lifting through the KC Metro area and into northern MO.

the front, temperatures are in the lower 80s, while temperatures

in the low-to-mid 90s are present behind the front.

gusty (30-35 mph) southerly winds this afternoon as well.

The first opportunity for showers and storms comes late this evening and into the overnight hours across NW MO.

As such, the best chances (50-70%) are confined to areas along and north of US-136.

Sustained southwesterly flow and 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE atop the front will lead to storm formation (60-80%) tomorrow afternoon/evening across northern MO.

This front is progged to stall out across northern MO and become the focus for multiple rounds of showers and storms over the next 2-3 days.

Areas south of the cold front across central MO tomorrow will see another seasonably hot day with temperatures climbing into mid-to-upper 90s with heat indices approaching 105 degrees.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 pm Tuesday through 1 pm Wednesday as storms become more widespread overnight with heavy rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

With PWATs of 2"+, the current forecast calls for 1-3" of rain across northern MO tomorrow night, with locally higher amounts possible.

The stalled front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday bringing highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s back to northern MO over the next few days.

Current long range model guidance depicts another shortwave moving across the Northern Plains towards the end of the week.

A surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, which will push a cold front across the Central Plains and bring cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) to the area.

However, a good amount of uncertainty remains with this forecast given differences in the empirical models at this range.

As such, uncertainty remains as to the tornado potential across northwestern MO this evening, but it is worth noting that the chances are non-zero, particularly with a warm front in play.

Deep layer shear will be marginally favorable (20-30 kts) for storm organization, so the chances for severe weather are low, but not zero.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 pm Tuesday through 1 pm Wednesday as storms become more widespread overnight with heavy rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

To account for this, a Flood Watch has been issued for areas along and north of US-36 and west of US-65 from 18Z [1 PM CDT] tomorrow through 18Z [1 PM CDT] on Wednesday.

KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102.

This, on top of the 5"+ that many areas received this morning, will set the stage for a potential flooding threat.

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk, especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to later part of the work week.

- Round 1 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri.

If storms develop/ move into far northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

But as previous mentioned, the best parameter space for severe weather looks to be focused north of the CWA where the SPC Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk exists, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) in play.

- Round 2 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards.

Deep layer shear will be marginally favorable (20-30 kts) for storm organization, so the chances for severe weather are low, but not zero.

Areas south of the cold front across central MO tomorrow will see another seasonably hot day with temperatures climbing into mid-to-upper 90s with heat indices approaching 105 degrees.

Given cloud cover and a front in play, have opted to hold off on a Heat Advisory with this forecast cycle, but one may be needed for tomorrow afternoon across the far southern portion of the CWA.

The one caveat here is that most RAP soundings still show a cap in place, which would limit surface-based convection and limit tornado potential.

As such, uncertainty remains as to the tornado potential across northwestern MO this evening, but it is worth noting that the chances are non-zero, particularly with a warm front in play.

It is not out of the question that the watch will need to be expanded south, but have kept the KC Metro out for now.

With PWATs of 2"+, the current forecast calls for 1-3" of rain across northern MO tomorrow night, with locally higher amounts possible.

However, a good amount of uncertainty remains with this forecast given differences in the empirical models at this range.

Given cloud cover and a front in play, have opted to hold off on a Heat Advisory with this forecast cycle, but one may be needed for tomorrow afternoon across the far southern portion of the CWA.

Additionally, with the hot and humid conditions anticipated, a heat advisory may be needed for areas south of I-70 Tuesday afternoon.

A surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, which will push a cold front across the Central Plains and bring cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) to the area.

However, a good amount of uncertainty remains with this forecast given differences in the empirical models at this range.

- Round 1 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk in far northwestern Missouri.

The first opportunity for showers and storms comes late this evening and into the overnight hours across NW MO.

But as previous mentioned, the best parameter space for severe weather looks to be focused north of the CWA where the SPC Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk exists, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) in play.

- Multiple rounds of rainfall anticipated across NE KS and NW MO starting this morning and continuing through Wednesday morning.

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding.

QPF of 2-3 inches is anticipated across NW MO with locally higher amounts possible.

Looking at temperatures, rain cools down temperatures into 70s and 80s across NW MO and NE KS with upper 90s expected across central MO today.

- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around 80 and central MO in the mid 90s.

Rain continues to linger across the area through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

This Flood Watch was expanded to cover the KC metro as storms look to train over the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

This trend continues into Wednesday where a narrow area of hazardous heat is possible across Cooper county and points south and west with heat index values approaching 100-105F.

The extended pattern remains fairly active with the area remaining in the periphery of a synoptic scale high and a lower level lee trough.

This also looks to lift highs back toward the 90s as the end of the week approaches before a substantial wave moves through the area this weekend bringing additional precipitation chances.

