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Archive: Thursday, November 12, 2026.

What wxexplained showed that day so far. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

No watches, warnings or advisories for the Kansas City points that day.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

Shown when the day began (up since 1:41 p.m. Wed Nov 11)

Gusty winds until sunset, possible sprinkles Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49, likely first hard freeze Friday morning in northern Missouri, then a chilly weekend.

From the NWS discussion issued 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11.

The forecast

  • Wednesday afternoon into this evening: Temperatures reached the 60s this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, continue until about sunset, then ease.
  • Thursday, 6 AM to 12 PM (Along and east of I-29/I-49 (northern Missouri)): Along and east of I-29/I-49 in northern Missouri, a 25-30% chance of a few sprinkles, or perhaps a bit of drizzle, from 6 AM to noon. Dry Thursday afternoon.
  • Thursday: A second cold front brings cooler air, with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
  • Thursday night into Friday morning (Northern Missouri): Winds become very light (less than 5 mph) and skies clear. Lows in the upper 20s to around 30F across northern Missouri, likely the first hard freeze of the year.
  • Friday through the weekend: Steady, chilly weather: highs mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s, lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s each night, 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
  • Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (Along and south of the Missouri River): A 20-30% chance of precipitation along and south of the Missouri River.
  • First half of next week: Temperatures climb back toward, or slightly above, normal (mid-50s).

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say the hard freeze Friday morning is likely. Thursday morning sprinkles are only a 25-30% chance. Where Sunday-Monday precipitation falls is still uncertain because computer models keep shifting it south.

Read the NWS wording
clear skies have allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This is expected to continue through sunset this
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
While the best forcing will remain east of the area, closer to the core of the shortwave, enough lift may (25-30% chance) be present across northern MO to squeeze some sprinkles, or perhaps a bit of drizzle, out of the low-level clouds that are expected to be present tomorrow morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
The most favorable timing for this looks to be between 6 AM and 12 PM for areas along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
As the shortwave continues to move southeast, forcing will subside and the forecast returns to a dry state tomorrow afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This second cold front will also bring another shot of cooler air to the area, which will help to limit high temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
High pressure begins to build into the Lower Missouri River Valley tomorrow afternoon, which will allow winds to become very light (less than 5 mph) and skies to clear through the overnight period.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will likely result in the first hard freeze of the year, however, with the growing season already behind us, no Frost/Freeze products will be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Highs will largely be in the upper 40s and lower 50s each day, with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s each night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This forecast is 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normals for this time of year.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow temperatures to climb back towards, or sightly above, seasonal normals (mid-50s) through the first half of next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Model guidance has been shifting this feature further south with each run, so trends will need to be monitored over the coming forecast cycles to determine the exact placement of any precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

What to watch

Hard freeze

Friday morning (Northern Missouri)

The first hard freeze of the year is likely in northern Missouri Friday morning. No Frost or Freeze warnings will be issued because the growing season is over, but protect sensitive outdoor plants. No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect.

Read the NWS wording
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will likely result in the first hard freeze of the year, however, with the growing season already behind us, no Frost/Freeze products will be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will still be a situation to protect any sensitive outdoor plants despite the lack of any headlines.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

Why the forecast might change

  • Computer models have moved the Sunday-Monday system farther south with each run, so where any precipitation falls could still shift. (Along and south of the Missouri River)
Read the NWS wording
Model guidance has been shifting this feature further south with each run, so trends will need to be monitored over the coming forecast cycles to determine the exact placement of any precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

What changed from the discussion before

  • The new discussion calls the hard freeze likely Friday morning only; the earlier one said Friday and Saturday mornings. Friday morning lows are now upper 20s to around 30F across northern Missouri, versus mid 20s before. (Friday morning: northern Missouri (new); much of the state (old))
  • Thursday highs are now upper 40s and lower 50s, versus mid 40s to low 50s before. A chance of Thursday morning sprinkles along and east of I-29/I-49 was added.
  • For Sunday into Monday, the chance is now 20-30% along and south of the Missouri River; before, the best chances were described as south and west of the area. (Along and south of the Missouri River)
Read the NWS wording
The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This second cold front will also bring another shot of cooler air to the area, which will help to limit high temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The new discussion calls a hard freeze likely only for Friday morning, but still forecasts lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s each night through the weekend; the earlier outlook also said Saturday morning. Whether Saturday morning brings a hard freeze isn't stated.
  • Friday morning's freezing lows are given only for northern Missouri; the discussion doesn't say how cold other parts of the area get that morning.
Read the NWS wording
The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Highs will largely be in the upper 40s and lower 50s each day, with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s each night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

