- Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning, mainly for areas near and south of Interstate 70.

Locally heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main threats.

Conditions are expected to dry out by the afternoon.

These storms should gradually shift east out of the region by this afternoon, with skies clearing from northwest to southeast to close out the day.

Given recent rainfall, fog should readily develop Thursday night.

HREF probabilities of visibilities less than a half mile are 40-70 percent in much of the area after 2 am Friday.

Have added mention of fog across the region to tonight's forecast, with at least some potential (up to 30 percent) for dense (< 0.25-mile visibilities) fog by daybreak Friday.

The good news is that temperatures will be much more comfortable during this time frame, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s across the region through Friday night.

Friday should be a sensational day overall, but storm chances may increase as the next system approaches the central Plains late Friday night.

Uncertainty is rather high regarding this potential, however, given the rather nebulous forcing present in our region relative to areas farther north and west.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

Showers/storms may linger into Sunday across portions of the area.

Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system.

However, downstream ridging will be intensifying during this period, so the lift attendant to this perturbation may be shunted farther to the north (relative to Saturday night). Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system. For now, have kept PoPs during this period mostly north of U.S. Highway 36, though confidence is lower than average.

Meanwhile, farther to the south, temperatures will be noticeably warmer by Sunday (mid 80s to lower 90s).

Nevertheless, the pattern looks increasingly unsettled next week, with temperatures eventually cooling as the stronger midlevel flow and associated surface systems/fronts approach the region with time.

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

This may include some or most of our forecast area, though confidence is on the low side given the considerable variability apparent in ensemble output by this portion of the forecast.

The severe-weather potential is quite low.

Given the uncertainties with afternoon convection, it is still unclear how storms will evolve in our immediate forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Though antecedent conditions have been quite dry across the area, multiple rounds of storms appear likely to occur in a narrow corridor in our far southern CWA early this morning.

A precipitation accumulation axis of 3-6 inches of total rainfall seems likely from portions of Linn County KS to Bates County MO and potentially into Henry County MO as well.

Localized flooding may occur in this corridor early this morning, though rainfall may accumulate over a long-enough period to mitigate a more substantial threat.

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning, mainly for areas near and south of Interstate 70.

Locally heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main threats.

Given recent rainfall, fog should readily develop Thursday night.

Have added mention of fog across the region to tonight's forecast, with at least some potential (up to 30 percent) for dense (< 0.25-mile visibilities) fog by daybreak Friday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

The SPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for Saturday evening/night, which seems reasonable at this stage.

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Localized flooding may occur in this corridor early this morning, though rainfall may accumulate over a long-enough period to mitigate a more substantial threat.

A precipitation accumulation axis of 3-6 inches of total rainfall seems likely from portions of Linn County KS to Bates County MO and potentially into Henry County MO as well.

Model output (including that from CAMs) is quite variable Friday night, so some modifications to the forecast seem quite likely leading up to Friday night.

Given the uncertainties with afternoon convection, it is still unclear how storms will evolve in our immediate forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.

The damaging wind potential may increase if storms Saturday evening can organize/congeal into a mesoscale convective system and develop a progressive cold pool.

However, downstream ridging will be intensifying during this period, so the lift attendant to this perturbation may be shunted farther to the north (relative to Saturday night). Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system. For now, have kept PoPs during this period mostly north of U.S. Highway 36, though confidence is lower than average.

However, downstream ridging will be intensifying during this period, so the lift attendant to this perturbation may be shunted farther to the north (relative to Saturday night).

At this time, this potential looks highest just to our north (Nebraska and Iowa); however, with time, this potential will sag southward as convective outflow eventually impinges on the ridging.

This may include some or most of our forecast area, though confidence is on the low side given the considerable variability apparent in ensemble output by this portion of the forecast.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

keeping an eye on the rain Saturday and the potential for flooding.

