wxexplained
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Archive: Wednesday, November 11, 2026.

What wxexplained showed that day. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

No watches, warnings or advisories for the Kansas City points that day.

5 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

Shown when the day began (up since 3:22 p.m. Tue Nov 10)

The NWS discussion issued 3:10 p.m. Tue Nov 10

The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.

Key messages

- Well above normal temperatures today.

- Cold front moves through tomorrow morning, bringing in cooler
  temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A
  region wide freeze is likely both Thursday night and Friday
  night.

- Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least
  Saturday.

Discussion

Current H5 analysis shows west northwesterly flow in place over
the region, with a shortwave trough traversing east southeast
out of the northern High Plains. At the surface, a subtle pseudo
stationary front is draped west to east near the Interstate 70
corridor, with a 1022 mb high centered over Iowa. This has
resulted in clear skies, light and variable winds, and
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 2 PM. Some
patchy fog may be possible early Wednesday morning, with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave trough across the
northern High Plains will quickly move eastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday morning and dig further
south into the Central CONUS by Wednesday afternoon, with the
accompanying surface low moving eastward across Iowa and into
north central Illinois. This will send a cold front through the
CWA tomorrow morning, with winds turning westerly and eventually
northwesterly. Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning,
with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph through mid afternoon. Cold
air advection behind the front will yield cooler temperatures
for tomorrow, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the upper
50s to mid 60s. Winds should begin to relax by tomorrow evening
as the pressure gradient slackens, and light winds and mostly
clear skies Wednesday night into Thursday morning should allow
for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A reinforcing shot of even colder and drier air should move
north to south through the region Thursday morning, yielding
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday afternoon. With
light winds and mostly clear skies again Thursday night, the
entire CWA is forecast to dip below freezing early Friday
morning. Due to the growing season being over, we will not be
issuing any frost/freeze products for portions of the CWA that
have not received a freeze yet. Surface high pressure builds in
directly overhead on Friday, with the region still under the
influence of the deep closed mid/upper low over the Great Lakes
and northerly flow aloft. Highs for Friday should only reach the
mid 40s to lower 50s, with another freeze expected CWA wide
Friday night into Saturday morning.

At least marginally warmer temperatures are probable this
weekend into early next week, but just how much warmer is
unknown at this time. NBM MaxT 25th and 75th percentiles for MCI
on Sunday is 48 degrees and 59 degrees, respectively, with 49
and 61 degrees, respectively, for Monday. Some guidance wants to
bring a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Sunday,
which will bring in some chance PoPs (20% to 30%).

Eax watches/warnings/advisories

MO...None.
KS...None.

The numbers then

  • Today71° 51°Sunny0% precip.
  • Wed63° 41°Sunny0% precip.
  • Thu51° 31°Mostly Sunny0% precip.
  • Fri47° 31°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat51° 40°Mostly Sunny14% precip.
  • Sun53° 41°Chance Light Rain25% precip.
  • Mon55° 41°Mostly Sunny6% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 1:56 p.m. Tue Nov 10).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 16–20

Temperature: 70% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 40% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 18–24

Temperature: 50% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 60% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

Shown from 3:12 a.m.

Wednesday is the last warm day, with gusty winds. A hard freeze is likely Friday and Saturday mornings; no freeze alerts will be issued, so protect sensitive plants.

From the NWS discussion issued 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11.

