- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.

The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.

As the front continues to work south through the morning, showers and weak storms will be possible (50-70%), but severe weather is not anticipated as the low-levels become more saturated and the inverted-V sounding profiles becomes less prominent.

It is possible hot temperatures will linger in far southern and southeastern portions of our forecast area on Wednesday.

this cold front will continue progressing south across MO tomorrow, which will bring some much needed relief from the heat

And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.

This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.

Current expectations are for 0.5-1" of precipitation across the area, with locally higher amounts possible.

We will dry out briefly on Thursday and Friday with highs in

the mid to upper 80s.

However, we are shaping up to have a wet

- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures move into the area for the latter half of the week and through the weekend.

This front will bring widespread

rain and highs will remain in the mid 80s for most of the

Currently models are holding rain off until late

Friday night/early Saturday morning.

However, confidence is too low at this time

for issuance of an additional heat advisory

look at this potential during the overnight hours.

Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.

While most of the instability is elevated on the front, these profiles favor pulsey downburst storms, which may have enough downward momentum to punch through the stable surface layer and bring strong to damaging winds to the surface.

This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which outlines northwestern MO in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather with the main hazard being damaging wind.

MUCAPE values rebound through the afternoon and evening as the front approaches the southern periphery of the CWA bringing a renewed severe risk.

This once again makes strong to damaging winds the primary threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.

This severe threat largely exists from the KC Metro southward during the late afternoon and early evening and into the overnight as the front exits the southern portion of the area.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest storms given the 2-2.5" PWATs that are currently in place across the area.

Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.

Given the dry stretch of weather that the area has been locked in, it will take 1.5-2" of rain in 1 hour and 2.5-4" in 3 hours to create flash flooding concerns.

linger in far southern and southeastern portions of our forecast

Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.

given the approach of a cold front from the north during the day and potential for showers and storms in proximity to it.

look at this potential during the overnight hours.

Thus, localized flash flooding is possible, but pinning down an exact threat area is dependent on how individual storms evolve.

Currently models are holding rain off until late

Friday night/early Saturday morning.

Allowed the extreme heat warning and heat advisory to expire earlier this evening.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028- 029-037-043-053.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.

- Hot conditions may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern Missouri.

- Dangerous may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern MO.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across northern Missouri.

The best timing for storms across northern MO appears to be as early 3 AM and lasts through sunrise before chances begin to diminish.

- Hot conditions may continue into Wednesday for areas in central and southern Missouri.

linger in far southern and southeastern portions of our forecast

First, it may yield a window of highs into the mid-upper 90s (yes, again...) for areas around the KC Metro southward.

Including heat index values pushing around 105 again.

Northern portions of that may only see a couple/few hrs of this heat before the front and/or convection occurs, but southern areas may have a full day of this.

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

- Hot conditions continue one more day for areas roughly near and south of I-70. - A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70 - Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

By Wednesday night/overnight this activity shifts further south and out of the immediate area.

Initial storms would tend to carry the greatest risk before increasing areal coverage and training storms moisten the low levels. The SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains fairly well placed, maybe a tinge south given recent trends, and is driven solely by wind. By Wednesday night/overnight this activity shifts further south and out of the immediate area. And with that... the prolonged heat officially over for the entirety of the CWA.

And with that... the prolonged heat officially over for the entirety of the CWA.

- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures fully overspread the area by Thursday and continues through the weekend and into next week.

Highs fall back closer to seasonal norms with forecast highs in the 80s tending to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

The next opportunity for precipitation moves through this weekend Friday night and again Saturday night as a couple of mid-level shortwaves move through the more zonal flow.

Current deterministic depictions suggest the potential for a couple rounds of thunderstorm activity.

Right now, highest confidence is just west into Kansas, but would drift into the area from NW to SE and then W/SW to E/NE respectively.

Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors.

Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

The slower progression potentially pulls the strong/severe storm threat back northward a bit.

Right now, highest confidence is just west into Kansas, but would drift into the area from NW to SE and then W/SW to E/NE respectively. Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors. That would be on top of anything received Friday night. Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70

Right now, it will NOT include the KC Metro considering it may be quite short duration.

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

- Hot conditions continue one more day for areas roughly near and south of I-70. - A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70 - Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

Small hail would remain in play, but organized storms appear difficult to come by with better shear profiles north, but the thermodynamic profiles remain fairly poor.

The SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains fairly well placed, maybe a tinge south given recent trends, and is driven solely by wind.

The overnight environment really is more conducive to a flooding

Fortunately, a more scattered nature limits truly short-

duration rainfall and most areas should be able to handle 2.5 to 5

inches of rainfall or more over 3 to 6 hr durations, via RFC FFG.

