Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 4:14 p.m. Fri Sep 18, current when the day began
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (it got part of the NWS text wrong), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Chance for showers/storms across northwestern MO overnight into tomorrow morning (30-45%). Some storms could be strong, but are expected to remain subsevere. - Another round of showers/storms likely (60-75%) tomorrow evening into Sunday morning. Primary hazards include heavy rainfall and severe hail/winds. - Temperatures cooling going into early next week.
Earlier fog over northern Missouri has eroded away this afternoon, with temperatures across the area climbing into the 90s as daytime heating has commenced. A warm frontal boundary draped across north- central Missouri is projected to continue pushing northward through the rest of the afternoon, with agitated cumulus over central Missouri following upstream. While the presence of this cumulus suggests the presence of atmospheric instability, overall probabilities for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening remain low, with greater synoptic forcing for ascent located further north with a surface cyclone and shortwave trough positioned over the Plains. This cyclone and associated shortwave will be the primary driver for storm chances overnight tonight. The greater focus for any severe activity resides closer to the immediate vicinity of the synoptic front/surface cyclone and forcing along the intensifying low-level jet. However, recent CAM guidance continues to indicate additional convection popping up along a boundary that ejects off the primary line towards the southeast, bringing higher chances (30-45%) of precipitation to an area generally along/northwest of I-35 by early morning tomorrow. The overall environment doesn't look incredibly favorable for the development of severe storms with this activity, with decreasing instability in the mixed-layer and marginal shear as the night progresses. However, stronger storms with heavy rainfall and lightning remain possible. By tomorrow morning, activity looks to taper off across northern Missouri with the retreating low-level jet and shortwave trough towards the Great Lakes. However, another shortwave trough will reinvigorate the atmosphere for a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms in the evening/overnight via enhanced warm/moist transport across the forecast area as the shortwave lifts northeast across Missouri. This, coupled with the synoptic-scale cold front lingering behind the previous system pushing southeastward, will provide ample instability and ascent for the development of strong/severe storms. However, shear looks to remain just marginal (~25-30 kts) alongside mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7 degC/km, which brings into question the ability of storm updrafts to organize and maintain intensity. With these factors in mind, still anticipating a severe hail/wind threat with any storms that are able to organize and maintain intensity, but confidence in widespread severe storms is not high. Another caveat to consider with activity tomorrow is the potential for heavy rainfall to create some hydrological concerns. Some guidance indicates that thunderstorms could train along the boundary with parallel moisture transport vectors in the low-levels, which, coupled with climatologically high PWATs around 2 inches, enhances efficient/prolonged rainfall in storms for some risk of flooding. However, other guidance suggests that rainfall will be progressive enough that these concerns might be mitigated. Activity on Saturday will influence how Sunday pans out, specifically regarding the potential for continued showers/storms to close out the weekend. The cold front looks to continue pushing southward, with guidance indicating increasing chances for precipitation (30-60%) Sunday afternoon and evening along this boundary. PoPs will be bolstered by a passing low-level shortwave in the flow providing greater synoptic ascent with enhanced vorticity advection. However, there is continued spread in the position of the cold front and how fast it progresses southward during Sunday. If it passes through quicker, the environment looks to be less favorable for activity with greater cool/dry advection from the north. This trend will need to continue to be monitored in subsequent forecasts to better hone messaging closer to the end of the weekend. Going into the week next week, PoPs decrease as weather cools and dry considerably from this previous week under north/northeasterly flow, ushering in much cooler (and better) weather relative to this prior week. High temperatures reside in the 60s and 70s for much of the area through the early week, with overnight lows dipping into the 50s. By midweek, there is indication of a renewed ridge building across the central CONUS, which will serve to increase temperatures once again by the end of the forecast period across the area. However, this rise in temperatures looks to not be as dramatic, with highs topping out in the high 70s along and south of I-70.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 3:08 a.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Hot and Humid Saturday Afternoon - Thunderstorms This Evening through Overnight; Some Severe Storms Possible - Cooler After Sunday
