As we proceed into the late evening and overnight period, our rain chances will increase once again as the low-level jet ramps up over the Plains and kicks off elevated showers and storms.

It is just to the northwest of this corridor where development is expected to occur on the nose of the intensifying low-level jet roughly around midnight.

With elevated instability and shear, there may be a brief period overnight where we could see some small hail and gustier winds, but even these more organized storms should remain sub-severe.

The main concern would be heavy rainfall, particularly within a corridor south of US-36 and between I-35 and US-65.

Warmer conditions are expected on Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest.

Currently, maximum temperatures in our far south are forecast to top out in the mid 90s, but this is assuming we clear out rapidly after sunrise.

Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will keep heat index values mostly in the upper 90s but some locations that are able to heat up quickly may be able to approach 105.

The warm front is not expected to make it through northeast Missouri by sunset, so temperatures may only top out in the low/mid 80s in those areas.

Behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, isolated storms may be possible across northwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon and evening.

Currently, it seems the more likely scenario for far northwest Missouri is that it gets clipped by upscale growth along the cold front later Monday night.

The cold front will continue moving to the southeast over the course of the day on Tuesday, bringing widespread rain and storm chances to the region (best chances remain north of I-70 but still have 40-50% PoPs further south).

Much of the forecast area is encompassed in an SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) that day, but the greatest threat remains the heavy rainfall with PWATs in excess of 2.0" and very strong isentropic ascent parallel to the boundary and on the nose of the low-level jet.

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will have effectively stalled out along our southern CWA border, only to ever so slightly drift back northward over the course of the day.

Though the setup is not quite as concerning from a rainfall production standpoint, any additional rain on top of what had fallen on Tuesday could exacerbate any existing flooding and flash flooding concerns.

That is, by Wednesday, it doesn't appear that it will take much cause flooding problems, and for this, WPC has included areas generally north of I-70 in yet another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

Additional rainfall is possible Thursday and beyond but these forecasts are lower confidence at this stage.

Regardless, between now and Friday night, we could see a large swath of 3"+ total rain accumulations across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas, with isolated spots potentially exceeding 5".

Along and south of I-70, the cumulative rainfall accumulation forecast is lower, ranging from 0.5" in our far southern tier of counties up to around 2-2.5" in the vicinity of I-70.

It is very likely that a Flood Watch will be necessary for at least part of the forecast area by this time tomorrow.

The question of how warm it will be depends heavily on the speed of the boundary with cloud cover clearing in its wake.

WPC has highlighted the northwestern and western portions of the forecast area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for reasons such as these.

Except for a few of our southeast counties, WPC has enshrouded the area in another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Tuesday.

That is, by Wednesday, it doesn't appear that it will take much cause flooding problems, and for this, WPC has included areas generally north of I-70 in yet another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

It is very likely that a Flood Watch will be necessary for at least part of the forecast area by this time tomorrow.

Flood risk appears to be greatest north of the Missouri River.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for extreme northwestern portions of Missouri on Monday evening.

There is a brief window where all hazards may be possible, but this is low probability.

The severe threat would likely peak between 6 PM and 9 PM before gradually lessening through the overnight period.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for much of the forecast area on Tuesday.

Damaging wind gusts are the main concern.

Currently, maximum temperatures in our far south are forecast to top out in the mid 90s, but this is assuming we clear out rapidly after sunrise.

The question of how warm it will be depends heavily on the speed of the boundary with cloud cover clearing in its wake.

There is a non-zero chance of some sort of discrete development in the warm sector, but this potential seems to be highest further north in eastern Nebraska and southern Iowa.

Currently, it seems the more likely scenario for far northwest Missouri is that it gets clipped by upscale growth along the cold front later Monday night.

Additional rainfall is possible Thursday and beyond but these forecasts are lower confidence at this stage.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for extreme northwestern portions of Missouri on Monday evening.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for much of the forecast area on Tuesday.

It is very likely that a Flood Watch will be necessary for at least part of the forecast area by this time tomorrow.

We may need a flood watch at some point in the next day or so to account for the increasing risk of flooding rainfall.

Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will keep heat index values mostly in the upper 90s but some locations that are able to heat up quickly may be able to approach 105.

This leads to heat index values in the 100 to 105 range.

It's possible a heat advisory will be needed for a portion of the forecast area Monday and Tuesday.

Warmer conditions are expected on Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1" in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern Missouri.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

It's uncertain if storms will be able to develop/ overcome the convective inhibition from the morning activity, but if they do they will primarily affect Nebraska and Iowa.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1" in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. - Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri. If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

However, the risk may bleed into northwestern Missouri with time and with MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range with potentially 30-35kts of deep-layer shear, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look possible.

This activity should slide south through the overnight hours as its cold pool builds south, but will be losing its strength as it does.

An unseasonably moist airmass will build into the area south of this boundary, with dewpoints in the lower 70s expected.

- Round 3 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

If storms are able to develop in this environment damaging downbursts winds are the most likely hazard.

Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards.

Additionally, with the hot and humid conditions anticipated, a heat advisory may be needed for areas south of I-70 Tuesday afternoon.

