, with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s and dry weather expected to continue.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say near-normal temperatures through the end of the week and a warming trend early next week are likely. They say the chance of rain stays low (<20%), and models give a <20% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees Saturday morning.

Read the NWS wording
- Patchy drizzle will gradually clear out through the morning hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
conditions will start to dry
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Clouds will stick around for most of the day but will gradually
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
will feel much more like fall with values in the mid to upper 50s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
and breezy westerly winds.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
clear out from southwest to northeast tonight as the surface low
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
except for areas north of US 36
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The 500 mb low over the upper Midwest will progress slightly to the NE as another 500 mb low moves into the southern plains by Thursday night, resulting in a positively tilted trough across the central US.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Another warming trend is likely early next week with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s while dry conditions should persist.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Rain chances stay low late this week because little moisture is moving in and the air near the ground will be fairly dry.
  • Saturday morning lows are forecast in the low to mid 30s, especially in north central Missouri. Models give a <20% chance of dropping below 32 degrees. (whole area, especially north central Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4

What changed from the discussion before

  • Saturday morning lows are now forecast in the low to mid 30s, especially in north central Missouri, instead of the mid to upper 30s. The earlier mention of possible patchy frost is not in the new discussion. (whole area, especially north central Missouri)
  • Overnight lows through the end of the week are now forecast in the 40s instead of around 40 degrees.
  • The rain chance with Thursday night's system is now under 20% instead of 20%.
  • Clearing skies are now expected Wednesday night rather than Wednesday afternoon, except north of US 36. (whole area except north of US 36)
Read the NWS wording
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows around 40 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
clear out from southwest to northeast tonight as the surface low
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
except for areas north of US 36
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoon
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • A key message seems to be missing a word: it says "generally condition expected" through Saturday. The previous discussion said "generally dry conditions." The detailed discussion gives only a low (<20%) rain chance.
  • The new discussion does not say whether frost is possible Saturday morning. The previous discussion mentioned patchy frost.
  • The Hazardous Weather Outlook shown is from Tuesday morning, so its mention of shower and storm chances refers to Tuesday. It says the chance of widespread hazardous weather is low Wednesday through Monday.
Read the NWS wording
- Near normal temperatures with generally condition expected through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Near normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected tomorrow through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 4:59 a.m. discussion

Patchy drizzle clears this morning; cool, cloudy and breezy today, then near normal temperatures with generally dry conditions expected through Saturday.

From the NWS discussion issued 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4.

The forecast

  • This morning (Whole area; the cold front has moved through most of Missouri): The cold front has moved through most of Missouri, taking the showers with it. Patchy drizzle lingers early but will gradually clear out through the morning as cooler, drier air moves in.
  • Today: Cool and cloudy, feeling much more like fall, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.
  • Tonight (Most of the area; not north of US 36): Clouds gradually clear from southwest to northeast tonight, except for areas north of US 36, where clouds stay.
  • Thursday through Friday: Near normal temperatures are likely, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s. Weak moisture keeps the chance of rain low (<20%).
  • Saturday morning (Whole area, especially north central Missouri): High pressure brings colder lows in the low to mid 30s Saturday morning, especially in north central Missouri. There is a <20% chance temperatures drop below 32 degrees.
  • Early next week: Another warming trend is likely, with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s and dry conditions expected to continue.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters call near normal temperatures through the end of the week and the warm-up early next week "likely." They put the chance of rain at under 20%.

Read the NWS wording
the associated cold front has now moved through most of Missouri, taking the showers with it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Patchy drizzle will gradually clear out through the morning hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
conditions will start to dry out as WNW flow continues to bring cooler, drier air to the region
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Cool and cloudy for today with breezy westerly winds.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Highs today will feel much more like fall with values in the mid to upper 50s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
will gradually clear out from southwest to northeast tonight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
except for areas north of US 36
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Another warming trend is likely early next week with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s while dry conditions should persist.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Saturday morning lows are forecast in the low to mid 30s, especially for north central Missouri, but computer model runs give a <20% chance that temperatures drop below 32 degrees. (Whole area; lows in the low to mid 30s especially north central Missouri)
  • A second storm system moves into the southern Plains by Thursday night, but weak moisture and dry air near the ground keep the chance of rain low (<20%).
Read the NWS wording
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The 500 mb low over the upper Midwest will progress slightly to the NE as another 500 mb low moves into the southern plains by Thursday night, resulting in a positively tilted trough across the central US.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook was issued Tuesday, so its mention of shower and storm chances "today" refers to Tuesday, not today. It says the chance of widespread hazardous weather Wednesday through Monday is low.
Read the NWS wording
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:36 p.m. discussion

Cooler through Friday, with a 40-60% chance of lows at or below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning, especially northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4.

