A few showers and storms storms have been able

develop in the far western portions of our forecast area this

Continued destabilization throughout the afternoon

could present an isolated severe threat, but the greater severe

threat is still expected to arrive later in the evening.

Late this afternoon and evening, storms are expected to develop along the dryline in portions of Texas and Oklahoma before racing northeastward with the mid-level jet.

Over time, these storms are expected to grow upscale into a linear/QLCS mode.

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

Damaging winds and brief, weak line-embedded tornadoes are possible.

The line of storms will continue to progress eastward with a diminishing severe threat overnight.

Early Tuesday morning, a brief restrengthening is possible in the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally in the vicinity of the US-63 corridor ahead of the cold front.

Instability during this time looks especially weak, however, and with exceptionally strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 60-70 kts), it is hard to imagine that many (if any) updrafts will survive long enough to become strong or severe before being sheared apart.

- Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday.

Elsewhere, there may be some lingering scattered post-frontal showers/storms throughout the day.

Given the progressive nature of the incoming system, flash flooding concerns will likely be highly localized and limited to areas that experience especially heavy downpours in a very short amount of time...total accumulations by Tuesday evening are expected to be between 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible.

Generally lesser accumulations are expected in far northwest and central Missouri near US-63.

Much cooler, more seasonal temperatures are expected for the latter half of the week with daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the weekend.

- Cooler, fall-like temperatures expected midweek and through the weekend.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

they symbolize the challenges of the short-term forecast

monitoring of the environment in the extreme near term (next 1-2

hours or so) will be necessary.

ACARS soundings out of

KMCI showcase much weaker instability than what has been noted over

could present an isolated severe threat, but the greater severe

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

With such a powerful mid-level jet, storm motions of 50-60 knots are probable, enhancing the typical linear storm mode wind threat.

Needless to say, the forecast environment is certainly capable of mesovortex generation; as such, there is an elevated threat of brief line-embedded tornadoes this evening.

Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding issues.

Anomalously high PWATs around 1.75" could introduce some minor flooding concerns.

Given the progressive nature of the incoming system, flash flooding concerns will likely be highly localized and limited to areas that experience especially heavy downpours in a very short amount of time...total accumulations by Tuesday evening are expected to be between 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible.

Continued destabilization throughout the afternoon

could present an isolated severe threat

Early Tuesday morning, a brief restrengthening is possible in the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally in the vicinity of the US-63 corridor ahead of the cold front.

Instability during this time looks especially weak, however, and with exceptionally strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 60-70 kts), it is hard to imagine that many (if any) updrafts will survive long enough to become strong or severe before being sheared apart.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

Damaging winds and brief, weak line-embedded tornadoes are possible.

Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding issues.

- Strong to severe storms possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight.

Early Tuesday morning, a brief restrengthening is possible in the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally in the vicinity of the US-63 corridor ahead of the cold front.

Instability during this time looks especially weak, however, and with exceptionally strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 60-70 kts), it is hard to imagine that many (if any) updrafts will survive long enough to become strong or severe before being sheared apart.

Tuesday continues to look unsettled and may pose a sneaky severe risk with some instability ahead of the slow moving front late in the morning to early afternoon.

So it's something to keep an eye on but seems lower probability at this point with the greater risk for any additional severe weather well southeast of the forecast area.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

With 925mb temperatures near 0C, this could support some wintry precipitation.

Given the progressive nature of the incoming system, flash flooding concerns will likely be highly localized and limited to areas that experience especially heavy downpours in a very short amount of time...total accumulations by Tuesday evening are expected to be between 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible.

Generally lesser accumulations are expected in far northwest and central Missouri near US-63.

Generally lesser accumulations are expected in far northwest and central Missouri near US-63.

- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.

- Seasonable conditions expected from midweek through the weekend.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, cooler but more seasonable conditions settle into the area.

Normal highs for the area now in the upper 50s and our forecast shows highs within a few degrees of our normals through the weekend.

The rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving through the area through Saturday.

This is considerably further east than yesterday and by early next week, upper ridging begins to build into the area, leading to temperatures trending above normal.

This may result in low-topped convection and given the very strong shear may lead to low-topped supercells late this morning to early this afternoon.

There are some caveats with this.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

This may result in low-topped convection and given the very strong shear may lead to low-topped supercells late this morning to early this afternoon.

This risk appears greatest just northeast of the apparent triple point from far northeastern Kansas into far northwestern Missouri.

- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.

There are some caveats with this.

1) This system is almost vertically stacked, which is less favorable than having an offset surface low and triple point of about 100-200 miles.

2) shear is extremely strong and mostly unidirectional, which may just rip apart updrafts.

The upper system responsible for the storms and the severe weather risk on Monday (that fortunately didn't materialize in our forecast area)

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

The GFS continues to show a robust wave diving into the eastern half of the CONUS.

This is considerably further east than yesterday and by early next week, upper ridging begins to build into the area, leading to temperatures trending above normal.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

The rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving through the area through Saturday.

- Isolated showers continue through the afternoon hours.

primarily toward Mid-Missouri and across NW Missouri into

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

- Colder and breezy this evening and into tonight.

with gusts up to 25 mph through the evening and

Patchy drizzle will be possible tonight with lingering

will filter into the region overnight, with morning lows falling into the mid to upper 40s for most locations.

should linger into tomorrow, with skies finally beginning to

clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoon

(although quite a bit of cloud cover should remain across

northern and NE Missouri), with afternoon highs in the mid to

upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.

Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).

Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows around 40 degrees.

High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.

A warming trend is likely this weekend into early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to upper 60s by Monday with dry conditions likely persisting.

convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the

marginal risk (except for NE Missouri)

Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm development

High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.

Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).

High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible.

Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm development

convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the

marginal risk (except for NE Missouri)

- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.

Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%).

The rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving through the area through Saturday.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.

convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the