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Archive: Tuesday, September 8, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

6 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7, current when the day began

Dangerous heat Tuesday for most; strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon into overnight, and Wednesday afternoon mainly south. Cooler from Thursday.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7.

The forecast

  • Tuesday (Whole area; heat index lower in northeastern areas): Hot everywhere, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Dangerous heat covers most of the area by afternoon. Northeastern areas may be less humid, so the heat index there may not be as high.
  • Tuesday late afternoon through overnight (Far northern and northwestern areas first, then spreading south): A strong cold front arrives late Tuesday afternoon and evening and slowly moves south overnight. Storms most likely form between 7 PM and 10 PM CDT in far northern and northwestern areas.
  • Wednesday (Southern areas; heat possibly south of the Missouri River): Heat may continue Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River. New storms are possible Wednesday afternoon, most likely in southern areas.
  • Thursday: The cold front ends the extreme heat. Highs should be closer to normal for this time of year, and it should feel less humid, with dewpoints in the middle 60s for most Thursday afternoon.
  • Weekend through end of forecast: Temperatures warm up a bit for the weekend, but highs should stay in the middle 80s through the end of the forecast.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters call Wednesday's heat and storms uncertain because they depend on where the front and Tuesday night's storms end up. The forecaster puts the chance of extending heat alerts into Wednesday at around 50-60%.

Read the NWS wording
While the entire forecast area will see highs in the mid
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
to upper 90s Tuesday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
spreading back east to encompass most of the forecast area by Tuesday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
our northeastern zones may lag on
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
moisture and thus heat index values don't look as high as areas
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Speaking of fronts, a fairly robust front will be moving into the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening and slowly move south through the overnight hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
But the front will provide a focus for convective development, most likely in the 00Z [7 PM CDT] to 03Z [10 PM CDT] time frame in our far northern/ northwestern zones.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Dangerous heat will continue Tuesday for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
And again on Wednesday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
With the latest suite of guidance, the most probable area for renewed convection looks to be in our southern zones.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
That cold front will finally bring an end to the extreme heat that has plagued the area for nearly two weeks.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
High temperatures by Thursday should be closer to seasonal normals, which now are in the lower 80s to near 80 by the end of the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Dewpoints are also expected to fall into the middle 60s for most Thursday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Temperatures rebound some for the weekend but we should still see highs in the middle 80s through the end of the forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
whether the areas I mentioned are extended, I'd put it around
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
I'd put it around 50-60%. So there is a fair amount of uncertainty as a result of the front and potential for new convection along it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Then for Wednesday afternoon, the forecast is dependent on where that front or any outflow boundaries reside.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7

What to watch

Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory

Tuesday; warning until 8 PM CDT, advisory noon to 8 PM CDT (Warning: Kansas City Metro and immediately surrounding counties; Advisory: surrounding Missouri counties to the north, northeast and east, plus one Kansas zone)

An Extreme Heat Warning (dangerous heat) runs until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for the Kansas City Metro and nearby counties. A Heat Advisory (hazardous heat) covers surrounding Missouri counties north, northeast and east, plus one Kansas zone, noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

Possible dangerous heat continuing Wednesday

Wednesday afternoon (South of the Missouri River (most likely area: along and south of the river))

Dangerous heat may continue into Wednesday south of the Missouri River. Forecasters held off extending heat alerts for now; the forecaster puts the chance of extending them at around 50-60%.

Strong to severe storms

Tuesday afternoon into overnight (Starting in far northern and northwestern areas, then moving south)

Strong to severe storms are possible. The first storms could bring downburst winds and large hail; later, as the front moves south overnight, the main threat should be wind.

Strong to severe storms

Wednesday afternoon (Most likely southern areas)

Strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday afternoon, most likely in southern areas. Winds higher up that help organize storms may be stronger than on Tuesday.

Read the NWS wording
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043-053.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for Kansas City Metro and immediately surrounding counties.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:05 a.m. Mon Sep 7
heat advisory to the east of the ongoing heat warning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ102.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Given the current headline orientation, Excessive Heat Warning for the KC Metro area counties and areas W and S through Tuesday, an additional short- duration headline may be necessary for surrounding areas to the N/NE/E.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:20 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Dangerous heat will continue Tuesday for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
decided to hold off given the uncertainty with the convection and potential effects on temperatures.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
I'd put it around 50-60%. So there is a fair amount of uncertainty as a result of the front and potential for new convection along it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Initial development will pose a risk for downburst winds and large hail.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
But this should trend to mainly a wind hazard with time as front slides southward through the overnight hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
And again on Wednesday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
With the latest suite of guidance, the most probable area for renewed convection looks to be in our southern zones.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Shear may also be stronger than Tuesday as the mid/upper level jet has shifted southward.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7

