- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

coverage is expected to increase in coverage and perhaps

intensity (after a brief diurnal weakening trend) around

midnight as a nocturnal 35-40kt southwesterly LLJ noses into

Storms will persist through the

overnight into Sunday morning until the LLJ weakens and veers

At this time Sunday afternoon looks mostly dry

although a few scattered showers (20-30%) may linger across the eastern CWA.

Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower

70s north to mid 80s south

producing additional showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may

again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches.

Showers may linger into Monday morning as the frontal boundary lifts north across

warm day on Monday as strong WAA ushers in temperatures rising

into the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values over the

southern CWA rising to 100-105.

This will force a weak trailing cold front into the area on Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

While the stagnant upper level pattern does break down late next week it does come courtesy of an upper level trough moving from the central Plains and through the local area which would keep the pattern unsettled.

Morning showers and thunderstorms have made for a tricky

However, model guidance does differ on

timing and intensity of this shortwave feature.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

This will be sufficient for strong

to isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail up to

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph.

These storms will be very efficient with PWAT values

if even brief training occurs localized

flooding would be a concern.

In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may

again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches.

may lead to additional flooding concerns.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

the actual surface front is currently bisecting the

area and may be the focus for additional storm development this

However, model guidance does differ on

timing and intensity of this shortwave feature.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph.

In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

- Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

- South of the heavier rain areas, well above normal temperatures look likely again with highs in the low to mid 90s generally south of the Missouri River.

effective boundary has pushed south of the area.

where the best chance for more organized severe storms will be

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

renewed convective development from north central Kansas into

we should see showers and storms

drift east as well, moving into northwestern Missouri as result.

With the waning of the low-level jet during the day, precipitation should decrease with time.

We should see new convective development anywhere

from eastern Kansas to western Missouri, most likely in the 06Z [1 AM CDT] to

09Z [4 AM CDT] time frame

then ramp them up again tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Well above normal temperatures are likely Monday and Tuesday along and south of the I-70 corridor.

Heat index values may climb into the 100 to 105 range.

With regards to the potential for heat, the southern portions of the forecast may see highs in the low to mid 90s Monday and Tuesday, with dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 70s.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected this week, especially Monday night through Wednesday across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.

Additional rounds of showers and storms are likely through at least the middle part of the week.

Cumulatively, the forecast continues to show widespread 3-5" rain amounts for northern Missouri, mainly north of the Missouri River.

The setup for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks particularly interesting with regards to heavy rainfall.

A frontal boundary is likely to stall in the area with deep flow generally parallel to that boundary.

With deep flow parallel to the boundary, training storms are likely, and with the anomalously moist airmass in place, heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding is becoming more likely.

A large slight risk for excessive rainfall has been placed over much of the forecast area.

The threat for flooding is increasing, especially north of the Missouri River.

It's another complex and challenging forecast tonight

But given the potential for storms and cloud cover, confidence is still somewhat low at this point.

It's possible, as confidence in placement and magnitude increase, this will be upgraded.

The threat for flooding is increasing, especially north of the Missouri River.

With deep flow parallel to the boundary, training storms are likely, and with the anomalously moist airmass in place, heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding is becoming more likely.

A large slight risk for excessive rainfall has been placed over much of the forecast area.

We may need a flood watch at some point in the next day or so to account for the increasing risk of flooding rainfall.

It's possible a heat advisory will be needed for a portion of the forecast area Monday and Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures are likely Monday and Tuesday along and south of the I-70 corridor.

Heat index values may climb into the 100 to 105 range.

the overall threat of severe weather looks low today and tonight,

can't rule out a strong storm capable of some strong winds and

hail, especially tonight into tomorrow morning.

renewed convective development from north central Kansas into

drift east as well, moving into northwestern Missouri as result.

from eastern Kansas to western Missouri, most likely in the 06Z [1 AM CDT] to

A large slight risk for excessive rainfall has been placed over much of the forecast area.

It's possible, as confidence in placement and magnitude increase, this will be upgraded.

But given the potential for storms and cloud cover, confidence is still somewhat low at this point.

The threat for flooding is increasing, especially north of the Missouri River.

A large slight risk for excessive rainfall has been placed over much of the forecast area.

Cumulatively, the forecast continues to show widespread 3-5" rain amounts for northern Missouri, mainly north of the Missouri River.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

- Well above normal temperatures are likely Monday and Tuesday along and south of the I-70 corridor.