Additional digging trough keep storm chances around through Monday evening before ridging dries us off early to mid next week.

Heavy rainfall remains the primary hazard.

Deterministic guidance has been all over the board with QPF, but given the potential for training storms with heavy downpours, it felt prudent to extend the watch southward.

HREF guidance 25-50 percent chances of exceeding 2 inches of accumulated rainfall with isolated 20-40 percent chances of exceeding 3 inches of rainfall.

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding.

A Flood Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday.

- Runoff is expected to flow into creeks and streams resulting in elevated river levels and accelerated flow.

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday. - Runoff is expected to flow into creeks and streams resulting in elevated river levels and accelerated flow. Poor drainage and urban areas may also see some flooding.

Poor drainage and urban areas may also see some flooding.

This brings about chances for river and flash flooding across much of northern MO and NE KS as flash flood guidance sits at 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall per hour and 3 hours respectively.

CAM guidance does present a small window Tuesday evening where there is the opportunity for some isolated strong to severe storms as the synoptic cold front meets up with a weak boundary from the surface low to the west.

If a storm is able to become surface based ahead of the surface cold front, there is a chance to get some isolated severe gusts out of some storms.

Increased localized shear as the boundaries meet could also bring the potential from some hail or tornado, but chances remain minimal.

There is the potential for some hazardous heat across central and southern MO today and tomorrow as heat index values approach 100F-105F.

This trend continues into Wednesday where a narrow area of hazardous heat is possible across Cooper county and points south and west with heat index values approaching 100-105F.

This combined with limited shear and helicity generally constrain strong to severe potential; however, the transport of moisture upward combined with climatically high PWATs (>= 2 inches across NW MO) yield possibility for training storms with repeated heavy downpours.

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding.

Deterministic guidance has been all over the board with QPF, but given the potential for training storms with heavy downpours, it felt prudent to extend the watch southward.

If a storm is able to become surface based ahead of the surface cold front, there is a chance to get some isolated severe gusts out of some storms.

The wild card in this is will there be enough forcing and instability to initiate further rounds of precipitation through the overnight (unlikely) or how will a larger scale cold front from the NW affect convective initiation.

Current CAM guidance times this front approaching far NW MO/NE KS as sunrise approaches.

This Flood Watch was expanded to cover the KC metro as storms look to train over the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

It is not out of the question that the watch will need to be expanded south, but have kept the KC Metro out for now.

CAM guidance does present a small window Tuesday evening where there is the opportunity for some isolated strong to severe storms as the synoptic cold front meets up with a weak boundary from the surface low to the west.

Heavy rainfall remains the primary hazard.

- Round 2 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around 80 and central MO in the mid 90s.

Looking at temperatures, rain cools down temperatures into 70s and 80s across NW MO and NE KS with upper 90s expected across central MO today.

- Multiple rounds of rainfall anticipated across NE KS and NW MO starting this morning and continuing through Wednesday morning.

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding.

QPF of 2-3 inches is anticipated across NW MO with locally higher amounts possible.

This Flood Watch was expanded to cover the KC metro as storms look to train over the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

Rain continues to linger across the area through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Looking at temperatures, rain cools down temperatures into 70s and 80s across NW MO and NE KS with upper 90s expected across central MO today.

There is the potential for some hazardous heat across central and southern MO today and tomorrow as heat index values approach 100F-105F.

This trend continues into Wednesday where a narrow area of hazardous heat is possible across Cooper county and points south and west with heat index values approaching 100-105F.

This also looks to lift highs back toward the 90s as the end of the week approaches before a substantial wave moves through the area this weekend bringing additional precipitation chances.

Additional digging trough keep storm chances around through Monday evening before ridging dries us off early to mid next week.

Heavy rainfall remains the primary hazard.

Deterministic guidance has been all over the board with QPF, but given the potential for training storms with heavy downpours, it felt prudent to extend the watch southward.

HREF guidance 25-50 percent chances of exceeding 2 inches of accumulated rainfall with isolated 20-40 percent chances of exceeding 3 inches of rainfall.

Increased localized shear as the boundaries meet could also bring the potential from some hail or tornado, but chances remain minimal.

CAM guidance does present a small window Tuesday evening where there is the opportunity for some isolated strong to severe storms as the synoptic cold front meets up with a weak boundary from the surface low to the west.

A Flood Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday.

- Runoff is expected to flow into creeks and streams resulting in elevated river levels and accelerated flow.

Poor drainage and urban areas may also see some flooding.

CAM guidance does present a small window Tuesday evening where there is the opportunity for some isolated strong to severe storms as the synoptic cold front meets up with a weak boundary from the surface low to the west.

If a storm is able to become surface based ahead of the surface cold front, there is a chance to get some isolated severe gusts out of some storms.

Increased localized shear as the boundaries meet could also bring the potential from some hail or tornado, but chances remain minimal.