Why the forecast might change

  • Part of the heat alerts may need extending into Wednesday afternoon; the most likely area is along and south of the Missouri River (forecaster estimate around 50-60%). It depends on Tuesday night to Wednesday morning storms and any new Wednesday afternoon storms. (Most likely along and south of the Missouri River)
  • Where Wednesday afternoon storms form depends on where the front or leftover storm boundaries end up. (Southern areas)
Read the NWS wording
There is potential that a portion of these headlines will need to be extended into Wednesday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Right now, the most likely area that may need to be extend would be along and south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
I'd put it around 50-60%. So there is a fair amount of uncertainty as a result of the front and potential for new convection along it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
dependent on how convection from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning evolves and if any new convection develops Wednesday afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Then for Wednesday afternoon, the forecast is dependent on where that front or any outflow boundaries reside.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7

What changed from the discussion before

  • A Heat Advisory has now been issued for Tuesday for surrounding Missouri counties and one Kansas zone outside the Extreme Heat Warning; the earlier discussion only said one might be needed. (Surrounding Missouri counties north, northeast and east of the Extreme Heat Warning, plus one Kansas zone)
  • Strong to severe storms are now possible Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. The earlier discussion said storm chances return Wednesday. (Far northern and northwestern areas first, then spreading south)
  • The possible Wednesday heat extension is now most likely along and south of the Missouri River, at around 50-60%; earlier it was described as possible for southern areas. (Most likely along and south of the Missouri River)
  • Tuesday's highs are now forecast in the mid to upper 90s; the earlier discussion said mid 90s to 100.
Read the NWS wording
heat advisory to the east of the ongoing heat warning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ102.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Additional short-duration heat headlines may be necessary Tuesday as renewed heat briefly surges back across Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:05 a.m. Mon Sep 7
Given the current headline orientation, Excessive Heat Warning for the KC Metro area counties and areas W and S through Tuesday, an additional short- duration headline may be necessary for surrounding areas to the N/NE/E.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:20 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the area Wednesday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:05 a.m. Mon Sep 7
Right now, the most likely area that may need to be extend would be along and south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
I'd put it around 50-60%. So there is a fair amount of uncertainty as a result of the front and potential for new convection along it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
This too keeps the notion of a possible heat headline in play Wednesday for southern areas where these wide spreads include the potential for upper 90s to 100 and heat index values that would at least approach Advisory criteria.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:20 p.m. Mon Sep 7
While the entire forecast area will see highs in the mid
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
to upper 90s Tuesday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7
Tuesday likely sees highs back to the mid 90s to 100 across the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:20 p.m. Mon Sep 7

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The current discussion does not say whether there are rain or storm chances after Wednesday; the earlier discussion had mentioned chances around Friday/Saturday.
  • Thursday's highs are described only as closer to normal, with normals given as "lower 80s to near 80," an unclear range; no exact Thursday highs are given.
Read the NWS wording
At this point, those chances appear to be in the Friday/Saturday and Monday/Tuesday time frames as deterministic and ensemble guidance depict shortwave troughs sliding through.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:20 p.m. Mon Sep 7
High temperatures by Thursday should be closer to seasonal normals, which now are in the lower 80s to near 80 by the end of the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:03 p.m. Mon Sep 7

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 3:59 a.m. discussion

The NWS discussion issued 3:59 a.m. Tue Sep 8

The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (it left out a hazard the NWS named; a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.

Key messages

- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most
  locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of
  the Missouri River.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening into
  the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri. And
  again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly south of I-70.

- Cooler/ more seasonal temperatures move into the area for the
  later half of the week and through the weekend.

