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Archive: Tuesday, September 22, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

4 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 6:33 p.m. Mon Sep 21, current when the day began

The NWS discussion issued 6:33 p.m. Mon Sep 21

The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.

Key messages

- Fog and drizzle possible again this evening / tonight and into
  Tuesday morning. Best chances as you work north of Missouri
  River.

- Fall-like temperatures through the week.

- Rain chances begin to return late week, best chances western
  Missouri into Kansas

Discussion

Predominantly overcast skies prevailed across the area thus far
today, including pockets of lingering fog and drizzle to light rain.
By early afternoon, visibilities have improved to greater than 6
miles in most locations and stratus has begun to go more cellular in
nature. This is especially so in areas where higher level cloud
cover has understandably been non-existent or clearing out. Of
casual note, areas where mixing has been more robust, tending to be
south of I-70, have noted the potential within CAM soundings for
weak instability underneath the inversion to develop which could
lead to some very weakly convective light rain / showers. This
potential has most recently begun to be seen on KEAX radar along to
just on the SGF side of the CWA border, including around and east of
Clinton and south of Sedalia. Given that, do expect to see some
additional activity south of I-70 where more robust cellular action
is noted on visible satellite. Would not do much more than getting
the ground wet or ticking off up to a couple or few hundredths of an
inch of rain.

Deterministic and ensemble synoptic scale guidance have shown little
notable changes with recent runs. There remains fair to good
agreement on the general evolution of the synoptic pattern through
late week. This includes a weakly closed to open mid-level wave
drifting eastward across the Northern Plains today and Tuesday,
gradually developing into a messy Rex Block-like pattern, and
finally a closed low over and off the East Coast by late week into
next weekend. And on its heels will be ridging working back into the
central CONUS, but looks to struggle to make too much direct
progress over the area given the East Coast blockages. All the
while, a large surface high centered over the northern Great Lakes
into southern Ontario.

What does that all mean for the immediate area? Temperature wise, it
results in pretty persistent fall-like temperatures as NE to E
surface/near-surface flow prevails throughout the week. This results
in highs in the 60s/70s and lows generally in the upper 40s to 50s.
Coolest lows tending to be mid-week when cloud cover should be least
prevalent. Cloud cover and precipitation wise, yields lingering
periods of stratus and drizzle to light rain chances through Tuesday
with best chances over northern areas closer to the passing mid-
level wave. Followed by a dry mid-week as mid-level height rises,
the aforementioned ridging, slides into the central CONUS. Late week
is where the most uncertainty resides as the degree and position of
the blocking pattern over the East Coast will dictate how far east
precipitation chances creep and how quickly the area may see warming
temperatures. For now, not much change from previous forecast cycle
with the prevailing consensus keeping the mid-level ridge axis just
to the west of the area and embedded shortwaves rounding the ridge
into Nebraska/Iowa. Within the gridded forecast, this yields 20 to
40 percent PoPs beginning to creep into NW/W Missouri and NE Kansas
Thursday afternoon and evening and creeping eastward through Friday.
Takeaway being chances increase as you work toward W/NW Missouri and
into Kansas. Similar may occur into the weekend with deterministic
guidance showing additional shortwaves within the flow, possibly
attempting to flatten the ridge some. Understandably, aside from
PoPs, this also results in the most uncertainty in temperatures with
NBM spreads increasing to the 8 to 12 deg F range Saturday.

Regardless of all of the above, hope most are able to enjoy a
stretch of cooler temperatures after the stretch of late
summer/early fall heat.

Eax watches/warnings/advisories

MO...None.
KS...None.

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 3:59 a.m. discussion

The NWS discussion issued 3:59 a.m. Tue Sep 22

The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.

Key messages

- Seasonable Temperatures This Week

- Fog Possible Tuesday Morning, Cloud Conditions Slowly Clear Up
  Through Afternoon

- Precipitation Returns to the Forecast Late Thursday, Through
  Weekend

Short term

Broad surface anticyclone currently sits over the northwestern
Great Lakes Region but its strengthening has been stalled by an H5
short-wave trough that sits over the upper Mississippi River Valley
early this morning. This setup has resulted in an inversion around
800mb for most of the lower Missouri River Valley, with plenty of
moisture still trapped underneath it. With weak easterly surface
winds, fog has been developing across the area, along with scattered
reports of drizzle, and overall a thick stratus deck just a few
hundred feet above the surface. This is expected to last through
most of the morning and even early afternoon across the area. A mid-
level ridge is developing over the Intermountain West this morning
and will begin to shift eastward, which will being to provide H5
height rises by late this afternoon across the forecast area. This
will help to promote subsidence and also allow the surface
anticyclone north of the area to  and expand southward,
eventually clearing out the low stratiform cloud deck and also
bringing an end to any light drizzle or sprinkle activity. Mid to
upper-level flow will remain northwesterly, preventing any WAA
regime from developing and that will be the case through the middle
of this weak. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s
north of Hwy. 36, with areas southward hitting the lower 70s for the
next couple of days. As the ridge axis moves eastward across the
area on Wednesday, we will start to see a modest a increase in
temperatures back into the mid 70s across by the middle of the weak,
especially with strong WAA at 850mb largely driving the mid-level
height rises and pushing this eastward.  With no notable forcing
mechanisms through Wednesday evening, the forecast will remain dry
through at least Wednesday and into early Thursday morning.