The forecast

  • Wednesday (today) (Whole area; cold front passes through Missouri in the morning): The last unseasonably warm day, 10-15 degrees above average. A cold front passes through Missouri in the morning and winds turn from southwest to northwest. Highs still reach the 60s.
  • Wednesday afternoon and evening: Windy, with winds of 15-20kts (knots) and gusts approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts (knots). Winds die down in the evening.
  • Wednesday night and Thursday: A second cold front from the north brings colder air overnight and through the day Thursday. Highs only reach the mid 40s to low 50s.
  • Thursday night into Friday morning (Much of the state; more clouds in eastern Missouri): Mostly clear skies, with more clouds in eastern Missouri. Much of the state drops below freezing, down to the mid 20s. Protect sensitive plants.
  • Friday, then Friday night into Saturday morning: Friday's temperatures stay in the 40s. Temperatures fall below freezing again overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
  • Saturday: Quiet weather during the day Saturday.
  • Sunday into Monday (Whole area; highest chances to the south and west): Rain may return Sunday into Monday. The best chances are south and west of the area; how much and where will become clearer closer to the weekend.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters call a hard freeze likely Friday and Saturday mornings. The Sunday-Monday rain is less certain: it 'may' happen, and amounts and coverage will become clearer closer to the weekend.

Read the NWS wording
Today will be the last day of unseasonably warm temperatures (10-15
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
cold front will pass through Missouri during the morning hours,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
which will result in a wind shift from southwest to northwest.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures will still be able to climb into the 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
wind speeds increasing to 15-20kts, with gusts
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds die down in the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
evening as the low continues
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
front the north will progress into our region.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
cold air advection to increase overnight and throughout the day
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Regardless, any sensitive plants will need to be protected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The trough will continue to dig, and temperatures will remain in the 40s as the jet will keep milder temperatures to our south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures below freezing are expected overnight Friday into Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The weather will remain quiet during the day on Saturday as we continue to see influence from our airmass from the north with response from the jet stream and surface high pressure north of Lake Superior.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11

What to watch

Hard freeze

Thursday night into Friday morning, and Friday night into Saturday morning (Much of the state Thursday night into Friday morning; no area given for Friday night into Saturday morning)

A hard freeze is likely. Thursday night much of the state drops to the mid 20s; Friday night temperatures fall below freezing again. No frost or freeze alerts will be issued since the usual first hard-freeze date has passed, so protect sensitive plants.

Gusty winds

Wednesday

Windy Wednesday, with gusts approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts (knots), easing in the evening.

No watches, warnings or advisories

Now (Missouri and Kansas)

No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect for the Missouri or Kansas parts of the area.

Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures below freezing are expected overnight Friday into Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Since the climatological date for our first hard-freeze has passed, any type of issuance to reflect a frost/freeze headline will not be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Regardless, any sensitive plants will need to be protected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Windy conditions Wednesday, with gusts approaching 30kts.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds die down in the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11

Why the forecast might change

  • Whether rain reaches the area Sunday into Monday, and how much, depends on a passing disturbance; the best chances are south and west of the area. (Whole area; highest chances to the south and west)
  • More clouds are expected in eastern Missouri Thursday night, while the freeze is described for much of the state. (Eastern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11

What changed from the discussion before

  • The freeze is now called a hard freeze, likely Friday and Saturday mornings, with Thursday night lows given as the mid 20s for much of the state. The previous discussion said the entire area would dip below freezing early Friday. (Much of the state)
  • Wednesday's gusts are now given in knots: approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. The previous discussion gave them in miles per hour: 25 to 30 mph. The units differ, so the numbers aren't directly comparable.
  • Thursday highs are now the mid 40s to low 50s. The previous discussion said the upper 40s to lower 50s.
  • The possible rain now extends from Sunday into Monday, with the best chances placed south and west of the area. The previous discussion gave a 20% to 30% chance on Sunday. (Whole area; highest chances to the south and west)
Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
With light winds and mostly clear skies again Thursday night, the entire CWA is forecast to dip below freezing early Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph through mid afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
A reinforcing shot of even colder and drier air should move north to south through the region Thursday morning, yielding highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Some guidance wants to bring a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Sunday, which will bring in some chance PoPs (20% to 30%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • For Thursday night, the discussion says 'much of the state' will freeze but does not say which parts might not. The previous discussion said the entire area would.
  • The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook, from Tuesday, mentions a possible widespread freeze only on Saturday morning, while the new discussion calls a hard freeze likely on both Friday and Saturday mornings.
Read the NWS wording
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11
With light winds and mostly clear skies again Thursday night, the entire CWA is forecast to dip below freezing early Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
- Chances for a widespread freeze possible Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Tue Nov 10
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:06 a.m. Wed Nov 11