Discussion

Change is afoot ... but the change that most probably want is still
a day away. Instead, today will be highlighted by a brief resurgence
of heat across much of the area. As the remnant Omega Block that
helped yield the prolonged heat continues to break down, the mid-
level low lifting into the Canadian Plains will push the mid-
level/500mb ridge back overhead and with it the 850mb thermal ridge.
Additionally, winds will shift back more southerly, helping lift a
plume of moisture/higher dew points into the area.  All of that will
yield highs jumping back into the mid 90s to around 100 and heat
index values toward 105 or greater in many locations. Given some
displacement between highest temps and highest dew points, this
tends to result in similar forecast heat index values for a majority
of the CWA. The exception may be the far NE, such as Kirksville,
where both peak heat and peak humidity may not quite make it. This
also results in both continued and renewed heat headlines. SW areas,
including the KC Metro counties, remain in an Extreme Heat Warning
given the prolonged duration they have experienced. Areas to the
N/NE/E, to a line from roughly Bethany to Columbia, will have a Heat
Advisory in place. At this time, all heat headlines expire this
evening, but there remains the potential for far southern counties
of the CWA to be extended into Wednesday, all dependent on frontal
progression. Fairly significant uncertainty remains in that regard,
as seen in NBM probabilities of MaxT >= 95 and LREF probabilities of
ApparentT > 100 on Wednesday. In both cases, both struggle to depict
probabilities > 70 percent. Collaboration with SGF/LSX yielded the
decision to hold off on Wednesday at this time, as hinted above. The
noted trend within NBM and LREF probabilities has been a tad slower
frontal progression, reflected in bit higher probabilities vs 24 hrs
ago.

As the aforementioned front drops toward and through the area, so
too associated showers and storms. The strong to severe threat
remains on the lower overall in the traditional, organized, sense
for the area with supportive deep layer shear remaining displaced
well north. There should be modest MUCAPE values ahead of the front
later today, but the question becomes just when first storms may
enter NW/N Missouri. Should the suggested slower frontal progression
trend prevail, storms may not arrive until around/after 06z. This
would tend to limit the severe threat as MUCAPE subsides and
activity becomes elevated. Will note though that dry low-levels will
be in place and evaporatively enhanced down drafts / downbursts
could yet be possible with any of the more robust initial updrafts.
Generally expect more a general shower / isolated thunder threat at
the moment though. No issues with the new SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk
over the far NW/N.

Into Wednesday, frontal progress is the key. Aside from the already
discussed heat, it too would dictate location of any strong/severe
storm threats Wednesday afternoon/evening. The new SPC Day 2 Outlook
has expanded the Marginal Risk northward vs the old Day 3 Outlook,
also suggesting a slower frontal passage trend. Overall, environment
ahead of the front Wednesday will be similar to that on Tuesday,
aside from being further south. At least modest MUCAPE >1500 J/kg is
likely, but looks to continue to lack overall supportive deep layer
shear. The resulting main risk would be strong and damaging winds
given the dry low levels / inverted-V model soundings. There may be
a small window for hail as well, dependent on just how much
instability is able build in ahead of the front and if a bit better
shear environment can develop.

By Thursday, widespread relief behind the frontal passage, finally
putting an end to the incessant heat discussions of late. Much
welcome highs in the low to mid 80s across the entirety of the area.
And 80s largely forecast through the weekend. The next opportunity
for precipitation may move through Saturday as deterministic
synoptic models depict another frontal boundary dropping through the
Northern and Central Plains from a surface low lifting northward
through Minnesota and into Ontario.

Eax watches/warnings/advisories

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>005-011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ102.

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 12:24 p.m. discussion

Dangerous heat today for most locations; a few strong to severe storms possible tonight mainly northern Missouri, Wednesday mainly south of I-70; 80s Thursday.

From the NWS discussion issued 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8.

The forecast

  • Today (Tuesday) (Whole area, except possibly the far northeast such as Kirksville): Hot and humid. Highs in the mid 90s to around 100, with heat index values toward 105 or greater in many locations. The far northeast, such as Kirksville, may not get quite as hot or humid.
  • Tonight (this evening into the overnight hours) (Mainly northern Missouri): Showers and storms possible, mainly across northern Missouri; a few could be strong to severe. If the slower front trend holds, storms may not arrive until around or after 1 AM. Mostly general showers and isolated thunder expected.
  • Wednesday (Areas south of the Missouri River (heat); mainly south of I-70 (storms)): Dangerous heat could continue for areas south of the Missouri River. A few strong to severe storms are possible in the afternoon to evening, mainly south of I-70.
  • Thursday: Relief from the heat arrives behind the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the entire area.
  • Friday through the weekend: Highs largely in the 80s through the weekend. The next chance of rain may come through on Saturday.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say there is fairly significant uncertainty about how fast the cold front moves, which affects whether heat lasts into Wednesday and where storms form. For tonight, they mostly expect general showers and isolated thunder.