There is the potential for some hazardous heat across central and southern MO today and tomorrow as heat index values approach 100F-105F.

This trend continues into Wednesday where a narrow area of hazardous heat is possible across Cooper county and points south and west with heat index values approaching 100-105F.

Deterministic guidance has been all over the board with QPF, but given the potential for training storms with heavy downpours, it felt prudent to extend the watch southward.

This combined with limited shear and helicity generally constrain strong to severe potential; however, the transport of moisture upward combined with climatically high PWATs (>= 2 inches across NW MO) yield possibility for training storms with repeated heavy downpours.

If a storm is able to become surface based ahead of the surface cold front, there is a chance to get some isolated severe gusts out of some storms.

KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102>105.

MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015-020>022-028-029-037.

- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around 80 and central MO in the mid 90s.

Looking at temperatures, rain cools down temperatures into 70s and 80s across NW MO and NE KS with upper 90s expected across central MO today.

- Multiple rounds of rainfall anticipated across NE KS and NW MO through tomorrow morning.

rainfall totals of 2-4" forecast for portions of northeastern

Kansas and NW Missouri.

chance for a few strong storms late this afternoon through this

This front is expected to continue to slowly sink

Storms are expected to continue through the overnight tonight fueled by a southwesterly 30-35kt LLJ nosing into the area.

The LLJ is progged to weaken tomorrow morning allowing showers to dissipate.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this feature as it lifts north with the best chances for storms (25-35%) along and north of Highway 36 corridor.

Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s south of the Missouri River, where the warm front will pass earlier in the day, to the mid 70s across northern Missouri where the warm front won't lift through until tomorrow night.

Thursday into Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry and warm with the war front north of the area.

Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s south of the Missouri River, where the warm front will pass earlier in the day, to the mid 70s across northern Missouri where the warm front won't lift through until tomorrow night. Thursday into Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry and warm with the war front north of the area. Highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values south of the Missouri River may approach 105 degrees with a heat advisory possibly being necessary.

Heat index values south of the Missouri River may approach 105 degrees with a heat advisory possibly being necessary.

The upper-level ridge will shift slightly back toward the south- central US, drying things out briefly Friday morning and lifting high temperatures into the 90s.

Highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values south of the Missouri River may approach 105 degrees with a heat advisory possibly being necessary. The upper-level ridge will shift slightly back toward the south- central US, drying things out briefly Friday morning and lifting high temperatures into the 90s. However, this will be short-lived, as an upper-level trough and surface cold front move into our region Friday night into Saturday, bringing rain along the front.

However, this will be short-lived, as an upper-level trough and surface cold front move into our region Friday night into Saturday, bringing rain along the front.

- Additional rounds of storms area expected this weekend which may lead to additional flooding.

This, on top of the rain we could see earlier in the week, may increase the risk of flooding, especially in NW MO.

By Monday, the cold front moves out and high pressure moves in bringing cooler and drier weather with highs in the 70s.

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding as well as river flooding.

What is the biggest concern however, is

Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding as well as river flooding.

A Flood Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday.

particularly for areas of NE KS/NW MO that received 4-7" of rain yesterday morning.

chance for a few strong storms late this afternoon through this

evening that will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. The

is currently extending from Unionville to St Joseph early

There is the potential for some hazardous heat across central and southern MO and tomorrow and Thursday as heat index values approach 100F-105F.

Heat index values south of the Missouri River may approach 105 degrees with a heat advisory possibly being necessary.

- Additional rounds of storms area expected this weekend which may lead to additional flooding.

This, on top of the rain we could see earlier in the week, may increase the risk of flooding, especially in NW MO.

This, on top of the rain we could see earlier in the week, may increase the risk of flooding, especially in NW MO.

rainfall totals of 2-4" forecast for portions of northeastern

Kansas and NW Missouri.

QPF of 2-3 inches is anticipated across NW MO with locally higher amounts possible.

- Additional rounds of storms area expected this weekend which may lead to additional flooding.

This also looks to lift highs back toward the 90s as the end of the week approaches before a substantial wave moves through the area this weekend bringing additional precipitation chances.

evening that will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. The

The focus for these storms and the heavy rainfall will be a slow moving

is currently extending from Unionville to St Joseph early

Increased localized shear as the boundaries meet could also bring the potential from some hail or tornado, but chances remain minimal.

By Monday, the cold front moves out and high pressure moves in bringing cooler and drier weather with highs in the 70s.

Additional digging trough keep storm chances around through Monday evening before ridging dries us off early to mid next week.

evening that will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. The

winds and brief small hail.

Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow morning the frontal boundary will lift back north across the CWA as a warm front.

- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around 80 and central MO in the mid 90s.

Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s south of the Missouri River, where the warm front will pass earlier in the day, to the mid 70s across northern Missouri where the warm front won't lift through until tomorrow night.