The numbers then

  • Tonight 51°Mostly Clear0% precip.
  • Wed65° 42°Sunny0% precip.
  • Thu50° 30°Sunny0% precip.
  • Fri46° 30°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat49° 36°Mostly Sunny2% precip.
  • Sun49° 35°Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Light Rain27% precip.
  • Mon51° 37°Sunny7% precip.
  • Tue54°Sunny0% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 12:26 a.m. Wed Nov 11).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 16–20

Temperature: 70% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 40% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 18–24

Temperature: 50% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 60% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

Shown from 5:12 a.m.

Last warm, windy day Wednesday; much colder Thursday, with a hard freeze likely Friday and Saturday mornings. Rain may return Sunday into Monday.

From the NWS discussion issued 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11.

The forecast

  • Wednesday (today) (whole area; cold front passes through Missouri): The last unseasonably warm day, 10-15 degrees above average, with highs still in the 60s. A morning cold front through Missouri turns winds from southwest to northwest. Warmth ends in the afternoon.
  • Wednesday daytime into evening: Windy: winds of 15-20kts (knots), with gusts approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. Winds die down in the evening.
  • Wednesday night through Thursday: A second cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thursday highs are only expected to reach the mid 40s to low 50s.
  • Thursday night into Friday morning (much of Missouri ('much of the state'); more clouds in eastern Missouri): Mostly clear skies, with more clouds in eastern Missouri. Much of the state drops below freezing, down to the mid 20s.
  • Friday into Saturday morning: Friday temperatures stay in the 40s. Temperatures below freezing are expected again overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
  • Saturday: Quiet weather during the day Saturday.
  • Sunday into Monday (whole area; highest chances south and west of the area): Rain may return Sunday into Monday. The highest chances are to the south and west of the area; amounts and coverage here will become clearer closer to the weekend.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say a hard freeze is likely Friday and Saturday mornings. Rain Sunday into Monday is only a 'may', with amounts and coverage still unclear. The outlook says the chance of widespread hazardous weather Thursday through Tuesday is low.

Read the NWS wording
Today will be the last day of unseasonably warm temperatures (10-15 degrees above average)
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures will still be able to climb into the 60s as the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
a cold front will pass through Missouri during the morning hours,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
which will result in a wind shift from southwest to northwest.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Warm temperatures come to an end Wednesday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
will result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kts, with gusts
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. Winds die down in the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
evening as the low continues to progress to the east.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Wednesday night into Thursday morning time frame, a secondary cold
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Because of this cold surge, highs on Thursday are only
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The trough will continue to dig, and temperatures will remain in the 40s as the jet will keep milder temperatures to our south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures below freezing are expected overnight Friday into Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The weather will remain quiet during the day on Saturday as we continue to see influence from our airmass from the north with response from the jet stream and surface high pressure north of Lake Superior.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11

What to watch

Hard freeze

Friday morning and Saturday morning (Friday morning: much of Missouri ('much of the state'), more clouds in eastern Missouri; Saturday morning: no area given)

A hard freeze is likely. Friday morning, much of Missouri drops to the mid 20s. No frost/freeze alert will be issued since the usual first hard-freeze date has passed, but protect sensitive plants. No alerts are in effect.

Strong wind gusts

Wednesday, easing in the evening

Windy conditions, with gusts approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts (knots), before winds die down in the evening.

Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Since the climatological date for our first hard-freeze has passed, any type of issuance to reflect a frost/freeze headline will not be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Regardless, any sensitive plants will need to be protected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Windy conditions Wednesday, with gusts approaching 30kts.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. Winds die down in the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
evening as the low continues to progress to the east.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11

Why the forecast might change

  • Whether rain Sunday into Monday reaches the area, and how much, is not yet known; the highest chances are south and west, and it will become clearer closer to the weekend. (whole area; highest chances south and west of the area)
  • More clouds are expected in eastern Missouri Thursday night into Friday morning, while mostly clear skies allow much of the state to drop below freezing. (eastern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11

What changed from the discussion before

  • The freeze is now called a hard freeze, likely Friday and Saturday mornings, with much of Missouri below freezing, down to the mid 20s, Friday morning. Before, a region-wide freeze was likely Thursday night and Friday night. (Friday morning: much of Missouri ('much of the state'); Saturday morning: no area given)
  • Rain now may return Sunday into Monday, with highest chances south and west of the area. The previous discussion gave a 20% to 30% chance Sunday from a system into the Southern Plains. (highest chances south and west of the area; coverage for our area not yet clear)
  • Thursday highs are now expected in the mid 40s to low 50s; before, the upper 40s to lower 50s.
  • Wednesday gusts are now given as approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts (knots); before, as high as 25 to 30 mph. Wednesday highs: now in the 60s; before, upper 50s to mid 60s.
Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
A region wide freeze is likely both Thursday night and Friday night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Some guidance wants to bring a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Sunday, which will bring in some chance PoPs (20% to 30%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
A reinforcing shot of even colder and drier air should move north to south through the region Thursday morning, yielding highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. Winds die down in the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures will still be able to climb into the 60s as the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph through mid afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10
Cold air advection behind the front will yield cooler temperatures for tomorrow, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The Thursday night freeze is described for 'much of the state' (Missouri), so it's unclear whether the eastern Kansas counties are included that night; the key message gives no area.
  • The new discussion gives wind in knots, the previous in mph, so the two wind forecasts aren't directly comparable.
Read the NWS wording
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. Winds die down in the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:05 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph through mid afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:44 p.m. Tue Nov 10

The numbers then

  • Tonight 51°Mostly Clear0% precip.
  • Wed65° 42°Sunny0% precip.
  • Thu50° 30°Sunny0% precip.
  • Fri46° 30°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat49° 36°Mostly Sunny2% precip.
  • Sun49° 35°Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Light Rain27% precip.
  • Mon51° 37°Sunny7% precip.
  • Tue54°Sunny0% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 12:26 a.m. Wed Nov 11).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 16–20

Temperature: 70% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 40% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 18–24

Temperature: 50% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 60% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

Shown from 11:41 a.m.

Windy, warm Wednesday gives way to much colder air; a hard freeze is likely Friday and Saturday mornings, so protect sensitive plants.

From the NWS discussion issued 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11.

The forecast

  • Wednesday (today) (whole area; cold front passes through Missouri): The last unusually warm day, 10-15 degrees above average, with highs in the 60s. A morning cold front through Missouri turns winds from southwest to northwest. Windy, 15-20kts (knots), with gusts approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts.
  • Wednesday evening and night: Winds die down in the evening. A second cold front arrives from the north Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing colder air overnight.
  • Thursday: Colder air keeps pouring in. Highs only in the mid 40s to low 50s.
  • Thursday night into Friday morning (much of the state; more clouds in eastern Missouri): Mostly clear skies, with more clouds in eastern Missouri. Much of the state drops below freezing, down to the mid 20s.
  • Friday and Friday night into Saturday morning: Temperatures stay in the 40s Friday. Below-freezing temperatures are expected again overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
  • Saturday: Quiet weather during the day Saturday.
  • Sunday into Monday (whole area; best chances to the south and west): Rain may return Sunday into Monday. The best chances are south and west of the area; how much and where is not yet clear.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters call a hard freeze likely Friday and Saturday mornings. Rain Sunday into Monday is only a maybe, with amounts and coverage still unclear. The outlook says the chance of widespread hazardous weather Thursday through Tuesday is low.