Read the NWS wording
highs jumping back into the mid 90s to around 100
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
index values toward 105 or greater in many locations
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The exception may be the far NE, such as Kirksville,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
where both peak heat and peak humidity may not quite make it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Should the suggested slower frontal progression trend prevail, storms may not arrive until around/after 06z [1 AM CDT].
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Generally expect more a general shower / isolated thunder threat at the moment though.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
By Thursday, widespread relief behind the frontal passage, finally putting an end to the incessant heat discussions of late.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Much welcome highs in the low to mid 80s across the entirety of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And 80s largely forecast through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The next opportunity for precipitation may move through Saturday as deterministic synoptic models depict another frontal boundary dropping through the Northern and Central Plains from a surface low lifting northward through Minnesota and into Ontario.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Fairly significant uncertainty remains in that regard,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Into Wednesday, frontal progress is the key.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What to watch

Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory

Today until 8 PM; dangerous heat possibly into Wednesday (Extreme Heat Warning: southwest areas including the KC Metro counties; Heat Advisory: areas north, northeast and east, to a line roughly from Bethany to Columbia; Wednesday: areas south of the Missouri River)

Extreme Heat Warning (most dangerous heat level) for southwest areas including KC Metro counties; Heat Advisory north, northeast and east to roughly Bethany–Columbia. Both end 8 PM. Dangerous heat may continue Wednesday south of the Missouri River.

A few strong to severe storms

This evening into the overnight hours (Mainly northern Missouri; Marginal Risk over the far northwest and north)

A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in northern Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (low-end severe chance) over the far northwest and north. Strong downburst winds could come with the first stronger storms.

A few strong to severe storms

Wednesday afternoon to evening (Mainly south of I-70)

A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly south of I-70. Main risk: strong, damaging winds; a small window for hail may depend on how unstable the air gets and whether winds aloft improve.

Read the NWS wording
including the KC Metro counties, remain in an Extreme Heat Warning
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
N/NE/E, to a line from roughly Bethany to Columbia, will have a Heat
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028- 029-037-043-053.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
No issues with the new SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over the far NW/N.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Will note though that dry low-levels will be in place and evaporatively enhanced down drafts / downbursts could yet be possible with any of the more robust initial updrafts.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The resulting main risk would be strong and damaging winds given the dry low levels / inverted-V model soundings.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
There may be a small window for hail as well, dependent on just how much instability is able build in ahead of the front and if a bit better shear environment can develop.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Why the forecast might change

  • If the cold front moves slower, heat warnings or advisories for far southern counties could be extended into Wednesday. Forecasters decided to hold off on that for now. (Far southern counties)
  • If the slower front trend holds and storms arrive around or after 1 AM, that would tend to limit the severe threat tonight in northwest and northern Missouri. (Northwest and northern Missouri)
  • How fast the front moves will decide where any strong or severe storms form Wednesday afternoon and evening. Hail chances depend on how unstable the air gets ahead of the front and whether winds aloft become more favorable. (Whole area (location of Wednesday storms))
Read the NWS wording
evening, but there remains the potential for far southern counties
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
of the CWA to be extended into Wednesday, all dependent on frontal
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
decision to hold off on Wednesday at this time
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Should the suggested slower frontal progression trend prevail, storms may not arrive until around/after 06z [1 AM CDT].
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This would tend to limit the severe threat as MUCAPE subsides and activity becomes elevated.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Aside from the already discussed heat, it too would dictate location of any strong/severe storm threats Wednesday afternoon/evening.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
There may be a small window for hail as well, dependent on just how much instability is able build in ahead of the front and if a bit better shear environment can develop.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What changed from the discussion before

  • The Heat Advisory, earlier listed as starting at noon today, is now listed as in effect until 8 PM this evening. (Heat Advisory areas: north, northeast and east, to a line roughly from Bethany to Columbia)
Read the NWS wording
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005-011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 6:23 a.m. Tue Sep 8

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The key messages say heat could continue Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River, while the discussion talks about possible extensions only for far southern counties.
Read the NWS wording
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
evening, but there remains the potential for far southern counties
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:06 p.m. discussion

Dangerous heat today for most; a few strong to severe storms possible overnight, mainly northern Missouri, and Wednesday, mainly along/south of I-70. Cooler late week.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8.