Storms become more widespread overnight with heavy rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

But its this activity that will pose the greatest risk for flooding rainfall, with widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts across northern Missouri possible from just this round of storms.

Locally heavier amounts are likely depending on where storms do develop and eventually train given flow that is essentially parallel to the boundary.

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk, especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to later part of the work week.

MO...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015-020>022.

KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102.

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk, especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to later part of the work week.

- Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1" in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. - Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri. If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

- Round 3 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards.

If storms are able to develop in this environment damaging downbursts winds are the most likely hazard.

Additionally, with the hot and humid conditions anticipated, a heat advisory may be needed for areas south of I-70 Tuesday afternoon.

It's uncertain if storms will be able to develop/ overcome the convective inhibition from the morning activity, but if they do they will primarily affect Nebraska and Iowa.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1" in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. - Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri. If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

Locally heavier amounts are likely depending on where storms do develop and eventually train given flow that is essentially parallel to the boundary.

But, that boundary may become the focus for additional storms Tuesday afternoon.

MO...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015-020>022.

KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

MO...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015-020>022.

KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102.

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

So I'll be cutting this discussion a little short.

lifting through the KC Metro area and into northern MO.

the front, temperatures are in the lower 80s, while temperatures

in the low-to-mid 90s are present behind the front.

gusty (30-35 mph) southerly winds this afternoon as well.

The first opportunity for showers and storms comes late this evening and into the overnight hours across NW MO.

As such, the best chances (50-70%) are confined to areas along and north of US-136.

Sustained southwesterly flow and 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE atop the front will lead to storm formation (60-80%) tomorrow afternoon/evening across northern MO.

This front is progged to stall out across northern MO and become the focus for multiple rounds of showers and storms over the next 2-3 days.

Areas south of the cold front across central MO tomorrow will see another seasonably hot day with temperatures climbing into mid-to-upper 90s with heat indices approaching 105 degrees.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 pm Tuesday through 1 pm Wednesday as storms become more widespread overnight with heavy rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

With PWATs of 2"+, the current forecast calls for 1-3" of rain across northern MO tomorrow night, with locally higher amounts possible.

The stalled front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday bringing highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s back to northern MO over the next few days.

Current long range model guidance depicts another shortwave moving across the Northern Plains towards the end of the week.

A surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, which will push a cold front across the Central Plains and bring cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) to the area.

However, a good amount of uncertainty remains with this forecast given differences in the empirical models at this range.

As such, uncertainty remains as to the tornado potential across northwestern MO this evening, but it is worth noting that the chances are non-zero, particularly with a warm front in play.

Deep layer shear will be marginally favorable (20-30 kts) for storm organization, so the chances for severe weather are low, but not zero.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 pm Tuesday through 1 pm Wednesday as storms become more widespread overnight with heavy rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

To account for this, a Flood Watch has been issued for areas along and north of US-36 and west of US-65 from 18Z [1 PM CDT] tomorrow through 18Z [1 PM CDT] on Wednesday.

KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102.

This, on top of the 5"+ that many areas received this morning, will set the stage for a potential flooding threat.

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk, especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to later part of the work week.

- Round 1 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri.

If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

But as previous mentioned, the best parameter space for severe weather looks to be focused north of the CWA where the SPC Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk exists, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) in play.

- Round 2 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards.

Deep layer shear will be marginally favorable (20-30 kts) for storm organization, so the chances for severe weather are low, but not zero.

Areas south of the cold front across central MO tomorrow will see another seasonably hot day with temperatures climbing into mid-to-upper 90s with heat indices approaching 105 degrees.

Given cloud cover and a front in play, have opted to hold off on a Heat Advisory with this forecast cycle, but one may be needed for tomorrow afternoon across the far southern portion of the CWA.

The one caveat here is that most RAP soundings still show a cap in place, which would limit surface-based convection and limit tornado potential.

As such, uncertainty remains as to the tornado potential across northwestern MO this evening, but it is worth noting that the chances are non-zero, particularly with a warm front in play.

It is not out of the question that the watch will need to be expanded south, but have kept the KC Metro out for now.

With PWATs of 2"+, the current forecast calls for 1-3" of rain across northern MO tomorrow night, with locally higher amounts possible.

However, a good amount of uncertainty remains with this forecast given differences in the empirical models at this range.

Given cloud cover and a front in play, have opted to hold off on a Heat Advisory with this forecast cycle, but one may be needed for tomorrow afternoon across the far southern portion of the CWA.

Additionally, with the hot and humid conditions anticipated, a heat advisory may be needed for areas south of I-70 Tuesday afternoon.

A surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, which will push a cold front across the Central Plains and bring cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) to the area.

However, a good amount of uncertainty remains with this forecast given differences in the empirical models at this range.

- Round 1 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri.

The first opportunity for showers and storms comes late this evening and into the overnight hours across NW MO.

But as previous mentioned, the best parameter space for severe weather looks to be focused north of the CWA where the SPC Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk exists, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) in play.