Areas that saw storms the other day, mainly western Missouri into

far eastern Kansas, may be on the lower end of that range.

trend to the frontal passage also increases flood potential a tinge.

Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors.

Right now, highest confidence is just west into Kansas, but would drift into the area from NW to SE and then W/SW to E/NE respectively. Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors. That would be on top of anything received Friday night. Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

As just mentioned, recent CAM guidance has continued to slow the overall frontal progression, now potentially not to the east-west portions of the Missouri River until 18z [1 PM CDT].

First, it may yield a window of highs into the mid-upper 90s (yes, again...) for areas around the KC Metro southward.

The slower progression potentially pulls the strong/severe storm threat back northward a bit.

Initial storms would tend to carry the greatest risk before increasing areal coverage and training storms moisten the low levels.

Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors.

Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

Thus, there will be a very small Heat Advisory for today.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70

As the front moves through tomorrow, cloud cover and precipitation chances should mitigate the potential of reaching advisory criteria.

Areas across the far southern portion of the CWA (Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties) may reach heat indices of 105 degrees, but these conditions shouldn't last for more than 1-2 hours, so have opted to hold off on extending the heat products for these areas.

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

- Hot conditions continue one more day for areas roughly near and south of I-70. - A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70 - Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

And again Wednesday afternoon to evening, mainly along and south of I-70.

The next opportunity for precipitation moves through this weekend Friday night and again Saturday night as a couple of mid-level shortwaves move through the more zonal flow.

Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors.

Currently models are holding rain off until late

Friday night/early Saturday morning.

Thus, there will be a very small Heat Advisory for today.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... [carried over unchanged] MO...None. KS...None.

The slower progression potentially pulls the strong/severe storm threat back northward a bit.

The SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains fairly well placed, maybe a tinge south given recent trends, and is driven solely by wind.

The overnight environment really is more conducive to a flooding

trend to the frontal passage also increases flood potential a tinge.

- Hot conditions continue one more day for areas roughly near and south of I-70.

First, it may yield a window of highs into the mid-upper 90s (yes, again...) for areas around the KC Metro southward.

Northern portions of that may only see a couple/few hrs of this heat before the front and/or convection occurs, but southern areas may have a full day of this.

Including heat index values pushing around 105 again.

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

By Wednesday night/overnight this activity shifts further south and out of the immediate area.

And with that... the prolonged heat officially over for the entirety of the CWA.

- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures fully overspread the area by Thursday and continues through the weekend and into next week.

Highs fall back closer to seasonal norms with forecast highs in the 80s tending to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

The next opportunity for precipitation moves through this weekend Friday night and again Saturday night as a couple of mid-level shortwaves move through the more zonal flow.

Current deterministic depictions suggest the potential for a couple rounds of thunderstorm activity.

Right now, highest confidence is just west into Kansas, but would drift into the area from NW to SE and then W/SW to E/NE respectively.

As just mentioned, recent CAM guidance has continued to slow the overall frontal progression, now potentially not to the east-west portions of the Missouri River until 18z [1 PM CDT].

Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ045-053-054.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.

Right now, it will NOT include the KC Metro considering it may be quite short duration.

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

Small hail would remain in play, but organized storms appear difficult to come by with better shear profiles north, but the thermodynamic profiles remain fairly poor.

The SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains fairly well placed, maybe a tinge south given recent trends, and is driven solely by wind.

The overnight environment really is more conducive to a flooding threat given the parallel shear/steering flow and moisture transport.

most areas should be able to handle 2.5 to 5 inches of rainfall or more over 3 to 6 hr durations, via RFC FFG.

Areas that saw storms the other day, mainly western Missouri into far eastern Kansas, may be on the lower end of that range.

A slowing trend to the frontal passage also increases flood potential a tinge.

Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors.

That would be on top of anything received Friday night.

Plenty of time to evolve, but would be the next window to watch.

As just mentioned, recent CAM guidance has continued to slow the overall frontal progression, now potentially not to the east-west portions of the Missouri River until 18z [1 PM CDT].

First, it may yield a window of highs into the mid-upper 90s (yes, again...) for areas around the KC Metro southward.

The slower progression potentially pulls the strong/severe storm threat back northward a bit.

Initial storms would tend to carry the greatest risk before increasing areal coverage and training storms moisten the low levels.

The overnight environment really is more conducive to a flooding threat given the parallel shear/steering flow and moisture transport.

A slowing trend to the frontal passage also increases flood potential a tinge.

Areas that saw storms the other day, mainly western Missouri into far eastern Kansas, may be on the lower end of that range.

Of casual note, depending on the evolution the next couple of cycles, this could also include the potential for flooding potential by Saturday night/overnight as current depictions show a developing surface low and the warm frontal position possibly across northern Kansas and into Missouri somewhere between Highway 36 and I-70 corridors.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ045-053-054.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.