Areawide, temperatures have climbed into the low/mid 90s amidst

- Showers and thunderstorms likely (30-50%) areawide tonight and tomorrow morning, with highest likelihood (60-75%) across eastern KS/western MO.

- Showers and thunderstorms likely (30-50%) areawide tonight and tomorrow morning, with highest likelihood (60-75%) across eastern KS/western MO. Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail, and severe winds.

Recent model guidance has trended towards slowing down the forward progression of the cold front overnight into tomorrow morning, with storms lingering through at least the late morning.

- Lingering probabilities (30-50%) for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening; higher potential exists further south and east.

With continued uncertainty in the exact position of these mechanisms, have elected to once again lower and broaden PoPs across the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with the potential existing for scattered showers/storms but uncertainty remaining higher in exact timing/location.

Recent CAM guidance has not been incredibly helpful in agreeing on one particular solution over the other, with scenarios ranging from quiet weather to a complex of thunderstorms pushing through the forecast area by the late afternoon/early evening depending on the placement of the synoptic- scale features.

Any remnant activity from Sunday will gradually phase out by Monday evening as the cold front continues to push towards the southeast out of the forecast area.

At the synoptic scale, predominantly northerly flow on the backside of a retreating upper trough will introduce much cooler and drier conditions through the early half of next week, with daytime highs and overnight lows cooling down to the 60s and 50s, respectively.

By the later half of next week, ridging looks to build back across the southern half of the CONUS, with guidance progressively indicating warmer and wetter conditions with the intrusion of shortwave perturbations in the upper-level flow off the Rockies.

With ascent along the cold front exacerbated by the oncoming shortwave and its associated vorticity advection/height falls, the potential for thunderstorm development across eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening continues to look likely (60-75%).

The larger focus for severe threats going into the evening will be towards severe wind as storms congeal and become more elevated/cold pool dominant as they push east/northeast.

However, the greater opportunity for larger hail resides further towards the southwest of the forecast area, as storms initiate along the boundary amidst higher CAPE and effective bulk shear.

Severe potential decreases through the overnight period, but stronger storms could still pose a wind/hail risk with elevated CAPE and continued steepening lapse rates with the front.

There continues to be an additional risk for heavy rainfall creating localized hydro concerns, but overnight activity looks to remain progressive enough that even 6 hourly accumulations look to remain below flash flood guidance across the area.

However, the environment still remains favorable for efficient rainfall in the strongest storms (PWATs ~2"), and any training thunderstorms could increase hydro concerns with continued rainfall accumulations, especially if the cold front slows/stalls over time.

However, the environment still remains favorable for efficient rainfall in the strongest storms (PWATs ~2"), and any training thunderstorms could increase hydro concerns with continued rainfall accumulations, especially if the cold front slows/stalls over time.

Potential activity tomorrow afternoon/evening will depend on the location of the cold frontal boundary in relation to further shortwave perturbations in the atmospheric flow, as there looks to be some lingering instability in the atmosphere that could be invigorated with synoptic ascent and organized by sufficient shear.

Recent CAM guidance has not been incredibly helpful in agreeing on one particular solution over the other, with scenarios ranging from quiet weather to a complex of thunderstorms pushing through the forecast area by the late afternoon/early evening depending on the placement of the synoptic- scale features.

Recent model guidance has trended towards slowing down the forward progression of the cold front overnight into tomorrow morning, with storms lingering through at least the late morning.

- Lingering probabilities (30-50%) for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening; higher potential exists further south and east.

Continued H5 disturbances may provide more rain shower activity, but thunderstorm potential should be limited as there does not appear to a great opportunity for destabilization.

At the synoptic scale, predominantly northerly flow on the backside of a retreating upper trough will introduce much cooler and drier conditions through the early half of next week, with daytime highs and overnight lows cooling down to the 60s and 50s, respectively.

The next work week will feature much more seasonable afternoon temperatures.

There continues to be an additional risk for heavy rainfall creating localized hydro concerns, but overnight activity looks to remain progressive enough that even 6 hourly accumulations look to remain below flash flood guidance across the area.

if rainfall above 1.00 inch falls into those basins,

may send some rivers back to flood stage.

- Showers and thunderstorms likely (30-50%) areawide tonight and tomorrow morning, with highest likelihood (60-75%) across eastern KS/western MO.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Lingering probabilities (30-50%) for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening; higher potential exists further south and east.