Long term

Towards the end of the work week, deterministic guidance shows
falling 500mb heights just to our west and shortwaves coming off of
the Rockies from a trough over the Western Canadian coast into the
Pacific NW. A high at the surface over the northern Great Lakes and
into southern Ontario will result in southeasterly flow at the
surface bringing moisture from the Gulf into eastern KS. With
synoptic scale lift and moisture available at the surface we could
see some rain in our area Thursday night into Friday but
deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps most of the rain off to
our west until Friday morning with about a 15-30% chance of rain
Thursday night in NW MO gradually increasing to a 50-60% chance
Friday morning for NW MO and 30-50% chance of rain for the rest of
the CWA. It is unlikely that we'll see any thunderstorms with this
first round of showers as instability and shear looks to be pretty
weak.

The greater chance for rain moves into our area this weekend,
especially Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance shows 500mb heights
continuing to fall as we move into more zonal flow and the closed
low off the east coast starts to lift further north. The surface
high over the Great Lakes continues to bring southerly flow and
moisture from the Gulf into our area supporting rain chances through
the weekend. We could hear some rumbles of thunder with the rain on
Saturday night with guidance showing weak instability on the western
edge of our CWA but otherwise we shouldn't see any severe weather as
deterministic guidance keeps the greatest instability outside of the
CWA. We could potentially see some warmer temperatures this weekend
and the beginning of next week with a 70-80% chance of highs above
85, especially south of I-70.

Eax watches/warnings/advisories

MO...None.
KS...None.

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 12:23 p.m. discussion

Morning fog and low clouds slowly clear during the afternoon; dry through early Thursday, then rain chances return Thursday night and through the weekend.

From the NWS discussion issued 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22.

The forecast

  • Tuesday morning into afternoon: Fog, scattered drizzle and very low clouds were expected through most of the morning and into early afternoon. Clouds slowly clear during the afternoon, eventually ending the drizzle.
  • Next couple of days (North of Hwy. 36; south of Hwy. 36): Highs in the mid to upper 60s north of Hwy. 36, and in the lower 70s south of it.
  • Wednesday through early Thursday morning: A modest warm-up, with highs back into the mid 70s by the middle of the week. Dry through at least Wednesday and into early Thursday morning.
  • Thursday night into Friday morning (Northwest Missouri; rest of the area): Northwest Missouri has a 15-30% chance of rain Thursday night, rising to 50-60% Friday morning. The rest of the area has a 30-50% chance Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely.
  • This weekend (whole area; thunder on the western edge): A greater chance of rain, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Some rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday night on the western edge of the area, but severe weather is not expected.
  • This weekend and the beginning of next week (whole area, especially south of I-70): It could turn warmer, with a 70-80% chance of highs above 85, especially south of I-70.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters give rain chances as percentages (15-30% up to 50-60%) and say thunderstorms are unlikely with the first round of showers. They say warmer weather this weekend could potentially happen, with a 70-80% chance of highs above 85.

Read the NWS wording
With weak easterly surface winds, fog has been developing across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
the area, along with scattered reports of drizzle, and overall
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
This is expected to last through most of the morning and even
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
early afternoon across the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
- Fog Possible Tuesday Morning, Cloud Conditions Slowly Clear Up Through Afternoon
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
eventually clearing out the low stratiform cloud deck and also
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
bringing an end to any light drizzle or sprinkle activity
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
upper 60s north of Hwy. 36, with areas southward hitting the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
lower 70s for the next couple of days
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
eastward across the area on Wednesday, we will start to see a
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
modest a increase in temperatures back into the mid 70s across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
evening, the forecast will remain dry through at least Wednesday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
and into early Thursday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
15-30% chance of rain Thursday night in NW
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
50-60% chance Friday morning for NW
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
30-50% chance of rain for the rest of the CWA
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
unlikely that we'll see any thunderstorms with this first round
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
The greater chance for rain moves into our area this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
We could hear some rumbles of thunder with the rain on Saturday night with guidance showing weak instability on the western edge of our CWA but otherwise we shouldn't see any severe weather as deterministic guidance keeps the greatest instability outside of the CWA.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
We could potentially see some warmer temperatures this weekend and the beginning of next week with a 70-80% chance of highs above 85, especially south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22

What to watch

Fog

Tuesday morning

Forecasters flagged possible fog Tuesday morning, with clouds slowly clearing through the afternoon. The chance of widespread hazardous weather through Monday is low.