The numbers then

  • Wed66° 43°Sunny8% precip.
  • Thu50° 30°Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny10% precip.
  • Fri47° 28°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat49° 37°Mostly Sunny3% precip.
  • Sun50° 35°Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Rain20% precip.
  • Mon51° 36°Sunny1% precip.
  • Tue55° 41°Sunny2% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 12:26 p.m. Wed Nov 11).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 16–20

Temperature: 70% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 40% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 18–24

Temperature: 50% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 60% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

Shown from 2:41 a.m.

Much colder through the weekend, with a hard freeze across the region Saturday morning; temperatures return at or slightly above seasonal norms next week.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12.

The forecast

  • Today (Thursday) (Whole area; northern and central Missouri noted): Much cooler. Another push of arctic air arrives this morning. Temperatures warm only five to seven degrees during the day in northern Missouri, and closer to 10 degrees in central Missouri.
  • Tonight (Thursday night): Clearing skies bring the coolest night of the season so far, with lows in the upper 20s in most places. A light north breeze makes it feel like the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated spots.
  • Friday through Saturday morning (Whole area; greatest chance east of I-35): Friday stays colder than normal. Clear skies and light winds Friday night bring a hard freeze across the region Saturday morning, with a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees, greatest east of I-35.
  • This weekend (Saturday and Sunday): A system may bring rain to the southern Plains on Sunday, but dry air will likely keep our area dry through the weekend, with any rain staying to the south.
  • Early next week through midweek: Temperatures return to at or slightly above normal, with highs in the mid 50s and lows near freezing. Dry through the first half of the week.
  • Late next week: There may be a chance of light rain late next week.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters give a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees Saturday morning and say the weekend will likely stay dry. Rain late next week is only a possibility.

Read the NWS wording
- Much cooler conditions expected today through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
arctic air is anticipated to arrive this morning
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
only lead to a five to seven
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
degree diurnal curve across northern Missouri, and closer to 10
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
degrees of warming across central Missouri today
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region on Friday keeping temperatures below seasonal norms for this time of year.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
- Temperatures returning at or slightly above seasonal norms next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Temperatures return closer to seasonal norms early next week with omega block developing across the central US keeping the region dry through the first half of the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

What to watch

Hard freeze and cold wind chills

Tonight into Friday morning

The Hazardous Weather Outlook says a hard freeze is likely Friday morning. Tonight lows reach the upper 20s in most places, with wind chills in the lower 20s, perhaps upper teens in isolated spots.

Hard freeze

Friday night into Saturday morning (Whole area; greatest chance east of I-35)

A hard freeze is expected across the region Saturday morning, with a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees, highest east of I-35. No watches, warnings or advisories are listed for Missouri or Kansas.

Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

Why the forecast might change

  • Sunday's rain is expected to stay south because of dry air; forecasters say the region will likely, not certainly, stay dry.
  • Whether light rain arrives late next week depends on a West Coast weather system weakening and moving northeast.
Read the NWS wording
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

What changed from the discussion before

  • The hard freeze is now highlighted for Saturday morning. The previous discussion said the first hard freeze was likely Friday morning; now Friday morning lows are given as upper 20s in most places.
  • The earlier 20-30% rain chance for Sunday afternoon into Monday morning along and south of the Missouri River is gone; the region is now likely to stay dry through the weekend. (Previously along and south of the Missouri River; now whole area)
  • The earlier chance of a few sprinkles this (Thursday) morning along and east of I-29/I-49 is not mentioned in the new discussion. (Previously along and east of I-29/I-49)
Read the NWS wording
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Much cooler conditions expected today through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Nov 11

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook (issued Wednesday) says a hard freeze is likely both Friday and Saturday mornings, but the new discussion names only Saturday morning, giving Friday morning lows in the upper 20s.
Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

The numbers then

  • Tonight 42°Mostly Clear4% precip.
  • Thu49° 30°Sunny3% precip.
  • Fri46° 25°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat48° 33°Mostly Sunny1% precip.
  • Sun50° 33°Mostly Sunny5% precip.
  • Mon53° 34°Sunny0% precip.
  • Tue57° 41°Sunny0% precip.
  • Wed59°Mostly Sunny6% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 1:41 a.m. Thu Nov 12).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 17–21

Temperature: 60% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 50% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 19–25

Temperature: 40% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 50% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

Shown from 5:11 a.m.