Read the NWS wording
Today will be the last day of unseasonably warm temperatures
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
(10-15 degrees above average)
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
able to climb into the 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
a cold front will pass through
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Missouri during the morning hours, which will result in a wind
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
shift from southwest to northwest.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
speeds increasing to 15-20kts, with gusts approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds die down in the evening as the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
night into Thursday morning time frame, a secondary cold front
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
cold air advection to increase overnight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Thursday. Because of this cold surge, highs on Thursday are only
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The trough will continue to dig, and temperatures will remain in the 40s as the jet will keep milder temperatures to our south.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures below freezing are expected overnight Friday into Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The weather will remain quiet during the day on Saturday as we continue to see influence from our airmass from the north with response from the jet stream and surface high pressure north of Lake Superior.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday into Monday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11

What to watch

Hard freeze

Friday and Saturday mornings (much of the state Friday morning; no area given for Saturday morning)

Hard freeze likely. Friday morning, much of the state dips to the mid 20s; Saturday morning, below freezing expected. No frost/freeze warning will be issued since the usual first hard-freeze date passed, but protect sensitive plants.

Strong winds

Wednesday, easing in the evening

Windy conditions Wednesday, with gusts approaching 30kts (knots), dying down in the evening.

Read the NWS wording
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures below freezing are expected overnight Friday into Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Since the climatological date for our first hard-freeze has passed, any type of issuance to reflect a frost/freeze headline will not be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Regardless, any sensitive plants will need to be protected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
- Windy conditions Wednesday, with gusts approaching 30kts.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Winds die down in the evening as the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11

Why the forecast might change

  • Whether rain reaches the area Sunday into Monday, and how much, should become clearer closer to the weekend. (whole area; best chances to the south and west)
Read the NWS wording
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The discussion says "much of the state" will drop below freezing Thursday night into Friday morning but doesn't say which parts; it only notes more clouds in eastern Missouri.
  • The discussion doesn't give a high temperature for Saturday or low temperatures after Saturday morning.
Read the NWS wording
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The weather will remain quiet during the day on Saturday as we continue to see influence from our airmass from the north with response from the jet stream and surface high pressure north of Lake Superior.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11

The numbers then

  • Wed65° 42°Sunny0% precip.
  • Thu50° 30°Sunny0% precip.
  • Fri46° 30°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat49° 36°Mostly Sunny2% precip.
  • Sun49° 35°Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Light Rain27% precip.
  • Mon51° 37°Sunny7% precip.
  • Tue54° 42°Sunny1% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 6:47 a.m. Wed Nov 11).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 16–20

Temperature: 70% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 40% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 18–24

Temperature: 50% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 60% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.

Shown from 1:41 p.m.

Gusty winds until sunset, possible sprinkles Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49, likely first hard freeze Friday morning in northern Missouri, then a chilly weekend.

From the NWS discussion issued 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11.

The forecast

  • Wednesday afternoon into this evening: Temperatures reached the 60s this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, continue until about sunset, then ease.
  • Thursday, 6 AM to 12 PM (Along and east of I-29/I-49 (northern Missouri)): Along and east of I-29/I-49 in northern Missouri, a 25-30% chance of a few sprinkles, or perhaps a bit of drizzle, from 6 AM to noon. Dry Thursday afternoon.
  • Thursday: A second cold front brings cooler air, with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
  • Thursday night into Friday morning (Northern Missouri): Winds become very light (less than 5 mph) and skies clear. Lows in the upper 20s to around 30F across northern Missouri, likely the first hard freeze of the year.
  • Friday through the weekend: Steady, chilly weather: highs mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s, lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s each night, 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
  • Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (Along and south of the Missouri River): A 20-30% chance of precipitation along and south of the Missouri River.
  • First half of next week: Temperatures climb back toward, or slightly above, normal (mid-50s).

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say the hard freeze Friday morning is likely. Thursday morning sprinkles are only a 25-30% chance. Where Sunday-Monday precipitation falls is still uncertain because computer models keep shifting it south.

