Expect highs underneath areas with lingering cloud cover to struggle to do much more than the upper 70s to low 80s

cooler north to warm to hot and humid as you work southward across the area

- Fog potential tonight into Thursday morning, mainly near and north of Highway 36

While the surface front may not fully lift out of Missouri and into Iowa, it should be enough to keep activity into Iowa.

Even if some activity clips the far northern portions of Missouri, the activity should be on the more progressive side with a notable lack of above surface boundary for storms to train along and migrating LLJ.

In general it will set up another day where Northern Missouri will feel drastically different than areas near and south of I-70.

Northern areas could also see a few showers or general thunder as weak isentropic lift continues as well, but in similar fashion to today should weaken as the day progresses.

- Seasonally hot and humid conditions for areas around/south of Missouri River and I-70 through Friday.

Including highs into the 90s and heat index values into the low 100s possible.

The waffling surface boundary/warm front will see another northward surge Friday as surface low develops and pushes off the Colorado Front Range.

By this point the Norther Plains surface high will have pushed eastward and may keep shower/storm chances ongoing for NE portions of the CWA.

This will also again potentially yield a dramatic difference in conditions across the CWA itself.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms possible over the weekend.

that front will potentially stall out over our forecast area

bringing the potential for multiple rounds of rain Saturday and Sunday night.

- Cooler, more seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures begin to overspread the region later Sunday and into next week.

Highs falling into the 70s.

there is high confidence the cold front will move off to the SE on Monday

There is some uncertainty in just how far south it will be able to retreat.

- Fog potential tonight into Thursday morning, mainly near and north of Highway 36

Otherwise, potential for some fog in the vicinity of the surface front and northward given moist low levels and light to nil winds tonight and have added as much into the forecast.

- Seasonally hot and humid conditions for areas around/south of Missouri River and I-70 through Friday.

Including highs into the 90s and heat index values into the low 100s possible.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms possible over the weekend.

that front will potentially stall out over our forecast area

bringing the potential for multiple rounds of rain Saturday and Sunday night.

Did briefly consider lining up with DMX/DVN a new Flood Watch for tonight, and while much of the area has seen plentiful/saturating rainfall with confidence increasing in the location, have opted against.

There is some uncertainty in just how far south it will be able to retreat.

Including highs into the 90s and heat index values into the low 100s possible.

The 850mb thermal ridge will remain overhead across the area, so the importance of the surface boundary ties to cloud cover and mixing depth potential.

Even if some activity clips the far northern portions of Missouri, the activity should be on the more progressive side with a notable lack of above surface boundary for storms to train along and migrating LLJ.

it will be fighting the upper-level ridge over the SE US

that front will potentially stall out over our forecast area

- Fog potential tonight into Thursday morning, mainly near and north of Highway 36

Otherwise, potential for some fog in the vicinity of the surface front and northward given moist low levels and light to nil winds tonight and have added as much into the forecast.

there is high confidence the cold front will move off to the SE on Monday

high temperatures in the 70s

- The overall weather pattern from the past 2-3 days is expected to continue with the potential for another prolonged rain event over the weekend into next week.

Initial forecasts suggested the ~90 deg F line to be around the east-west portions of the Missouri River.

more likely to be a tier of counties northward

Right now, the forecast calls for the boundary to make it to the MO River Valley; however, there is a chance that the boundary could advance further north bringing hotter air further northward.

bringing the potential for multiple rounds of rain Saturday and Sunday night.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue through the morning hours.

More sparse coverage has overall lowered flooding concerns; however, isolated flooding remains possible from heavy downpours.

Areas where it rains after sunrise range from the mid 70s to mid 80s while places south of the boundary reach the low to upper 90s with heat index values of 100-105F.

- Areas of dense fog (visibility < 1/4 mile) along the MO/IA/NE borders potentially extending to the US-36 corridor.

- Small chance for showers across the NW corner of MO this morning.

Fog dissipates after sunrise with southerly flow once again dominating.

Highs north of I-70 range from the 80s to the low 90s with areas south of I-70 from the 90s to near 100F.

Heat index values crest 100F along and south of the MO River peaking at 105-107 across central and SW MO.

This warming trend continues into Friday as the high ever so slowly build northward.

Additional small chances in NE MO early Friday morning.

Strangely, this will be on display overnight Friday into Saturday as most areas will see lows in the low to mid 70s.

The nocturnal LLJ will also crank up combined with multiple avenues for ascent resulting in showers and thunderstorms developing early Saturday morning.

Ensemble guidance places the most likely chances for showers Saturday morning across far NW MO, but it is not implausible for rain chances to extend southward toward the I-70 corridor.

More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday.