The forecast

  • Today (Tuesday) afternoon (Most of the area): Hot again, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 and heat index (feels-like) values above 105 this afternoon.
  • Late tonight through sunrise Wednesday (Northern Missouri): Storms are possible in northern Missouri as a cold front arrives, with the best timing from as early as 3 AM through sunrise. A few could bring strong to damaging winds.
  • Wednesday morning (Whole area, as the front moves south): As the front keeps moving south, showers and weak storms are possible (50-70%), but severe weather is not expected.
  • Wednesday late afternoon into Wednesday night (KC Metro southward): From the KC Metro southward, storms may turn strong to severe again. Damaging winds are the main threat, and marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
  • Wednesday (Central and southern Missouri; Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties): Heat may linger into Wednesday in central and southern Missouri. Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties may reach heat indices of 105, but only for about 1-2 hours.
  • Tonight through Wednesday night: Total rain of 0.5-1 inch is expected, with locally higher amounts possible.
  • Thursday and Friday: A brief dry stretch with cooler highs in the mid to upper 80s.
  • Late Friday night through the weekend (Whole area; highs for most of the area): A wet weekend is shaping up as another front brings widespread rain, currently expected to hold off until late Friday night or early Saturday. Highs in the mid 80s for most of the area.

How sure forecasters were

The discussion says today should be the last day of heat warnings and advisories. Where any flash flooding might happen can't be pinned down yet, and the weekend rain timing is what models show for now.

Read the NWS wording
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees once again today with heat indices climbing above 105 degrees this afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
While most of the instability is elevated on the front, these profiles favor pulsey downburst storms, which may have enough downward momentum to punch through the stable surface layer and bring strong to damaging winds to the surface.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
As the front continues to work south through the morning, showers and weak storms will be possible (50-70%), but severe weather is not anticipated as the low-levels become more saturated and the inverted-V sounding profiles becomes less prominent.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This once again makes strong to damaging winds the primary threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Current expectations are for 0.5-1" of precipitation across the area, with locally higher amounts possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
We will dry out briefly on Thursday and Friday with highs in
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
the mid to upper 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
we are shaping up to have a wet
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This front will bring widespread
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
rain and highs will remain in the mid 80s for most of the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Currently models are holding rain off until late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Friday night/early Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This should be the last day of heat related headlines.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What to watch

Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory

Today until 8 PM (Warning: KC Metro and areas south and west. Advisory: along and southwest of a line from Bethany to Columbia)

An Extreme Heat Warning (dangerous heat) covers the KC Metro and areas south and west until 8 PM. A Heat Advisory (hazardous heat) covers areas along and southwest of a Bethany-to-Columbia line until 8 PM.

Possible dangerous heat Wednesday

Wednesday (Central and southern Missouri; Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties)

Dangerous heat may continue into Wednesday in central and southern Missouri. Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties may reach heat indices of 105, but only for 1-2 hours, so heat alerts were not extended there.

Strong to severe storms overnight

Late this evening into the overnight, best from as early as 3 AM through sunrise (Northern Missouri; Marginal Risk for northwestern Missouri)

A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in northern Missouri. Northwestern Missouri is in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather, mainly for damaging wind.

Strong to severe storms Wednesday

Wednesday late afternoon and early evening into the overnight (Mainly along and south of I-70; KC Metro southward)

A renewed severe risk, mainly along and south of I-70 and from the KC Metro southward. Strong to damaging winds are the main threat; marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.

Localized flash flooding

With the strongest storms tonight through Wednesday night (Whole area; exact area not yet known)

The strongest storms could bring locally heavy rain, so localized flash flooding is possible. Because it has been dry, it would take 1.5-2 inches in 1 hour or 2.5-4 inches in 3 hours.

Read the NWS wording
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the KC Metro and areas south and west through 8 PM this evening.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and southwest of a line from Bethany to Columbia through 8 PM.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which outlines northwestern MO in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather with the main hazard being damaging wind.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
MUCAPE values rebound through the afternoon and evening as the front approaches the southern periphery of the CWA bringing a renewed severe risk.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This once again makes strong to damaging winds the primary threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest storms given the 2-2.5" PWATs that are currently in place across the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Given the dry stretch of weather that the area has been locked in, it will take 1.5-2" of rain in 1 hour and 2.5-4" in 3 hours to create flash flooding concerns.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Why the forecast might change

  • Exactly where any flash flooding happens depends on how individual storms develop.
  • Clouds and rain with Wednesday's front should keep heat below advisory levels. Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties may still reach heat indices of 105, but only for 1-2 hours, so heat alerts were not extended there. (Whole area; far southern counties (Linn (KS), Bates, Henry))
  • Weekend rain timing is based on current models, which hold it off until late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Read the NWS wording
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
As the front moves through tomorrow, cloud cover and precipitation chances should mitigate the potential of reaching advisory criteria.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Currently models are holding rain off until late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Friday night/early Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What changed from the discussion before

