Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
4 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say confidence is low on where next week's heavy rain will set up. The stalled front next week is what current models suggest. The discussion doesn't say how sure it is about other days.
providing light winds and mostly clear skiesNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
will allow fog to develop over most of the CWANWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
The best potential for dense fog will be across central Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into tomorrow morningNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 50s to mid 60sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
This will allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
will provide a few chances for stormsNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
during the afternoon and evening hoursNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
capable of producing strong storms capable of large hail and damaging windsNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
through Sunday continuing shower and thunderstorm chancesNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
This will allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Secondly, it will force an attendant slow moving cold front into the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near 90 south.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the mid 80s south.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
A Dense Fog Advisory means fog may make it hard to see while driving. It runs until 10 AM Friday for parts of Missouri.
A marginal (low-end) risk of severe storms. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.
Heavy rain is possible, and with several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be possible.
Some signs point to a pattern next week that favors heavy rain and localized flooding, but forecasters have low confidence in where it would fall.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MOZ015>017- 022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
The best potential for dense fog will be across central Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridorNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be possibleNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MOZ015>017- 022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Thu Sep 10
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MOZ015>017- 022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 11:07 p.m. Thu Sep 10
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:16 a.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Areas of dense fog this morning will dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. Dens fog is most likely from parts of west central MO into central and northeastern MO. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong winds and hail are the primary threats with this activity. - There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to potential for heavy rainfall. There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.
A surface high, centered over the Great Lakes, combined with residual moisture from yesterday's rain, is leading to widespread dense fog east of the KC area into central/northeastern MO, as of 07Z. This may eventually spread westward into parts of west central MO and east central KS by sunrise, given the weak pressure gradient and calm winds. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas east of Kansas City. Will monitor trends through the early morning hours. If fog does build westward, a westward expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Fog will dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. Focus then shifts to the potential for strong to severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight. Models show a shortwave trough moving across Central Plains into the Midwest. This helps push a front southward into the area which may lead to the development of storms during the afternoon hours. This is uncertain as while there is forecast to be ample CAPE, forecast soundings show capping in place as the front passes through. If storms are unable to develop during the day, the focus will shift to the evening/overnight hours, where forcing associated with the nose of the low-level jet will be key. Even with this, there is considerable uncertainty as the placement of the nose of the low- level jet and it varies by several hundred miles in the available guidance. In the deterministic guidance, the NAM moves the low- level jet over the forecast area. The GFS and the ECMWF are much further west, in central to western KS. This is beyond the time from the HREF and the LREF splits the difference with the low- level jet across central KS. With how far east the NAM forecasts the low-level jet, it is naturally the most robust solution for the forecast area, tracking storms through the forecast area through the overnight hours. Conversely, the GFS and the ECMWF are further west, with the later showing little in the way of QPF. For next week, the pattern becomes favorable for near daily/nightly precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest. Our forecast area is on the northern periphery of the upper ridging centered over the Southeastern US. This effectively limits the southeastward extent of precipitation chances. Stronger ridging shifts the best chances northwestward. Weaker ridging allows for more of the forecast area to see higher precipitation chances. The ridging to the southeast will also help transport anomalously high moisture northward into the region. And with the area being persistently in the right rear quadrant of the upper- level jet, there is a good signal for heavy rainfall in the region, despite the uncertainty in its placement. As it currently stands, the northern portions of the forecast have best chance of seeing multiple rounds of storms with potential for cumulatively heavy rainfall next week. Our current forecast shows two to perhaps five inches of rain in far northern Missouri next week. For the 48 hour period ending at 7 am Thursday there is a 40-50% chance for at least 3 inches of rain.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ015>017-
022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.
KS...None.Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 12:42 p.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Areas of dense fog this morning will dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. Dens fog is most likely from parts of west central MO into central and northeastern MO. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong winds and hail are the primary threats with this activity. - There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to potential for heavy rainfall. There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.
