of a weak surface cold front stretched across northern Missouri.

South of this front temperatures will achieve the low to mid 90s

with heat index values in the 100-105 range. For areas behind the

For areas behind the front across the northern CWA temperatures will hold in the low to mid 80s.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning.

This will bring the chance for a few storms across the north central

and northeastern Missouri overnight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow,

WAA will aid in highs rising into the upper 80s to upper 90s. Heat

index values will range from the upper 90s to near 105.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday.

There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

- Hot Conditions persist through Saturday before cooler, more seasonable temperatures return early next week.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night. Storms will potentially stick around throughout the weekend as ensemble consensus shows the front stalling out across our CWA as the trough and ridge fight for dominance over our CWA. This setup favors the development of shortwaves that could bring several rounds of showers Saturday and Sunday. A few of the storms on Saturday afternoon/evening may be strong to severe with isolated damaging winds the main threat.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday. - A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

Storms will potentially stick around throughout the weekend as ensemble consensus shows the front stalling out across our CWA as the trough and ridge fight for dominance over our CWA.

The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance.

On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties.

Deterministic guidance also has PWAT values near 2.0 inches along the front, which is above average for this time of year and as a result we could see locally heavy rainfall along the front. The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance. On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties. Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

There is increased confidence that the upper-level trough in the Pacific NW will progress southeast Saturday night, beginning to flatten out the ridge of high pressure over the SE CONUS.

- Hot Conditions persist through Saturday before cooler, more seasonable temperatures return early next week.

with heat index values in the 100-105 range. For areas behind the

index values will range from the upper 90s to near 105.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday. - A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA.

The exit region of the trough will likely set up over the rockies, favoring the development of a surface low and synoptic cold front at the surface. There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA. This boundary may coincide with the development of a nocturnal LLJ Friday night. While we are still far enough out that the CAMs can't resolve the entire event Friday night into Saturday, there is a signal for fairly strong CAPE values Friday evening over NW MO.

While we are still far enough out that the CAMs can't resolve the entire event Friday night into Saturday, there is a signal for fairly strong CAPE values Friday evening over NW MO.

The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

It remains fairly uncertain the exact hazards and impacts as resolution of convective variables remains rather course.

Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

PWAT values around 2 inches are on the higher side of normal creating an environment for heavy downpours.

On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties.

Deterministic guidance also has PWAT values near 2.0 inches along the front, which is above average for this time of year and as a result we could see locally heavy rainfall along the front. The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance. On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties. Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

PWAT values around 2 inches are on the higher side of normal creating an environment for heavy downpours. Uncertainties will narrow as higher resolution guidance comes into range. The good news is that behind the cold front, temperatures dip back into the 70s and 80s. The upper level high is slowly beat into submission creating more zonal flow across the interior CONUS.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning.

This will bring the chance for a few storms across the north central

high temperatures into the mid 90s south of

Hwy. 36. Northern Missouri and locations closer to the Iowa border

may remain cooler depending how far north the boundary tracks

A few sprinkles may occur in northern Missouri near the

most of the forecast area dry for Friday.

Mid-level lift may increase a bit as we start to see H5 height falls with the approach of this feature, presenting isolated to scattered shower/storm potential Saturday morning and afternoon.

With temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s at least, rain shower and storm activity should increase coverage through the evening, as prior daytime heating destabilizes the boundary layer.

Mid-level cooling should help to steepen mid-level lapse rates, allowing the development of stronger updrafts, and a few of these storms could become severe.

The front should then push completely through on Sunday, which will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Areas north of Interstate 70 earlier this week saw heavy amounts of rain, and may run into issues. However, if hourly rainfall rates remain light and occur over a longer duration into early Sunday morning, hydro issues can be mitigated. The front should then push completely through on Sunday, which will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Perhaps far southern and southeastern zones hit the mid 80s.

Perhaps far southern and southeastern zones hit the mid 80s.

This will also depend on lingering cloud and light rainfall activity, as there may still be some lift on the backside of the cold front.

As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough with the strongest storms through Sunday morning.

Monday will start a cooler period, after spending much of September thus far above average.

Another H5 trough is progged to move across the Central CONUS this time, which may continue shower activity, with ensemble guidance suggesting slight chances generally between 25-35% across the area.

Conditions then appear drier for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Isolated to scattered rain showers re-enter the forecast Thursday and Friday next week, and temperatures may start to climb back toward the mid 70s.

Portions of central and eastern Kansas may see better deep layer shear, with 0-6km bulk values around 30 kts, but unsure how far east this gets into our forecast area, as the mid-level trough may start to lift before spreading over our area.

This may be a limiting factor in severe potential in storms on Saturday and early Sunday.

This may be a limiting factor in severe potential in storms on Saturday and early Sunday. Appreciable CAPE through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind gusts. As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough with the strongest storms through Sunday morning. We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall.

We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall.

Mid-level cooling should help to steepen mid-level lapse rates, allowing the development of stronger updrafts, and a few of these storms could become severe.

This may be a limiting factor in severe potential in storms on Saturday and early Sunday.

Appreciable CAPE through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind gusts.

Appreciable CAPE through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind gusts. As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough with the strongest storms through Sunday morning. We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall. Areas north of Interstate 70 earlier this week saw heavy amounts of rain, and may run into issues.

As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough with the strongest storms through Sunday morning. We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall. Areas north of Interstate 70 earlier this week saw heavy amounts of rain, and may run into issues. However, if hourly rainfall rates remain light and occur over a longer duration into early Sunday morning, hydro issues can be mitigated.

However, if hourly rainfall rates remain light and occur over a longer duration into early Sunday morning, hydro issues can be mitigated.

Portions of central and eastern Kansas may see better deep layer shear, with 0-6km bulk values around 30 kts, but unsure how far east this gets into our forecast area, as the mid-level trough may start to lift before spreading over our area.

This may be a limiting factor in severe potential in storms on Saturday and early Sunday.

We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall.

Appreciable CAPE through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind gusts. As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough with the strongest storms through Sunday morning. We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall. Areas north of Interstate 70 earlier this week saw heavy amounts of rain, and may run into issues.

However, if hourly rainfall rates remain light and occur over a longer duration into early Sunday morning, hydro issues can be mitigated.

may remain cooler depending how far north the boundary tracks

most of the forecast area dry for Friday.

A few sprinkles may occur in northern Missouri near the

All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

The front should then push completely through on Sunday, which will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties.

Appreciable CAPE through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind gusts.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat.

We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall.

The front should then push completely through on Sunday, which will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.