Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
4 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters call near-normal temperatures through the work week and the weekend warming trend "likely"; frost Friday night is only "possible" and Thursday's rain chance is slight (20%).
- Isolated showers continue through the afternoon hours.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
primarily toward Mid-Missouri and across NW Missouri intoNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
- Colder and breezy this evening and into tonight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
with gusts up to 25 mph through the evening andNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Patchy drizzle will be possible tonight with lingeringNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
will filter into the region overnight, with morning lows falling into the mid to upper 40s for most locations.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
should linger into tomorrow, with skies finally beginning toNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoonNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
(although quite a bit of cloud cover should remain acrossNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
northern and NE Missouri), with afternoon highs in the mid toNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows around 40 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
A warming trend is likely this weekend into early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to upper 60s by Monday with dry conditions likely persisting.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
The latest national storm outlook dropped almost the whole area from its marginal (low-end) storm risk, except northeast Missouri. Weak atmospheric energy has limited thunderstorms.
Lows drop into the mid to upper 30s for many locations Friday night into Saturday morning, with some patchy frost possible.
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
marginal risk (except for NE Missouri)NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm developmentNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm developmentNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
marginal risk (except for NE Missouri)NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
The rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving through the area through Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:46 a.m. Tue Nov 3
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:47 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:54 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say near-normal temperatures through the end of the week and a warming trend early next week are likely. They say the chance of rain stays low (<20%), and models give a <20% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees Saturday morning.
- Patchy drizzle will gradually clear out through the morning hours.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
conditions will start to dryNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Clouds will stick around for most of the day but will graduallyNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
will feel much more like fall with values in the mid to upper 50sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
and breezy westerly winds.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
clear out from southwest to northeast tonight as the surface lowNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
except for areas north of US 36NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The 500 mb low over the upper Midwest will progress slightly to the NE as another 500 mb low moves into the southern plains by Thursday night, resulting in a positively tilted trough across the central US.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Another warming trend is likely early next week with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s while dry conditions should persist.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows around 40 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
clear out from southwest to northeast tonight as the surface lowNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
except for areas north of US 36NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoonNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
- Near normal temperatures with generally condition expected through Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:54 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Near normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected tomorrow through Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:32 p.m. Tue Nov 3
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 4:59 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters call near normal temperatures through the end of the week and the warm-up early next week "likely." They put the chance of rain at under 20%.
the associated cold front has now moved through most of Missouri, taking the showers with it.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Patchy drizzle will gradually clear out through the morning hours.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
conditions will start to dry out as WNW flow continues to bring cooler, drier air to the regionNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Cool and cloudy for today with breezy westerly winds.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Highs today will feel much more like fall with values in the mid to upper 50sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
will gradually clear out from southwest to northeast tonightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
except for areas north of US 36NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Near normal temperatures are likely to stick around through the end of the week with highs in the the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 40s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Another warming trend is likely early next week with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s while dry conditions should persist.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
The 500 mb low over the upper Midwest will progress slightly to the NE as another 500 mb low moves into the southern plains by Thursday night, resulting in a positively tilted trough across the central US.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
However, moisture transport will be weak and air near the surface will be relatively dry, keeping the chance of precipitation low (<20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 4:59 a.m. Wed Nov 4
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Nov 3
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:36 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters give a 40-60% chance of below-freezing lows Friday night into Saturday morning, and the most recent forecast model runs are trending colder. They say the trends need to keep being watched. Light rain chances in northern Missouri tomorrow are low (15-25%).
isolated mist/sprinkles through the rest of the dayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
clearing out skies overnight tonightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
keep temperatures within the low 40s across the areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
winds will remain just strong enough out of the westNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
mitigate any fog development overnightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Tomorrow, a cold front will drape southeastward from the retreating surface cyclone, shifting winds out of the north/northwest and reintroducing low clouds to the area by the afternoon.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Temperatures continue to cool through late week, with chances (15-25%) for light rain/drizzle across northern MO tonight/tomorrow.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Temperatures remain in the 50s during the daytime, before winds shift out of the north with the oncoming surface high and cool temperatures down more by the end of the work week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
The current forecast shows that temperatures will fall to the low 30s and even the high 20s Friday night into Saturday morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Increasing chances (40-60%) for overnight lows at/below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Drier, warmer forecast by late weekend into early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Increasingly dry atmospheric profiles with building ridging from the west will keep precipitation out of the forecast, with temperatures beginning to warm into the 60s by the late weekend under clear skies.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Probabilistic guidance favors temperatures falling below freezing across these areas (40- 60%) , with recent guidance trending colder.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
With this frontal boundary, some low (15-25%) chances for additional light rain exists across northern MO, where greater moisture remains present through the vertical profile.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Conditions look favorable for frost or freeze, especially in northeast Kansas and parts of northern/central Missouri. Frost/freeze alerts (watches, warnings or advisories) may need to be considered in the coming days.
These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Probabilistic guidance favors temperatures falling below freezing across these areas (40- 60%) , with recent guidance trending colder.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
However, with increasing synoptic-scale subsidence on the back edge of the retreating trough and a building surface high during the day, the profile looks to quickly dry out.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
- Increasing chances (40-60%) for overnight lows at/below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
The current forecast shows that temperatures will fall to the low 30s and even the high 20s Friday night into Saturday morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
The trough will continue to move east as high pressure builds in behind it Friday night into Saturday which will bring lows for Saturday morning into the low to mid 30s, especially for north central MO but ensemble guidance has <20% chance that temperatures will drop below 32 degrees.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:25 a.m. Wed Nov 4
- Temperatures continue to cool through late week, with chances (15-25%) for light rain/drizzle across northern MO tonight/tomorrow.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
clearing out skies overnight tonightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
With this frontal boundary, some low (15-25%) chances for additional light rain exists across northern MO, where greater moisture remains present through the vertical profile.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:36 p.m. Wed Nov 4
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.