  • Localized flash flooding is now mentioned as possible with the strongest storms; the earlier discussion did not mention it.
  • The weekend now looks wet with widespread rain, starting late Friday night or early Saturday. Earlier, rain was only a possible chance on Saturday.
  • Wednesday's possible lingering heat now points to central and southern Missouri (earlier: south of the Missouri River). Wednesday storms are now mainly along and south of I-70 (earlier: south of I-70). (Wednesday heat: central and southern Missouri; Wednesday storms: along and south of I-70)
  • Thursday highs are now in the mid to upper 80s, compared with low to mid 80s earlier.
Read the NWS wording
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
we are shaping up to have a wet
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This front will bring widespread
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Friday night/early Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The next opportunity for precipitation may move through Saturday as deterministic synoptic models depict another frontal boundary dropping through the Northern and Central Plains from a surface low lifting northward through Minnesota and into Ontario.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:05 a.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:05 a.m. Tue Sep 8
We will dry out briefly on Thursday and Friday with highs in
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
the mid to upper 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Much welcome highs in the low to mid 80s across the entirety of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • Timing of tonight's storms in northern Missouri: the summary says late this evening into the overnight, but the detailed text says the best timing is from as early as 3 AM through sunrise.
  • The Heat Advisory area is described differently: this discussion says along and southwest of a Bethany-to-Columbia line, while the earlier one said areas to the north, northeast and east, to that line.
Read the NWS wording
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and southwest of a line from Bethany to Columbia through 8 PM.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas to the N/NE/E, to a line from roughly Bethany to Columbia, will have a Heat
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:24 p.m. Tue Sep 8

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 7:09 p.m. discussion

A few strong to severe storms possible late this evening into overnight, mainly northern Missouri, again Wednesday late afternoon into overnight, largely KC Metro southward.

From the NWS discussion issued 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8.

The forecast

  • This evening (Tuesday) (KC Metro and areas south and west (Extreme Heat Warning); areas along and southwest of a Bethany-to-Columbia line (Heat Advisory)): Heat alerts run until 8 PM: an Extreme Heat Warning for the KC Metro and areas south and west, and a Heat Advisory along and southwest of a line from Bethany to Columbia.
  • Late tonight into early Wednesday (Mainly northern Missouri): A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in northern Missouri. The best timing looks to start as early as 3 AM and last through sunrise. Damaging wind is the main concern.
  • Wednesday morning (Whole area, as the cold front moves south): Showers and weak storms are possible (50-70%) as the cold front moves south, but severe weather is not expected in the morning.
  • Wednesday late afternoon, evening and overnight (Mainly along and south of I-70; from the KC Metro southward): Storms return, with a few possibly strong to severe, largely from the KC Metro southward. Strong to damaging winds are the main threat; marginally severe hail can't be ruled out.
  • Wednesday (Central and southern Missouri; far southern counties (Linn KS, Bates, Henry)): The front brings much needed relief from the heat, but dangerous heat may linger in central and southern Missouri. Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties may briefly reach heat indices of 105 degrees for 1-2 hours.
  • This round of storms (tonight through Wednesday): Rain totals are expected to be 0.5-1" across the area, with locally higher amounts possible.
  • Thursday and Friday: Drying out briefly, with cooler, more seasonal highs in the mid to upper 80s.
  • Late Friday night through the weekend (Whole area; highs in the mid 80s for most of the area): A wet weekend is shaping up as another cold front brings widespread rain, currently expected to hold off until late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Highs in the mid 80s for most of the area.

How sure forecasters were

The discussion doesn't give an overall confidence level. It says where localized flash flooding could happen is hard to pin down because it depends on how individual storms develop, and the weekend rain timing is based on current models.

Read the NWS wording
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the KC Metro and areas south and west through 8 PM this evening.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and southwest of a line from Bethany to Columbia through 8 PM.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which outlines northwestern MO in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather with the main hazard being damaging wind.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
As the front continues to work south through the morning, showers and weak storms will be possible (50-70%), but severe weather is not anticipated as the low-levels become more saturated and the inverted-V sounding profiles becomes less prominent.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This once again makes strong to damaging winds the primary threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
this cold front will continue progressing south across MO tomorrow, which will bring some much needed relief from the heat
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Current expectations are for 0.5-1" of precipitation across the area, with locally higher amounts possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
We will dry out briefly on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures move into the area for the latter half of the week and through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
However, we are shaping up to have a wet weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This front will bring widespread rain and highs will remain in the mid 80s for most of the forecast area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Currently models are holding rain off until late Friday night/early Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Currently models are holding rain off until late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What to watch

Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory

Until 8 PM this evening (KC Metro and areas south and west (warning); along and southwest of a Bethany-to-Columbia line (advisory))

Alerts for dangerous heat, with heat indices above 105 degrees this afternoon. This should be the last day of heat alerts.

Storms with damaging wind overnight

Late this evening into the overnight, best as early as 3 AM through sunrise (Mainly northern Missouri; northwestern Missouri in a Marginal Risk)

A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in northern Missouri. Northwestern Missouri is in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather; damaging wind is the main hazard.

Strong to severe storms Wednesday

Wednesday late afternoon and early evening into the overnight (Largely from the KC Metro southward; mainly along and south of I-70)

A renewed severe risk, mainly along and south of I-70 and largely from the KC Metro southward, mainly strong to damaging winds, with marginally severe hail possible.

Localized flash flooding

With storms tonight through Wednesday night (Whole area; exact spots uncertain)

The strongest storms could bring locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding, though dry ground means it would take 1.5-2" in 1 hour or 2.5-4" in 3 hours.

Lingering heat

Wednesday (Central and southern Missouri; Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties)

Dangerous heat may continue into Wednesday in central and southern Missouri. Heat alerts are not being extended because heat indices near 105 in the far south shouldn't last more than 1-2 hours.

Read the NWS wording
This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees once again today with heat indices climbing above 105 degrees this afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028- 029-037-043-053.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This should be the last day of heat related headlines.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which outlines northwestern MO in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather with the main hazard being damaging wind.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
MUCAPE values rebound through the afternoon and evening as the front approaches the southern periphery of the CWA bringing a renewed severe risk.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This once again makes strong to damaging winds the primary threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest storms given the 2-2.5" PWATs that are currently in place across the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Given the dry stretch of weather that the area has been locked in, it will take 1.5-2" of rain in 1 hour and 2.5-4" in 3 hours to create flash flooding concerns.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Why the forecast might change

  • Where heavy rain and possible flash flooding hit depends on how individual storms develop.
  • As the front moves through Wednesday, clouds and rain chances should generally keep heat below Heat Advisory levels. But Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties may still briefly reach heat indices of 105 degrees for 1-2 hours. (Whole area in general; Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties as the exception)
  • With tonight's storms in northern Missouri (best timing as early as 3 AM through sunrise), dry air near the ground could let storms push strong to damaging winds down to the surface. (Northern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
As the front moves through tomorrow, cloud cover and precipitation chances should mitigate the potential of reaching advisory criteria.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
While most of the instability is elevated on the front, these profiles favor pulsey downburst storms, which may have enough downward momentum to punch through the stable surface layer and bring strong to damaging winds to the surface.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What changed from the discussion before

  • The key messages no longer mention today's dangerous heat; the rest of the forecast, including Wednesday's possible heat in central and southern Missouri and the storm timing, is carried over unchanged.
Read the NWS wording
- Dangerous may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 2:06 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The newest key message is missing a word: it says "Dangerous may continue" without saying what. The earlier discussion said dangerous heat.
  • The earlier Hazardous Weather Outlook placed possible Wednesday heat "south of the Missouri River," while the discussion says central and southern Missouri.
Read the NWS wording
- Dangerous may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous heat will see a brief resurgence today for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:05 a.m. Tue Sep 8

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 9:49 p.m. discussion

A few strong to severe storms possible late evening into overnight, mainly northern Missouri, and Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly along and south of I-70.

From the NWS discussion issued 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8.

The forecast

  • Tonight (late evening through sunrise Wednesday) (Mainly northern Missouri): A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly in northern Missouri. The best timing looks to be from as early as 3 AM through sunrise, before chances drop off.
  • Wednesday morning (Whole area, as the front moves south): As the cold front keeps moving south, showers and weak storms are possible (50-70%). Severe weather is not expected in the morning.
  • Wednesday (Far southern and southeastern parts of the area): Hot temperatures may linger on Wednesday in the far southern and southeastern parts of the area. Elsewhere, the cold front brings much-needed relief from the heat.
  • Wednesday late afternoon into Wednesday night (Mainly along and south of I-70; largely KC Metro southward): Storms may turn strong to severe again, mainly along and south of I-70. The threat is largely from the KC Metro southward late afternoon and early evening, then overnight as the front exits the southern part of the area.
  • Tonight through Wednesday night: Rain totals are expected to be 0.5-1" across the area, with locally higher amounts possible.
  • Thursday and Friday: A brief dry spell, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
  • Late Friday night through the weekend (Whole area; highs for most of the area): A wet weekend is shaping up. Another cold front brings widespread rain, which models currently hold off until late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Highs stay in the mid 80s for most of the area.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say confidence is too low to issue another heat advisory for Wednesday, and they will look again overnight. They can't yet pin down exactly where flash flooding could happen. Weekend rain timing is based on what models currently show.