- Additional Rain Shower Activity Today, More Possible Monday

lift across much of the lower Missouri River through most of Sunday

maintaining rain shower chances through most of the day

The main synoptic cold front should push through during the middle of Sunday morning

general shower activity continues into Central Missouri and eastern Kansas

By Monday, the surface cyclone and cold front will have cleared the forecast area, leaving seasonable temperatures for the afternoon.

Deterministic guidance still depicts a closed mid-level mainly over the upper-Midwest, but some lift may still be possible into the lower Missouri River Valley.

Ensemble suites continue to point to 30- 40 percent probabilities for light rainfall, especially through Monday late morning and early afternoon.

This lift should move eastward by Monday Night, where conditions will finally dry out.

Through the middle of the week, H5 ridge develops over the western CONUS and provides northwesterly flow, which will help keep high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Current forecast remains dry through Wednesday, with the next feature that breaks down the mid-level ridge progged to move in Thursday when our next mentionable precipitation chances return to the forecast.

- Cooler Temperatures This Week

Amongst ensemble members though, there is larger spread in how expansive the lift is associated with the feature over the Midwest, and as a result may be causing higher probabilities over too large of an area.

As of 07z [2 AM CDT] this morning the surface cold front is located from near Manhattan KS to southeast Iowa.

activity to develop on both sides of the cold front

A few strong cores are still possible with elevated CAPE present

perhaps still producing stronger convergence in our southern and southeastern zones through the middle of the afternoon.

Redevelopment of stronger thunderstorms may be possible from Bates County MO to Pettis and perhaps even Cooper Counties.

But most of the stronger activity should then push toward the Interstate 44 corridor and Ozarks Region

So far rainfall rates have been fairly light, and should remain this way thus limiting hydro and areal flooding issues.

We will still continue to monitor river levels and fast responding streams particularly in the KC metro.

Amongst ensemble members though, there is larger spread in how expansive the lift is associated with the feature over the Midwest, and as a result may be causing higher probabilities over too large of an area.

So far rainfall rates have been fairly light, and should remain this way thus limiting hydro and areal flooding issues.

Redevelopment of stronger thunderstorms may be possible from Bates County MO to Pettis and perhaps even Cooper Counties.

Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail, and severe winds.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Thunderstorms This Evening through Overnight; Some Severe Storms Possible

- Additional Rain Shower Activity Today, More Possible Monday

- Drizzle to light rain / showers possible through tonight.

Have noted some brief and transient drizzle may be possible

Generally much ado about

There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally.

Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.

Additional light rain possible N/NE Monday

Neither will produce anything of significance, but will linger at least lower-end (<35-40 percent) PoPs over N to NE Missouri through Monday.

- Much cooler, fall-like, temperatures settle in for the work week.

- Highs 60s/70s, lows upper 40s to 50s

Expect highs in the 60s to 70s and lows predominantly in the 50s.

Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.

The HRRR has been adamant of this southern solution since yesterday among its extended runs, while synoptic solutions have tended to be further north.

Other CAM guidance, has tended to favor south as well, such as majority of the 12z [7 AM CDT] HREF members.

Have trended PoPs drier than NBM thusly.

Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.

There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally.

The HRRR has been adamant of this southern solution since yesterday among its extended runs, while synoptic solutions have tended to be further north.

Other CAM guidance, has tended to favor south as well, such as majority of the 12z [7 AM CDT] HREF members.

Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.

There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally.

Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.

Redevelopment of stronger thunderstorms may be possible from Bates County MO to Pettis and perhaps even Cooper Counties.

Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.

Current forecast remains dry through Wednesday, with the next feature that breaks down the mid-level ridge progged to move in Thursday when our next mentionable precipitation chances return to the forecast.

Neither will produce anything of significance, but will linger at least lower-end (<35-40 percent) PoPs over N to NE Missouri through Monday.

Ensemble suites continue to point to 30- 40 percent probabilities for light rainfall, especially through Monday late morning and early afternoon.

Deterministic guidance still depicts a closed mid-level mainly over the upper-Midwest, but some lift may still be possible into the lower Missouri River Valley.

Amongst ensemble members though, there is larger spread in how expansive the lift is associated with the feature over the Midwest, and as a result may be causing higher probabilities over too large of an area.

- Highs 60s/70s, lows upper 40s to 50s

Expect highs in the 60s to 70s and lows predominantly in the 50s.