WPC has issued a slight ERO for the western 2/3 of our CWA on

Have added mention of fog across the region to tonight's forecast, with at least some potential (up to 30 percent) for dense (< 0.25-mile visibilities) fog by daybreak Friday.

The good news is that temperatures will be much more comfortable during this time frame, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s across the region through Friday night.

Friday, the surface ridge will slide east of the area with

the mid to upper 80s.

- Cooler temperatures are expected for the next week, with several chances for storms this weekend into much of next week.

Meanwhile, farther to the south, temperatures will be noticeably warmer by Sunday (mid 80s to lower 90s).

The large-scale pattern remains similar on Monday (likely leading to slightly warmer temperatures overall), but additional shortwave troughs will eject northeastward into the northern/central Plains during this period.

provided much more comfortable temperatures with highs in the

upper 70s to lower 80s.

tonight providing light winds and mostly clear skies.

with a moist boundary layer will allow fog to develop over most of

The best potential for dense fog will be across central

Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into

upper 50s to mid 60s.

Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into tomorrow morning.

allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s.

forecast to move into the area while will provide a few chances for

through the area during the afternoon and evening hours in a

which will be capable of producing strong storms capable of large

hail and damaging winds.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.

into the area on zonal flow aloft through Sunday continuing shower and thunderstorm chances.

several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be

Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS.

This will allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday.

Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft.

Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near 90 south.

Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the mid 80s south.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

with a moist boundary layer will allow fog to develop over most of

The best potential for dense fog will be across central

Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into tomorrow morning.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.

several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft.

The temperature spread on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to be wide with the cold front draped across the forecast area.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.

Conditions are expected to dry out by the afternoon. - Cooler temperatures are expected for the next week, with several chances for storms this weekend into much of next week. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS.

Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system.

However, downstream ridging will be intensifying during this period, so the lift attendant to this perturbation may be shunted farther to the north (relative to Saturday night). Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system. For now, have kept PoPs during this period mostly north of U.S. Highway 36, though confidence is lower than average.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.

Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system. For now, have kept PoPs during this period mostly north of U.S. Highway 36, though confidence is lower than average. Meanwhile, farther to the south, temperatures will be noticeably warmer by Sunday (mid 80s to lower 90s).

Meanwhile, farther to the south, temperatures will be noticeably warmer by Sunday (mid 80s to lower 90s).

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

tonight providing light winds and mostly clear skies

will allow fog to develop over most of

The best potential for dense fog will be across central

Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into

tomorrow morning. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the

upper 50s to mid 60s.

allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s.

forecast to move into the area while will provide a few chances for

through the area during the afternoon and evening hours

which will be capable of producing strong storms capable of large

hail and damaging winds.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.

Additional shortwave will continue to move into the area on zonal flow aloft through Sunday continuing shower and thunderstorm chances.

Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS.

This will allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday.

Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft.

Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near 90 south.

Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft. The temperature spread on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to be wide with the cold front draped across the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near 90 south. Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the mid 80s south.|

Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the mid 80s south.|

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding. - There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

The best potential for dense fog will be across central

Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into tomorrow morning.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.

several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding. - There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding. - There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft.

The temperature spread on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to be wide with the cold front draped across the forecast area.

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

- Cooler temperatures are expected for the next week, with several chances for storms this weekend into much of next week.

This will allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday.

providing light winds and mostly clear skies

will allow fog to develop over most of the CWA

The best potential for dense fog will be across central Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into tomorrow morning

Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s

This will allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s.

will provide a few chances for storms

during the afternoon and evening hours

capable of producing strong storms capable of large hail and damaging winds

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.

through Sunday continuing shower and thunderstorm chances

Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS.

This will allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday.

Secondly, it will force an attendant slow moving cold front into the area.

Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft.

Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near 90 south.

Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the mid 80s south.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MOZ015>017- 022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

The best potential for dense fog will be across central Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.

several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be possible

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MOZ015>017- 022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MOZ015>017- 022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.