The trough over the Intermountain West will send a few vort maxima into the Central CONUS as we head into Saturday, which will provide gradual H5 height falls across the area. The dCVA associated with this will continue to deepen a surface cyclone which is beginning to expand eastward, with surface pressure falls currently reaching into eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska. The warm front that moved through today made into the far northeastern zones of the forecast area, and extends into northwest Iowa, while the cold front trailing this system is currently positioned from roughly Omaha, Nebraska southwestward toward Colby, Kansas as of 08z this morning. Radar early this morning is starting to show activity in southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the Triple Point, co-located with an area of upper-level divergence. Off and on rain showers and perhaps some scattered thunderstorms will develop as the day progresses through early afternoon, but should remain mostly sub- severe in our forecast area. Continued low-level southerly flow will provide WAA keeping air temperatures in the mid 90s today, with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. The main focus for strong thunderstorm activity is favored after 23z this evening, mainly along the cold front as the primary forcing mechanism. Ahead of the cold front, most of the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley will have plenty of daytime insolation that will work to destabilize the boundary layer. As the main short-wave trough moves overhead, mid-level cooling will promote steeper mid-level lapse rates that will pave the path for stronger updrafts, especially as this sits on top of warm moist boundary layer. As the primary short-wave trough axis moves through, stronger mid-level jet streak should help to provide increasing deep layer shear, with 0- 6km bulk values around 30-35 kts, and some deterministic guidance does show this overspreading parts of the warm sector and extends behind the cold front. This solution is a bit further east than what previous numerical model guidance was suggesting the past couple of days. Based on 00z HREF guidance, the warm sector appears capable of SBCAPE above 1500 J/kg across much of the forecast, with a concentrated axis of near 2500 J/kg from near Emporia KS northeast toward south-central Iowa, just clipping the Kansas City Metro northland. The initial development of the strongest storms is expected over Central Kansas after daytime heating. West of the forecast area, initial storms will remain discrete, and with some directional shear in the first kilometer or two, could see a few supercells develop out there. However, by the time strongest convergence along the cold front enters our eastern and northeastern Kansas Counties, the deep layer shear vector is progged to orient more parallel to the boundary and with the low-level jet increasing, is expected to result in upscale growth into some kind of QLCS or MCS like mode. Depending on the amount of boundary layer mixing that occurs and how quickly the front propagates, RAP soundings on the warm side of the boundary have been hinting at inverted-v like structure below the progged cloud bases, with DCAPE pushing above 1100 J/kg. This type of environment would favor downburst potential with newer updrafts. But then as upscale growth continues, stronger cool pool development may lead to strong outflow winds. Current expectation is that the large hail threat will mainly be confined to areas well west of Kansas City tied to where a supercell storm mode is more likely. However, if along the front we have more broken line segments and still get new updraft development, the steep mid-level lapse rates and healthy CAPE profiles through the hail-growth zone may help get hail stones up to around golf ball size. Heading into the overnight hours, even after FROPA, another area of mid-level height falls will promote additional lift, and is expected to keep shower and thunderstorm activity going. While the severe hail and wind threat may start to diminish, especially as the front moves toward Central Missouri, continued rainfall may augment hydro and flooding issues that started earlier this week, especially for areas north of the Kansas City Metro that were hit hard this week. HREF proability-matched mean QPF values are roughly around 1 inch, but there are concerns that these values could be exceeded if this boundary stalls. Current deterministic CAM guidance suggests that the stronger storms and showers will be fairly progressive enough to limit training, with stratiform rain trailing the main system having fairly low hourly rainfall rates. With most guidance suggesting that showers will start to weaken as they cross into Missouri, have not issued a Flood Watch. We will note that some rivers and streams are running at elevated levels from the heavy rain that occurred earlier this week, and if rainfall above 1.00 inch falls into those basins, may send some rivers back to flood stage. Sunday, the main cold front will pass through by the early evening. Southern zones in the forecast area may still hit the mid 80s for temperatures, while northern Missouri and northeast Kansas will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s for daily highs. Continued H5 disturbances may provide more rain shower activity, but thunderstorm potential should be limited as there does not appear to a great opportunity for destabilization. We may see more rain shower activity reinvigorate early Monday as H5 closed-low sits over the Upper Midwest, but uncertain how much lift that will provide for the lower Missouri River Valley. The next work week will feature much more seasonable afternoon temperatures.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 3:46 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters call storms tonight in eastern Kansas and western Missouri likely (60-75%). They are uncertain about Sunday afternoon and evening, when models disagree, so they lowered and broadened rain chances.
Areawide, temperatures have climbed into the low/mid 90s amidstNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
- Showers and thunderstorms likely (30-50%) areawide tonight and tomorrow morning, with highest likelihood (60-75%) across eastern KS/western MO.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
- Showers and thunderstorms likely (30-50%) areawide tonight and tomorrow morning, with highest likelihood (60-75%) across eastern KS/western MO. Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail, and severe winds.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Recent model guidance has trended towards slowing down the forward progression of the cold front overnight into tomorrow morning, with storms lingering through at least the late morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
- Lingering probabilities (30-50%) for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening; higher potential exists further south and east.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
With continued uncertainty in the exact position of these mechanisms, have elected to once again lower and broaden PoPs across the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with the potential existing for scattered showers/storms but uncertainty remaining higher in exact timing/location.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Recent CAM guidance has not been incredibly helpful in agreeing on one particular solution over the other, with scenarios ranging from quiet weather to a complex of thunderstorms pushing through the forecast area by the late afternoon/early evening depending on the placement of the synoptic- scale features.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Any remnant activity from Sunday will gradually phase out by Monday evening as the cold front continues to push towards the southeast out of the forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
At the synoptic scale, predominantly northerly flow on the backside of a retreating upper trough will introduce much cooler and drier conditions through the early half of next week, with daytime highs and overnight lows cooling down to the 60s and 50s, respectively.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
By the later half of next week, ridging looks to build back across the southern half of the CONUS, with guidance progressively indicating warmer and wetter conditions with the intrusion of shortwave perturbations in the upper-level flow off the Rockies.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
With ascent along the cold front exacerbated by the oncoming shortwave and its associated vorticity advection/height falls, the potential for thunderstorm development across eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening continues to look likely (60-75%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Severe winds are the main threat this evening as storms merge and move east/northeast. Larger hail is more likely toward the southwest of the area. Severe chances drop overnight, but stronger storms could still bring wind or hail.
Strong storms could bring heavy rain and localized water problems. Storms should keep moving enough that rain stays below flash flood levels, but storms repeating over the same spots could raise concerns, especially if the front stalls.
The larger focus for severe threats going into the evening will be towards severe wind as storms congeal and become more elevated/cold pool dominant as they push east/northeast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
However, the greater opportunity for larger hail resides further towards the southwest of the forecast area, as storms initiate along the boundary amidst higher CAPE and effective bulk shear.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Severe potential decreases through the overnight period, but stronger storms could still pose a wind/hail risk with elevated CAPE and continued steepening lapse rates with the front.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
There continues to be an additional risk for heavy rainfall creating localized hydro concerns, but overnight activity looks to remain progressive enough that even 6 hourly accumulations look to remain below flash flood guidance across the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
However, the environment still remains favorable for efficient rainfall in the strongest storms (PWATs ~2"), and any training thunderstorms could increase hydro concerns with continued rainfall accumulations, especially if the cold front slows/stalls over time.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
However, the environment still remains favorable for efficient rainfall in the strongest storms (PWATs ~2"), and any training thunderstorms could increase hydro concerns with continued rainfall accumulations, especially if the cold front slows/stalls over time.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Potential activity tomorrow afternoon/evening will depend on the location of the cold frontal boundary in relation to further shortwave perturbations in the atmospheric flow, as there looks to be some lingering instability in the atmosphere that could be invigorated with synoptic ascent and organized by sufficient shear.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Recent CAM guidance has not been incredibly helpful in agreeing on one particular solution over the other, with scenarios ranging from quiet weather to a complex of thunderstorms pushing through the forecast area by the late afternoon/early evening depending on the placement of the synoptic- scale features.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Recent model guidance has trended towards slowing down the forward progression of the cold front overnight into tomorrow morning, with storms lingering through at least the late morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
- Lingering probabilities (30-50%) for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening; higher potential exists further south and east.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Continued H5 disturbances may provide more rain shower activity, but thunderstorm potential should be limited as there does not appear to a great opportunity for destabilization.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:44 p.m. Sat Sep 19
At the synoptic scale, predominantly northerly flow on the backside of a retreating upper trough will introduce much cooler and drier conditions through the early half of next week, with daytime highs and overnight lows cooling down to the 60s and 50s, respectively.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
The next work week will feature much more seasonable afternoon temperatures.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:44 p.m. Sat Sep 19
There continues to be an additional risk for heavy rainfall creating localized hydro concerns, but overnight activity looks to remain progressive enough that even 6 hourly accumulations look to remain below flash flood guidance across the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
if rainfall above 1.00 inch falls into those basins,NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:44 p.m. Sat Sep 19
may send some rivers back to flood stage.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:44 p.m. Sat Sep 19
- Showers and thunderstorms likely (30-50%) areawide tonight and tomorrow morning, with highest likelihood (60-75%) across eastern KS/western MO.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Sep 19
- Lingering probabilities (30-50%) for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening; higher potential exists further south and east.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:46 p.m. Sat Sep 19
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.