A surface high, centered over the Great Lakes, combined with residual moisture from yesterday's rain, is leading to widespread dense fog east of the KC area into central/northeastern MO, as of 07Z. This may eventually spread westward into parts of west central MO and east central KS by sunrise, given the weak pressure gradient and calm winds. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas east of Kansas City. Will monitor trends through the early morning hours. If fog does build westward, a westward expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Fog will dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. Focus then shifts to the potential for strong to severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight. Models show a shortwave trough moving across Central Plains into the Midwest. This helps push a front southward into the area which may lead to the development of storms during the afternoon hours. This is uncertain as while there is forecast to be ample CAPE, forecast soundings show capping in place as the front passes through. If storms are unable to develop during the day, the focus will shift to the evening/overnight hours, where forcing associated with the nose of the low-level jet will be key. Even with this, there is considerable uncertainty as the placement of the nose of the low- level jet and it varies by several hundred miles in the available guidance. In the deterministic guidance, the NAM moves the low- level jet over the forecast area. The GFS and the ECMWF are much further west, in central to western KS. This is beyond the time from the HREF and the LREF splits the difference with the low- level jet across central KS. With how far east the NAM forecasts the low-level jet, it is naturally the most robust solution for the forecast area, tracking storms through the forecast area through the overnight hours. Conversely, the GFS and the ECMWF are further west, with the later showing little in the way of QPF. For next week, the pattern becomes favorable for near daily/nightly precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest. Our forecast area is on the northern periphery of the upper ridging centered over the Southeastern US. This effectively limits the southeastward extent of precipitation chances. Stronger ridging shifts the best chances northwestward. Weaker ridging allows for more of the forecast area to see higher precipitation chances. The ridging to the southeast will also help transport anomalously high moisture northward into the region. And with the area being persistently in the right rear quadrant of the upper- level jet, there is a good signal for heavy rainfall in the region, despite the uncertainty in its placement. As it currently stands, the northern portions of the forecast have best chance of seeing multiple rounds of storms with potential for cumulatively heavy rainfall next week. Our current forecast shows two to perhaps five inches of rain in far northern Missouri next week. For the 48 hour period ending at 7 am Thursday there is a 40-50% chance for at least 3 inches of rain.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 3:14 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters expect Saturday's late afternoon and evening storms. For next week, they say there is considerable uncertainty in where the heavy rain sets up.
This will force a trailing cold frontNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
A few showers and storms may be possible along and ahead of this front across the western CWA tomorrow morning (20-30%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
expected to kick off another round of showersNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
with a stalled frontal boundaryNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
potential for storms to be strong to severeNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Highs Saturday will be in the 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
continue the chance for stronger stormsNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
the potential for heavy rainNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
localized flooding cannot be ruled outNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Storm chances will continueNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likelyNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
the mid 70s over northern MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
reaching the upper 80s across the southern CWANWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Sunday night into Monday, upper level ridging will build over the Mississippi River Valley.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
This will aid in drying conditions out and allow highs to rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Several shortwaves rounding the ridge into the local area in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe looks to set up a very wet and unsettled middle part of the next work week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms, the lowest level of severe risk, meaning isolated severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.
Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding Saturday night. On Sunday the flooding potential continues, particularly in the northern part of the area.
An active pattern may bring multiple chances for showers and storms, with potential for heavy rainfall.
- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with this activity.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Heavy rain will also be possible which could lead to localized floodingNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
This will continue the potential for floodingNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likelyNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
- There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to potential for heavy rainfall.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
cloud cover and storms keeping highs inNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
the mid 70s over northern MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
reaching the upper 80s across the southern CWANWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Heavy rain will also be possible which could lead to localized floodingNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with this activity.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Strong winds and hail are the primary threats with this activity.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Fri Sep 11
expected to kick off another round of showersNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:14 p.m. Fri Sep 11
This is uncertain as while there is forecast to be ample CAPE, forecast soundings show capping in place as the front passes through.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:42 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Our current forecast shows two to perhaps five inches of rain in far northern Missouri next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:42 p.m. Fri Sep 11
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.