It's possible a heat advisory will be needed for a portion of the forecast area Monday and Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

Cumulatively, the forecast continues to show widespread 3-5" rain amounts for northern Missouri, mainly north of the Missouri River.

Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns.

As we proceed into the late evening and overnight period, our rain chances will increase once again as the low-level jet ramps up over the Plains and kicks off elevated showers and storms.

It is just to the northwest of this corridor where development is expected to occur on the nose of the intensifying low-level jet roughly around midnight.

With elevated instability and shear, there may be a brief period overnight where we could see some small hail and gustier winds, but even these more organized storms should remain sub-severe.

The main concern would be heavy rainfall, particularly within a corridor south of US-36 and between I-35 and US-65.

Warmer conditions are expected on Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest.

Currently, maximum temperatures in our far south are forecast to top out in the mid 90s, but this is assuming we clear out rapidly after sunrise.

Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will keep heat index values mostly in the upper 90s but some locations that are able to heat up quickly may be able to approach 105.

The warm front is not expected to make it through northeast Missouri by sunset, so temperatures may only top out in the low/mid 80s in those areas.

Behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, isolated storms may be possible across northwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon and evening.

Currently, it seems the more likely scenario for far northwest Missouri is that it gets clipped by upscale growth along the cold front later Monday night.

The cold front will continue moving to the southeast over the course of the day on Tuesday, bringing widespread rain and storm chances to the region (best chances remain north of I-70 but still have 40-50% PoPs further south).

Much of the forecast area is encompassed in an SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) that day, but the greatest threat remains the heavy rainfall with PWATs in excess of 2.0" and very strong isentropic ascent parallel to the boundary and on the nose of the low-level jet.

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will have effectively stalled out along our southern CWA border, only to ever so slightly drift back northward over the course of the day.

Though the setup is not quite as concerning from a rainfall production standpoint, any additional rain on top of what had fallen on Tuesday could exacerbate any existing flooding and flash flooding concerns.

That is, by Wednesday, it doesn't appear that it will take much cause flooding problems, and for this, WPC has included areas generally north of I-70 in yet another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

Additional rainfall is possible Thursday and beyond but these forecasts are lower confidence at this stage.

Regardless, between now and Friday night, we could see a large swath of 3"+ total rain accumulations across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas, with isolated spots potentially exceeding 5".

Along and south of I-70, the cumulative rainfall accumulation forecast is lower, ranging from 0.5" in our far southern tier of counties up to around 2-2.5" in the vicinity of I-70.

It is very likely that a Flood Watch will be necessary for at least part of the forecast area by this time tomorrow.

The question of how warm it will be depends heavily on the speed of the boundary with cloud cover clearing in its wake.

WPC has highlighted the northwestern and western portions of the forecast area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for reasons such as these.

Except for a few of our southeast counties, WPC has enshrouded the area in another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Tuesday.

That is, by Wednesday, it doesn't appear that it will take much cause flooding problems, and for this, WPC has included areas generally north of I-70 in yet another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

It is very likely that a Flood Watch will be necessary for at least part of the forecast area by this time tomorrow.

Flood risk appears to be greatest north of the Missouri River.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for extreme northwestern portions of Missouri on Monday evening.

There is a brief window where all hazards may be possible, but this is low probability.

The severe threat would likely peak between 6 PM and 9 PM before gradually lessening through the overnight period.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for much of the forecast area on Tuesday.

Damaging wind gusts are the main concern.

Currently, maximum temperatures in our far south are forecast to top out in the mid 90s, but this is assuming we clear out rapidly after sunrise.

The question of how warm it will be depends heavily on the speed of the boundary with cloud cover clearing in its wake.

There is a non-zero chance of some sort of discrete development in the warm sector, but this potential seems to be highest further north in eastern Nebraska and southern Iowa.

Currently, it seems the more likely scenario for far northwest Missouri is that it gets clipped by upscale growth along the cold front later Monday night.

Additional rainfall is possible Thursday and beyond but these forecasts are lower confidence at this stage.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for extreme northwestern portions of Missouri on Monday evening.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for much of the forecast area on Tuesday.

It is very likely that a Flood Watch will be necessary for at least part of the forecast area by this time tomorrow.

We may need a flood watch at some point in the next day or so to account for the increasing risk of flooding rainfall.

Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will keep heat index values mostly in the upper 90s but some locations that are able to heat up quickly may be able to approach 105.

This leads to heat index values in the 100 to 105 range.

It's possible a heat advisory will be needed for a portion of the forecast area Monday and Tuesday.

Warmer conditions are expected on Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest.