This will force a trailing cold front

A few showers and storms may be possible along and ahead of this front across the western CWA tomorrow morning (20-30%).

expected to kick off another round of showers

with a stalled frontal boundary

potential for storms to be strong to severe

Highs Saturday will be in the 80s.

continue the chance for stronger storms

the potential for heavy rain

localized flooding cannot be ruled out

Storm chances will continue

particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likely

the mid 70s over northern Missouri

reaching the upper 80s across the southern CWA

Sunday night into Monday, upper level ridging will build over the Mississippi River Valley.

This will aid in drying conditions out and allow highs to rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Several shortwaves rounding the ridge into the local area in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe looks to set up a very wet and unsettled middle part of the next work week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours.

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with this activity.

Heavy rain will also be possible which could lead to localized flooding

This will continue the potential for flooding

particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likely

- There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to potential for heavy rainfall.

There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.

cloud cover and storms keeping highs in

the mid 70s over northern Missouri

reaching the upper 80s across the southern CWA

Heavy rain will also be possible which could lead to localized flooding

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with this activity.

Strong winds and hail are the primary threats with this activity.

expected to kick off another round of showers

This is uncertain as while there is forecast to be ample CAPE, forecast soundings show capping in place as the front passes through.

Our current forecast shows two to perhaps five inches of rain in far northern Missouri next week.

slight chance to low chance PoPs (15- 30%) for our western to southwestern zones this morning

anticipate this area to diminish/ dissipate with time

Then just slight chances (15-20%) for the

afternoon and evening hours before increasing chances during the

it's possible that additional

it's possible little or no activity is able to develop

late evening and overnight hours

depicts an area of 30-40% chances across eastern Kansas and western Missouri

Additionally, it looks like a quasi-stationary boundary sets up across northern Missouri/ southern Iowa, unable to move further south due to the strong ridging.

This setup leads to multiple rounds of storms across northern Missouri.

Northern Missouri is likely to be on the northern edges of this upper ridging. Additionally, it looks like a quasi-stationary boundary sets up across northern Missouri/ southern Iowa, unable to move further south due to the strong ridging. This setup leads to multiple rounds of storms across northern Missouri. Cumulatively, from Sunday through the end of next week, widespread 2-5" rainfall looks possible from the repeated rounds of showers and storms.

Cumulatively, from Sunday through the end of next week, widespread 2-5" rainfall looks possible from the repeated rounds of showers and storms.

This setup leads to multiple rounds of storms across northern Missouri. Cumulatively, from Sunday through the end of next week, widespread 2-5" rainfall looks possible from the repeated rounds of showers and storms. South of this, temperatures will have the potential to be well above normal, with highs in the low to mid 90s possible. With our normal temperatures now near 80 degrees, highs will potentially be 10-15 degrees above normal from roughly the Missouri River southward.

With our normal temperatures now near 80 degrees, highs will potentially be 10-15 degrees above normal from roughly the Missouri River southward.

This is a very complex and uncertain forecast with how today's

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

- Numerous rounds of showers and storms, particularly for northern Missouri, appear possible next week, with widespread cumulative heavy rain possible.

- South of the heavier rain areas, well above normal temperatures look likely again with highs in the low to mid 90s generally south of the Missouri River.

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

this is conditional on if we actually see storms,

especially during the afternoon/evening when instability is the

would support some organized storms with a damaging

wind and large hail risk.

- Numerous rounds of showers and storms, particularly for northern Missouri, appear possible next week, with widespread cumulative heavy rain possible.

Cumulatively, from Sunday through the end of next week, widespread 2-5" rainfall looks possible from the repeated rounds of showers and storms.

looking through forecast soundings for eastern Kansas and western Missouri, there is considerable convective inhibition to overcome.

it's possible little or no activity is able to develop

ample elevated instability that may provide enough for storms

These may be lower, if cloud cover can intrude further south and inhibit insolation.

Additionally, stronger ridging could shift the heavier rain further north leading to warmer temperatures than currently forecast.

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

this is conditional on if we actually see storms,

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours.

- Numerous rounds of showers and storms, particularly for northern Missouri, appear possible next week, with widespread cumulative heavy rain possible.

Cumulatively, from Sunday through the end of next week, widespread 2-5" rainfall looks possible from the repeated rounds of showers and storms.

There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.

localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours.

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

especially during the afternoon/evening when instability is the

Then just slight chances (15-20%) for the

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large and damaging winds the main threats.

area and may be the focus for additional storm development this afternoon/evening

to isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail up to

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph

intensity (after a brief diurnal weakening trend) around midnight as a nocturnal 35-40kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the area

Storms will persist through the overnight into Sunday morning

At this time Sunday afternoon looks mostly dry

although a few scattered showers (20-30%) may linger across the eastern CWA.

Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower

70s north to mid 80s south

By tomorrow night, the surface front that moved through the area today will reside south of the CWA.

producing additional showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches.

Showers may linger into Monday morning as the frontal boundary lifts north across the area as a warm front.

This will set up the area for a very

into the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values over the

southern CWA rising to 100-105.

This will force a weak trailing cold front into the area on Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

While the stagnant upper level pattern does break down late next week it does come courtesy of an upper level trough moving from the central Plains and through the local area which would keep the pattern unsettled.

Morning showers and thunderstorms have made for a tricky

model guidance does differ on

timing and intensity of this shortwave feature

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large and damaging winds the main threats.

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph

In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

These storms will be very efficient with PWAT values around 2 inches so, if even brief training occurs localized flooding would be a concern.

Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches.

may lead to additional flooding concerns.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

Outflow from this morning's storms which has become the effective boundary has pushed south of the area. This will be where the best chance for more organized severe storms will be

the actual surface front is currently bisecting the

area and may be the focus for additional storm development this

coverage is expected to increase in coverage and perhaps

intensity (after a brief diurnal weakening trend) around midnight as a nocturnal 35-40kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the area

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large and damaging winds the main threats.

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph

In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

- South of the heavier rain areas, well above normal temperatures look likely again with highs in the low to mid 90s generally south of the Missouri River.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large and damaging winds the main threats.

capable of producing large hail up to

into the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values over the

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

coverage is expected to increase in coverage and perhaps

intensity (after a brief diurnal weakening trend) around

midnight as a nocturnal 35-40kt southwesterly LLJ noses into

Storms will persist through the

overnight into Sunday morning until the LLJ weakens and veers

At this time Sunday afternoon looks mostly dry

although a few scattered showers (20-30%) may linger across the eastern CWA.

Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower

70s north to mid 80s south

producing additional showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may

again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches.

Showers may linger into Monday morning as the frontal boundary lifts north across

warm day on Monday as strong WAA ushers in temperatures rising

into the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values over the

southern CWA rising to 100-105.

This will force a weak trailing cold front into the area on Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

While the stagnant upper level pattern does break down late next week it does come courtesy of an upper level trough moving from the central Plains and through the local area which would keep the pattern unsettled.

Morning showers and thunderstorms have made for a tricky

However, model guidance does differ on

timing and intensity of this shortwave feature.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

This will be sufficient for strong

to isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail up to

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph.

These storms will be very efficient with PWAT values

if even brief training occurs localized

flooding would be a concern.

In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may

again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches.

may lead to additional flooding concerns.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

the actual surface front is currently bisecting the

area and may be the focus for additional storm development this

However, model guidance does differ on

timing and intensity of this shortwave feature.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph.

In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

- South of the heavier rain areas, well above normal temperatures look likely again with highs in the low to mid 90s generally south of the Missouri River.

effective boundary has pushed south of the area.

where the best chance for more organized severe storms will be

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.