The forecast

  • Rest of today and tonight: Low clouds hang on, with possible isolated mist or sprinkles the rest of the day. Skies clear overnight, and lows stay in the low 40s. A west breeze should keep fog from forming.
  • Tonight into Thursday (Northern Missouri for rain chances; whole area otherwise): A cold front turns winds to the north/northwest and brings low clouds back by afternoon. Northern Missouri has a 15-25% chance of light rain or drizzle tonight into tomorrow. Daytime temperatures stay in the 50s.
  • Friday: North winds cool temperatures down more by the end of the work week.
  • Friday night into Saturday morning (Whole area; frost/freeze especially northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri): Lows are forecast in the low 30s and even the high 20s, with light winds. There is a 40-60% chance of lows at or below freezing, especially in northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri.
  • Late weekend into early next week: Drier and warmer, with no rain in the forecast and temperatures starting to warm into the 60s by the late weekend under clear skies.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters give a 40-60% chance of below-freezing lows Friday night into Saturday morning, and the most recent forecast model runs are trending colder. They say the trends need to keep being watched. Light rain chances in northern Missouri tomorrow are low (15-25%).

Read the NWS wording
isolated mist/sprinkles through the rest of the day
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
clearing out skies overnight tonight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
keep temperatures within the low 40s across the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
winds will remain just strong enough out of the west
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
mitigate any fog development overnight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Tomorrow, a cold front will drape southeastward from the retreating surface cyclone, shifting winds out of the north/northwest and reintroducing low clouds to the area by the afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Temperatures continue to cool through late week, with chances (15-25%) for light rain/drizzle across northern MO tonight/tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Temperatures remain in the 50s during the daytime, before winds shift out of the north with the oncoming surface high and cool temperatures down more by the end of the work week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
The current forecast shows that temperatures will fall to the low 30s and even the high 20s Friday night into Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Increasing chances (40-60%) for overnight lows at/below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Drier, warmer forecast by late weekend into early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Increasingly dry atmospheric profiles with building ridging from the west will keep precipitation out of the forecast, with temperatures beginning to warm into the 60s by the late weekend under clear skies.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Probabilistic guidance favors temperatures falling below freezing across these areas (40- 60%) , with recent guidance trending colder.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
With this frontal boundary, some low (15-25%) chances for additional light rain exists across northern MO, where greater moisture remains present through the vertical profile.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4

What to watch

Frost or freeze

Friday night into Saturday morning (Especially northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri)

Conditions look favorable for frost or freeze, especially in northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri. Frost/freeze alerts (watches, warnings or advisories) may need to be considered in the coming days.

Read the NWS wording
These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4

Why the forecast might change

  • If the colder trend in recent forecast model runs continues, frost/freeze alerts become more likely to be considered for Friday night into Saturday morning, especially in northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri. (Especially northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri)
  • The air is expected to dry out quickly Thursday, which would limit the light rain chances in northern Missouri. (Northern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
Probabilistic guidance favors temperatures falling below freezing across these areas (40- 60%) , with recent guidance trending colder.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
However, with increasing synoptic-scale subsidence on the back edge of the retreating trough and a building surface high during the day, the profile looks to quickly dry out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4

What changed from the discussion before

  • The chance of below-freezing lows Saturday morning rose from under 20% to 40-60%, especially in northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri. Expected lows went from low to mid 30s to low 30s and even high 20s. (Whole area; especially northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
- Increasing chances (40-60%) for overnight lows at/below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
The current forecast shows that temperatures will fall to the low 30s and even the high 20s Friday night into Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:25 a.m. Wed Nov 4

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The key messages give light rain/drizzle chances in northern Missouri for tonight and tomorrow, but the detailed discussion describes skies clearing overnight tonight and ties the rain chance to Thursday's cold front.
Read the NWS wording
- Temperatures continue to cool through late week, with chances (15-25%) for light rain/drizzle across northern MO tonight/tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
clearing out skies overnight tonight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
With this frontal boundary, some low (15-25%) chances for additional light rain exists across northern MO, where greater moisture remains present through the vertical profile.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.