Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
4 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say storm chances this evening are waning quickly. The HRRR model and most other high-resolution models favor storms staying south; only the broader-scale models were farther north, so forecasters made the forecast drier. Late-week rain depends on the pattern to the east.
- Drizzle to light rain / showers possible through tonight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Have noted some brief and transient drizzle may be possibleNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Generally much ado aboutNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Additional light rain possible N/NE MondayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Neither will produce anything of significance, but will linger at least lower-end (<35-40 percent) PoPs over N to NE Missouri through Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
- Much cooler, fall-like, temperatures settle in for the work week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
- Highs 60s/70s, lows upper 40s to 50sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Expect highs in the 60s to 70s and lows predominantly in the 50s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
The HRRR has been adamant of this southern solution since yesterday among its extended runs, while synoptic solutions have tended to be further north.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Other CAM guidance, has tended to favor south as well, such as majority of the 12z [7 AM CDT] HREF members.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Have trended PoPs drier than NBM thusly.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
If a storm does clip the southern edge of the area, which is unlikely, the main risk would be lightning.
Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
The HRRR has been adamant of this southern solution since yesterday among its extended runs, while synoptic solutions have tended to be further north.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Other CAM guidance, has tended to favor south as well, such as majority of the 12z [7 AM CDT] HREF members.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Redevelopment of stronger thunderstorms may be possible from Bates County MO to Pettis and perhaps even Cooper Counties.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 1:41 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Current forecast remains dry through Wednesday, with the next feature that breaks down the mid-level ridge progged to move in Thursday when our next mentionable precipitation chances return to the forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 1:41 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Neither will produce anything of significance, but will linger at least lower-end (<35-40 percent) PoPs over N to NE Missouri through Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Ensemble suites continue to point to 30- 40 percent probabilities for light rainfall, especially through Monday late morning and early afternoon.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 1:41 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Deterministic guidance still depicts a closed mid-level mainly over the upper-Midwest, but some lift may still be possible into the lower Missouri River Valley.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 1:41 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Amongst ensemble members though, there is larger spread in how expansive the lift is associated with the feature over the Midwest, and as a result may be causing higher probabilities over too large of an area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 1:41 p.m. Sun Sep 20
- Highs 60s/70s, lows upper 40s to 50sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Expect highs in the 60s to 70s and lows predominantly in the 50s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:44 p.m. Sun Sep 20
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 3:08 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21.
How sure forecasters were
The discussion doesn't state an overall confidence. It gives a 30-40 percent chance of measurable rain late Thursday into Friday, and says model disagreement is fairly large for next weekend's temperatures. The outlook calls the chance of widespread hazardous weather low.
maintain cloud cover for most of the morning and afternoon hoursNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
This may also help the development of light rainfall activity,NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
drizzle, or sprinkles across the area especially prior to noonNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
- Fog Possible Monday Morning with Light Rain ActivityNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
temperatures will remain notably cooler throughoutNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
may keep lower-level clouds in play through theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
This will help keep conditions mostly dry through the middle of this week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
This will help keep conditions mostly dry through the middle of this week. Low-level flow will generally be northeasterly to easterly, limiting any notable temperature advection regimes. Therefore, will maintain high temperatures in upper 60s for areas along Hwy. 36 and northward, with lower 70s southward.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Overnight lows will dip into the lower 50s across much of the area, with locations near the Iowa border potentially dropping into the upper 40s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
A weak thermal ridge should push eastward, and provide modest warm air advection that aids temperatures getting back into the mid 70s toward the end of the week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Current ensemble guidance favors western Missouri and eastern Kansas for activity starting late Thursday and continuing into Friday with 30- 40 percent probabilities for measurable rainfall.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
This then expands eastward into Central Missouri through the remainder of the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Some model guidance does attempt to push temperatures back into the 80s by the end of next weekend, but cloud cover and rain shower potential may largely limit that potential, and current spread amongst ensemble guidance is fairly large for temperature forecasts next weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sun Sep 20
Fog is possible Monday morning along with light rain.
- Fog Possible Monday Morning with Light Rain ActivityNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Some model guidance does attempt to push temperatures back into the 80s by the end of next weekend, but cloud cover and rain shower potential may largely limit that potential, and current spread amongst ensemble guidance is fairly large for temperature forecasts next weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Current ensemble guidance favors western Missouri and eastern Kansas for activity starting late Thursday and continuing into Friday with 30- 40 percent probabilities for measurable rainfall.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:53 p.m. Sun Sep 20
drizzle, or sprinkles across the area especially prior to noonNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
- Fog Possible Monday Morning with Light Rain ActivityNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Neither will produce anything of significance, but will linger at least lower-end (<35-40 percent) PoPs over N to NE Missouri through Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:53 p.m. Sun Sep 20
- Fog Possible Monday Morning with Light Rain ActivityNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
- Rain Returns FridayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Current ensemble guidance favors western Missouri and eastern Kansas for activity starting late Thursday and continuing into Friday with 30- 40 percent probabilities for measurable rainfall.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Some model guidance does attempt to push temperatures back into the 80s by the end of next weekend, but cloud cover and rain shower potential may largely limit that potential, and current spread amongst ensemble guidance is fairly large for temperature forecasts next weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:08 a.m. Mon Sep 21