However, additional waves are expected to travel this path thanks in part to a synoptic cold front that is expected to approach Saturday afternoon.

This large scale front also runs into resistance from the high creating a channel across KS and NW MO for the waves and accompanying rain to follow.

This set up sticks around through Sunday into early Monday looking fairly similar to what we saw Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Warm into the weekend before cooler, more seasonable temperatures return next week.

The good news is that behind the cold front, temperatures dip back into the 70s and 80s.

This brings more transitive flow of system through the continent which looks to keep the extended pattern active with multiple chances for rain through the next week.

Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain as to the location of where this cyclogenesis will manifest itself, but consensus places it in the eastern CO foothills to the NE Sand Hills.

It remains fairly uncertain the exact hazards and impacts as resolution of convective variables remains rather course.

Uncertainties will narrow as higher resolution guidance comes into range.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>005- 011.

dense fog advisory for

- Areas of dense fog (visibility < 1/4 mile) along the MO/IA/NE borders potentially extending to the US-36 corridor.

It is unlikely dense fog will

extend much past the US-36 corridor.

Heat index values crest 100F along and south of the MO River peaking at 105-107 across central and SW MO.

This brings the potential for training showers and storms along a SW to NE oriented boundary.

PWAT values around 2 inches are on the higher side of normal creating an environment for heavy downpours.

The air mass behind this front is notably cooler than what we currently have, and such a transition is unlikely without at least a slim chance for isolated robust convection.

possible expansion SE depending on how fog

advects from weather to the north

Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain as to the location of where this cyclogenesis will manifest itself, but consensus places it in the eastern CO foothills to the NE Sand Hills.

Uncertainties will narrow as higher resolution guidance comes into range.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>005- 011.

- Fog potential tonight into Thursday morning, mainly near and north of Highway 36

Heat index values crest 100F along and south of the MO River peaking at 105-107 across central and SW MO.

Including highs into the 90s and heat index values into the low 100s possible.

of a weak surface cold front stretched across northern Missouri.

South of this front temperatures will achieve the low to mid 90s

with heat index values in the 100-105 range. For areas behind the

For areas behind the front across the northern CWA temperatures will hold in the low to mid 80s.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning.

This will bring the chance for a few storms across the north central

and northeastern Missouri overnight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow,

WAA will aid in highs rising into the upper 80s to upper 90s. Heat

index values will range from the upper 90s to near 105.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday.

There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

- Hot Conditions persist through Saturday before cooler, more seasonable temperatures return early next week.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night. Storms will potentially stick around throughout the weekend as ensemble consensus shows the front stalling out across our CWA as the trough and ridge fight for dominance over our CWA. This setup favors the development of shortwaves that could bring several rounds of showers Saturday and Sunday. A few of the storms on Saturday afternoon/evening may be strong to severe with isolated damaging winds the main threat.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday. - A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

Storms will potentially stick around throughout the weekend as ensemble consensus shows the front stalling out across our CWA as the trough and ridge fight for dominance over our CWA.

The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance.

On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties.

Deterministic guidance also has PWAT values near 2.0 inches along the front, which is above average for this time of year and as a result we could see locally heavy rainfall along the front. The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance. On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties. Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

There is increased confidence that the upper-level trough in the Pacific NW will progress southeast Saturday night, beginning to flatten out the ridge of high pressure over the SE CONUS.

- Hot Conditions persist through Saturday before cooler, more seasonable temperatures return early next week.

with heat index values in the 100-105 range. For areas behind the

index values will range from the upper 90s to near 105.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday. - A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA.

The exit region of the trough will likely set up over the rockies, favoring the development of a surface low and synoptic cold front at the surface. There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA. This boundary may coincide with the development of a nocturnal LLJ Friday night. While we are still far enough out that the CAMs can't resolve the entire event Friday night into Saturday, there is a signal for fairly strong CAPE values Friday evening over NW MO.

While we are still far enough out that the CAMs can't resolve the entire event Friday night into Saturday, there is a signal for fairly strong CAPE values Friday evening over NW MO.

The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

It remains fairly uncertain the exact hazards and impacts as resolution of convective variables remains rather course.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

PWAT values around 2 inches are on the higher side of normal creating an environment for heavy downpours.

On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties.

Deterministic guidance also has PWAT values near 2.0 inches along the front, which is above average for this time of year and as a result we could see locally heavy rainfall along the front. The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance. On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties. Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

PWAT values around 2 inches are on the higher side of normal creating an environment for heavy downpours. Uncertainties will narrow as higher resolution guidance comes into range. The good news is that behind the cold front, temperatures dip back into the 70s and 80s. The upper level high is slowly beat into submission creating more zonal flow across the interior CONUS.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning.

This will bring the chance for a few storms across the north central