Much colder through the weekend, with a hard freeze likely region-wide Saturday morning. Temperatures return near normal and dry early next week.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12.

The forecast

  • Today (Thursday) (Whole area; northern and central Missouri named; clouds east of Highway 65): Much cooler as more arctic air arrives this morning. Temperatures rise only five to seven degrees across northern Missouri, about 10 degrees across central Missouri. Clouds east of Highway 65 should clear tonight.
  • Tonight (Thursday night): Clear skies bring the coolest night of the season so far, with lows in the upper 20s in most places. A light north breeze makes it feel like the lower 20s, perhaps upper teens in a few spots.
  • Friday: High pressure from Canada keeps temperatures below normal for this time of year.
  • Friday night into Saturday morning (Whole area, greatest chance east of I-35): Clear skies and light winds bring the coolest temperatures of the season and a hard freeze across the region: a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees F, most likely east of I-35.
  • Sunday and the rest of the weekend (Whole area; rain chance is in the southern Plains): A system may bring rain to the southern Plains Sunday, but dry air should likely keep our area dry through the weekend, with rain chances staying to the south.
  • Early to mid next week: Temperatures return to near or slightly above normal, with highs in the mid 50s and lows near freezing. Dry through the first half of the week.
  • Late next week: Possibly a chance of light rain.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters give a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees Saturday morning and say the weekend will likely stay dry. Rain late next week is only a possibility. The hazardous weather outlook calls the chance of widespread hazardous weather low.

Read the NWS wording
- Much cooler conditions expected today through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
arctic air is anticipated to arrive this morning
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
cooling temperatures aloft will only lead to a five to seven
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
degree diurnal curve across northern Missouri, and closer to 10
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
degrees of warming across central Missouri today.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
development east of highway
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
65 which is expected to rapidly dissipate with the loss of
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region on Friday keeping temperatures below seasonal norms for this time of year.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
- Temperatures returning at or slightly above seasonal norms next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Temperatures return closer to seasonal norms early next week with omega block developing across the central US keeping the region dry through the first half of the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Thu Nov 12

What to watch

Hard freeze

Friday night into Saturday morning (Whole area, greatest chance east of I-35)

A hard freeze is expected region-wide, with a 50-90% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees F, most likely east of I-35. No watches, warnings or advisories are listed for Missouri or Kansas.

Cold wind chills

Tonight (Thursday night) (Whole area; upper teens only in isolated spots)

A light north breeze will make it feel like the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated spots.

Read the NWS wording
Hard freeze Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

Why the forecast might change

  • Sunday's rain is expected to stay in the southern Plains; dry air should likely keep our area dry, so a change in that system could matter. (Whole area; rain chance is in the southern Plains)
  • Whether light rain develops late next week depends on how a West Coast weather system weakens and moves northeast.
Read the NWS wording
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

What changed from the discussion before

  • The hard freeze is now highlighted for Saturday morning. The previous discussion said the first hard freeze was likely Friday morning; this one calls Friday morning the coldest night so far, upper 20s, without saying hard freeze.
  • The previous discussion gave a 20-30% rain chance Sunday afternoon into Monday morning along and south of the Missouri River. Now the weekend is likely dry here, with rain chances staying south. (Previously along and south of the Missouri River; now whole area)
Read the NWS wording
Hard freeze Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Nov 11

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The discussion calls tonight the coolest night of the season, then also calls Friday night into Saturday morning the coolest of the season; it does not say whether tonight's upper-20s lows count as a freeze.
Read the NWS wording
The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12
Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Thu Nov 12

The numbers then

  • Tonight 42°Mostly Clear4% precip.
  • Thu49° 30°Sunny3% precip.
  • Fri46° 25°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat48° 33°Mostly Sunny1% precip.
  • Sun50° 33°Mostly Sunny5% precip.
  • Mon53° 34°Sunny0% precip.
  • Tue57° 41°Sunny0% precip.
  • Wed59°Mostly Sunny6% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 1:41 a.m. Thu Nov 12).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 17–21

Temperature: 60% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 50% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 19–25

Temperature: 40% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 50% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.