Read the NWS wording
clear skies have allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This is expected to continue through sunset this
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
While the best forcing will remain east of the area, closer to the core of the shortwave, enough lift may (25-30% chance) be present across northern MO to squeeze some sprinkles, or perhaps a bit of drizzle, out of the low-level clouds that are expected to be present tomorrow morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
The most favorable timing for this looks to be between 6 AM and 12 PM for areas along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
As the shortwave continues to move southeast, forcing will subside and the forecast returns to a dry state tomorrow afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This second cold front will also bring another shot of cooler air to the area, which will help to limit high temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
High pressure begins to build into the Lower Missouri River Valley tomorrow afternoon, which will allow winds to become very light (less than 5 mph) and skies to clear through the overnight period.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will likely result in the first hard freeze of the year, however, with the growing season already behind us, no Frost/Freeze products will be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Highs will largely be in the upper 40s and lower 50s each day, with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s each night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This forecast is 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normals for this time of year.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow temperatures to climb back towards, or sightly above, seasonal normals (mid-50s) through the first half of next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Model guidance has been shifting this feature further south with each run, so trends will need to be monitored over the coming forecast cycles to determine the exact placement of any precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

What to watch

Hard freeze

Friday morning (Northern Missouri)

The first hard freeze of the year is likely in northern Missouri Friday morning. No Frost or Freeze warnings will be issued because the growing season is over, but protect sensitive outdoor plants. No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect.

Read the NWS wording
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will likely result in the first hard freeze of the year, however, with the growing season already behind us, no Frost/Freeze products will be issued.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
This will still be a situation to protect any sensitive outdoor plants despite the lack of any headlines.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
MO...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
KS...None.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

Why the forecast might change

  • Computer models have moved the Sunday-Monday system farther south with each run, so where any precipitation falls could still shift. (Along and south of the Missouri River)
Read the NWS wording
Model guidance has been shifting this feature further south with each run, so trends will need to be monitored over the coming forecast cycles to determine the exact placement of any precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

What changed from the discussion before

  • The new discussion calls the hard freeze likely Friday morning only; the earlier one said Friday and Saturday mornings. Friday morning lows are now upper 20s to around 30F across northern Missouri, versus mid 20s before. (Friday morning: northern Missouri (new); much of the state (old))
  • Thursday highs are now upper 40s and lower 50s, versus mid 40s to low 50s before. A chance of Thursday morning sprinkles along and east of I-29/I-49 was added.
  • For Sunday into Monday, the chance is now 20-30% along and south of the Missouri River; before, the best chances were described as south and west of the area. (Along and south of the Missouri River)
Read the NWS wording
The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
This second cold front will also bring another shot of cooler air to the area, which will help to limit high temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11
The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:33 a.m. Wed Nov 11

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The new discussion calls a hard freeze likely only for Friday morning, but still forecasts lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s each night through the weekend; the earlier outlook also said Saturday morning. Whether Saturday morning brings a hard freeze isn't stated.
  • Friday morning's freezing lows are given only for northern Missouri; the discussion doesn't say how cold other parts of the area get that morning.
Read the NWS wording
The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
Highs will largely be in the upper 40s and lower 50s each day, with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s each night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11
- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5 a.m. Wed Nov 11
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:31 p.m. Wed Nov 11

The numbers then

  • Wed66° 43°Sunny8% precip.
  • Thu50° 30°Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny10% precip.
  • Fri47° 28°Sunny0% precip.
  • Sat49° 37°Mostly Sunny3% precip.
  • Sun50° 35°Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Rain20% precip.
  • Mon51° 36°Sunny1% precip.
  • Tue55° 41°Sunny2% precip.

The NWS forecast for Downtown Kansas City as it stood then (updated 12:26 p.m. Wed Nov 11).

Beyond the 7-day forecast

6 to 10 days out · Nov 16–20

Temperature: 70% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 40% chance of above normal

8 to 14 days out · Nov 18–24

Temperature: 50% chance of above normal

Precipitation: 60% chance of above normal

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Downtown Kansas City: the chance the period is warmer or colder, wetter or drier than normal for the time of year. Not a day-by-day forecast.