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 1:26 p.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Some light rain chances this afternoon, mainly south of I-70 - Fog and drizzle possible again this evening / tonight and into Tuesday morning. Best chances as you work north of Missouri River. - Fall-like temperatures through the week. - Rain chances begin to return late week, best chances western Missouri into Kansas
Predominantly overcast skies prevailed across the area thus far today, including pockets of lingering fog and drizzle to light rain. By early afternoon, visibilities have improved to greater than 6 miles in most locations and stratus has begun to go more cellular in nature. This is especially so in areas where higher level cloud cover has understandably been non-existent or clearing out. Of casual note, areas where mixing has been more robust, tending to be south of I-70, have noted the potential within CAM soundings for weak instability underneath the inversion to develop which could lead to some very weakly convective light rain / showers. This potential has most recently begun to be seen on KEAX radar along to just on the SGF side of the CWA border, including around and east of Clinton and south of Sedalia. Given that, do expect to see some additional activity south of I-70 where more robust cellular action is noted on visible satellite. Would not do much more than getting the ground wet or ticking off up to a couple or few hundredths of an inch of rain. Deterministic and ensemble synoptic scale guidance have shown little notable changes with recent runs. There remains fair to good agreement on the general evolution of the synoptic pattern through late week. This includes a weakly closed to open mid-level wave drifting eastward across the Northern Plains today and Tuesday, gradually developing into a messy Rex Block-like pattern, and finally a closed low over and off the East Coast by late week into next weekend. And on its heels will be ridging working back into the central CONUS, but looks to struggle to make too much direct progress over the area given the East Coast blockages. All the while, a large surface high centered over the northern Great Lakes into southern Ontario. What does that all mean for the immediate area? Temperature wise, it results in pretty persistent fall-like temperatures as NE to E surface/near-surface flow prevails throughout the week. This results in highs in the 60s/70s and lows generally in the upper 40s to 50s. Coolest lows tending to be mid-week when cloud cover should be least prevalent. Cloud cover and precipitation wise, yields lingering periods of stratus and drizzle to light rain chances through Tuesday with best chances over northern areas closer to the passing mid- level wave. Followed by a dry mid-week as mid-level height rises, the aforementioned ridging, slides into the central CONUS. Late week is where the most uncertainty resides as the degree and position of the blocking pattern over the East Coast will dictate how far east precipitation chances creep and how quickly the area may see warming temperatures. For now, not much change from previous forecast cycle with the prevailing consensus keeping the mid-level ridge axis just to the west of the area and embedded shortwaves rounding the ridge into Nebraska/Iowa. Within the gridded forecast, this yields 20 to 40 percent PoPs beginning to creep into NW/W Missouri and NE Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening and creeping eastward through Friday. Takeaway being chances increase as you work toward W/NW Missouri and into Kansas. Similar may occur into the weekend with deterministic guidance showing additional shortwaves within the flow, possibly attempting to flatten the ridge some. Understandably, aside from PoPs, this also results in the most uncertainty in temperatures with NBM spreads increasing to the 8 to 12 deg F range Saturday. Regardless of all of the above, hope most are able to enjoy a stretch of cooler temperatures after the stretch of late summer/early fall heat.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 6:33 p.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Fog and drizzle possible again this evening / tonight and into Tuesday morning. Best chances as you work north of Missouri River. - Fall-like temperatures through the week. - Rain chances begin to return late week, best chances western Missouri into Kansas
Predominantly overcast skies prevailed across the area thus far today, including pockets of lingering fog and drizzle to light rain. By early afternoon, visibilities have improved to greater than 6 miles in most locations and stratus has begun to go more cellular in nature. This is especially so in areas where higher level cloud cover has understandably been non-existent or clearing out. Of casual note, areas where mixing has been more robust, tending to be south of I-70, have noted the potential within CAM soundings for weak instability underneath the inversion to develop which could lead to some very weakly convective light rain / showers. This potential has most recently begun to be seen on KEAX radar along to just on the SGF side of the CWA border, including around and east of Clinton and south of Sedalia. Given that, do expect to see some additional activity south of I-70 where more robust cellular action is noted on visible satellite. Would not do much more than getting the ground wet or ticking off up to a couple or few hundredths of an inch of rain. Deterministic and ensemble synoptic scale guidance have shown little notable changes with recent runs. There remains fair to good agreement on the general evolution of the synoptic pattern through late week. This includes a weakly closed to open mid-level wave drifting eastward across the Northern Plains today and Tuesday, gradually developing into a messy Rex Block-like pattern, and finally a closed low over and off the East Coast by late week into next weekend. And on its heels will be ridging working back into the central CONUS, but looks to struggle to make too much direct progress over the area given the East Coast blockages. All the while, a large surface high centered over the northern Great Lakes into southern Ontario. What does that all mean for the immediate area? Temperature wise, it results in pretty persistent fall-like temperatures as NE to E surface/near-surface flow prevails throughout the week. This results in highs in the 60s/70s and lows generally in the upper 40s to 50s. Coolest lows tending to be mid-week when cloud cover should be least prevalent. Cloud cover and precipitation wise, yields lingering periods of stratus and drizzle to light rain chances through Tuesday with best chances over northern areas closer to the passing mid- level wave. Followed by a dry mid-week as mid-level height rises, the aforementioned ridging, slides into the central CONUS. Late week is where the most uncertainty resides as the degree and position of the blocking pattern over the East Coast will dictate how far east precipitation chances creep and how quickly the area may see warming temperatures. For now, not much change from previous forecast cycle with the prevailing consensus keeping the mid-level ridge axis just to the west of the area and embedded shortwaves rounding the ridge into Nebraska/Iowa. Within the gridded forecast, this yields 20 to 40 percent PoPs beginning to creep into NW/W Missouri and NE Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening and creeping eastward through Friday. Takeaway being chances increase as you work toward W/NW Missouri and into Kansas. Similar may occur into the weekend with deterministic guidance showing additional shortwaves within the flow, possibly attempting to flatten the ridge some. Understandably, aside from PoPs, this also results in the most uncertainty in temperatures with NBM spreads increasing to the 8 to 12 deg F range Saturday. Regardless of all of the above, hope most are able to enjoy a stretch of cooler temperatures after the stretch of late summer/early fall heat.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.