Read the NWS wording
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
As the front continues to work south through the morning, showers and weak storms will be possible (50-70%), but severe weather is not anticipated as the low-levels become more saturated and the inverted-V sounding profiles becomes less prominent.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
It is possible hot temperatures will linger in far southern and southeastern portions of our forecast area on Wednesday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
this cold front will continue progressing south across MO tomorrow, which will bring some much needed relief from the heat
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Current expectations are for 0.5-1" of precipitation across the area, with locally higher amounts possible.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
We will dry out briefly on Thursday and Friday with highs in
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
the mid to upper 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
However, we are shaping up to have a wet
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures move into the area for the latter half of the week and through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This front will bring widespread
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
rain and highs will remain in the mid 80s for most of the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Currently models are holding rain off until late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Friday night/early Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
However, confidence is too low at this time
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
for issuance of an additional heat advisory
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
look at this potential during the overnight hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What to watch

Strong to damaging winds from storms

Tonight, mainly from as early as 3 AM through sunrise (Northern Missouri; Marginal Risk for northwestern Missouri)

Storms could bring strong to damaging winds down to the ground. Northwestern Missouri is under a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather, with damaging wind the main hazard.

Severe storms: damaging winds, possible hail

Wednesday late afternoon, early evening and overnight (Largely KC Metro southward; overnight in the southern part of the area)

Largely from KC Metro southward, a renewed severe risk late afternoon and early evening, then overnight as the front exits the southern part of the area. Strong to damaging winds are the main threat; marginally severe hail can't be ruled out.

Localized flash flooding

With the strongest storms tonight through Wednesday night (Whole area; exact spots unknown)

The strongest storms could bring locally heavy rain, so localized flash flooding is possible. Because it has been so dry, it would take 1.5-2" of rain in 1 hour or 2.5-4" in 3 hours to cause flash flooding concerns.

Lingering heat

Wednesday (Far southern and southeastern parts of the area (Linn KS, Bates and Henry counties mentioned))

Hot temperatures may linger on Wednesday in far southern and southeastern parts of the area. Heat indices may reach 105 degrees in Linn (KS), Bates and Henry counties, but likely for no more than 1-2 hours. No heat advisory has been issued.

Read the NWS wording
While most of the instability is elevated on the front, these profiles favor pulsey downburst storms, which may have enough downward momentum to punch through the stable surface layer and bring strong to damaging winds to the surface.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which outlines northwestern MO in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather with the main hazard being damaging wind.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
MUCAPE values rebound through the afternoon and evening as the front approaches the southern periphery of the CWA bringing a renewed severe risk.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This once again makes strong to damaging winds the primary threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest storms given the 2-2.5" PWATs that are currently in place across the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Given the dry stretch of weather that the area has been locked in, it will take 1.5-2" of rain in 1 hour and 2.5-4" in 3 hours to create flash flooding concerns.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
linger in far southern and southeastern portions of our forecast
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Why the forecast might change

  • Whether it gets hot enough for a heat advisory on Wednesday depends on the approaching cold front and on showers and storms near it. Forecasters will look again overnight. (Far southern and southeastern parts of the area)
  • Where flash flooding might happen depends on how individual storms develop.
  • The weekend rain start time is based on current model timing and could shift.
Read the NWS wording
given the approach of a cold front from the north during the day and potential for showers and storms in proximity to it.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
look at this potential during the overnight hours.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Currently models are holding rain off until late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Friday night/early Saturday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8

What changed from the discussion before

  • The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory that ran until 8 PM this evening have been allowed to expire. (KC Metro and areas south and west (warning); areas along and southwest of Bethany to Columbia (advisory))
  • For Wednesday in central and southern Missouri, the wording changed from "Dangerous" to "Hot conditions may continue." (Central and southern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
Allowed the extreme heat warning and heat advisory to expire earlier this evening.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028- 029-037-043-053.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Hot conditions may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Dangerous may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 7:09 p.m. Tue Sep 8

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The key messages say storms are possible from late this evening in northern Missouri, while the detailed section puts the best timing at as early as 3 AM through sunrise.
  • The area for Wednesday's heat is described differently: "central and southern Missouri" in the key messages versus "far southern and southeastern portions" in the update.
Read the NWS wording
- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
- Hot conditions may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8
linger in far southern and southeastern portions of our forecast
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 9:49 p.m. Tue Sep 8

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.