Read the NWS wording
- Fog Possible Tuesday Morning, Cloud Conditions Slowly Clear Up Through Afternoon
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Sep 22

Why the forecast might change

  • Computer models keep most of the rain west of the area until Friday morning, so Thursday night may stay mostly dry; northwest Missouri has the better early chance. (whole area; northwest Missouri)
  • Severe weather isn't expected this weekend because the models keep the strongest storm fuel outside the area; only some thunder on the western edge Saturday night. (western edge; whole area)
Read the NWS wording
guidance keeps most of the rain off to our west until Friday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
15-30% chance of rain Thursday night in NW
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
We could hear some rumbles of thunder with the rain on Saturday night with guidance showing weak instability on the western edge of our CWA but otherwise we shouldn't see any severe weather as deterministic guidance keeps the greatest instability outside of the CWA.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • This update carried over the early-morning text unchanged, so the description of Tuesday's fog and clouds was written before dawn.
  • The discussion says highs stay in the 60s and lower 70s for the next couple of days, but also says highs rise into the mid 70s on Wednesday, so Wednesday's temperatures are a bit unclear.
Read the NWS wording
.SHORT TERM... [carried over unchanged]
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
lower 70s for the next couple of days
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
modest a increase in temperatures back into the mid 70s across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:52 p.m. discussion

Mild, seasonable fall week: clouds and spotty drizzle today, clearing Wednesday, 30-50% shower chances Friday through the weekend, then warming to the low-to-mid 80s early next week.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22.

The forecast

  • This afternoon (Tuesday): Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Mostly cloudy with a few peeks of sun. Pockets of drizzle or light rain continue through the afternoon, slowly moving east.
  • Wednesday through Thursday: Skies clear during the day Wednesday. Highs in the low-to-mid 70s and comfortable humidity make for a pleasant fall day. This pattern lasts through the end of the week.
  • Through Thursday (North and west of the area): Showers are expected to stay north and west of the area through Thursday.
  • Friday (whole area, northwest to southeast): Showers move into the area during Friday, spreading from northwest to southeast. Chance of rain is 30-50%.
  • This weekend: More rounds of showers, with a 30-50% chance. Thunder may be hard to come by.
  • Early next week: Warmer weather is likely to return, with temperatures climbing back into the low-to-mid 80s.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say computer models are in fairly good agreement on the warm-up early next week. The latest hazardous weather outlook rates the chance of widespread hazardous weather as low.

Read the NWS wording
will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the area with
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
mostly cloudy skies and a few peeks of sun through the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
induce some pockets of drizzle/light rain.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
through the afternoon, gradually shifting east with time.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
With the shortwave out of the area, drier mid-level air will advect into the area and skies will be able to clear through the day tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Temperatures will remain in the low-to-mid 70s, with dew points in the upper 50s, creating a pleasant Fall day.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
This pattern remains through the end of the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Several shortwaves are expected to move through the flow inducing showers, however, precipitation should remain to the north and west of the area through Thursday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
On Friday, a more vigorous shortwave is progged to move through the flow and shift the ridge to the east, allowing showers to move into the area from northwest to southeast through the day on Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
- Precipitation chances (30-50%) return to the forecast Friday through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Several more impulses bring shower chances (30-50%) to the area through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Instability looks to be minimal with these systems, so even as much as thunder may be hard to come by.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Several more impulses bring shower chances (30-50%) to the area through the weekend. Instability looks to be minimal with these systems, so even as much as thunder may be hard to come by. Long range deterministic and ensemble models are in fairly good agreement for mid-level ridging to build back into the Central CONUS by early next week. This would likely allow temperatures to climb back into the low-to-mid 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
This would likely allow temperatures to climb back into the low-to-mid 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Long range deterministic and ensemble models are in fairly good agreement for mid-level ridging to build back into the Central CONUS by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Sep 22

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • The weekend showers have little energy for storms, so thunder may be hard to come by.
Read the NWS wording
Instability looks to be minimal with these systems, so even as much as thunder may be hard to come by.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22

What changed from the discussion before

  • Rain now looks to hold off until Friday. Showers should stay north and west of the area through Thursday. Earlier, rain was expected to start late Thursday, with a 15-30% chance Thursday night in northwest Missouri. (whole area; earlier wording named northwest Missouri for Thursday night)
  • Friday's rain chance is now 30-50% across the area. Earlier it was 50-60% Friday morning for northwest Missouri and 30-50% for the rest of the area. (whole area; earlier wording named northwest Missouri)
  • Weekend thunder now looks less likely. Earlier, some rumbles of thunder were possible Saturday night on the western edge of the area. (whole area; earlier wording named the western edge of the area)
  • Early next week now calls for highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Earlier there was a 70-80% chance of highs above 85, especially south of I-70. (whole area; earlier wording singled out south of I-70)
  • Today's clouds and drizzle are lasting longer than expected. Clearing is now expected Wednesday instead of Tuesday afternoon.
Read the NWS wording
Several shortwaves are expected to move through the flow inducing showers, however, precipitation should remain to the north and west of the area through Thursday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
On Friday, a more vigorous shortwave is progged to move through the flow and shift the ridge to the east, allowing showers to move into the area from northwest to southeast through the day on Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
- Precipitation Returns to the Forecast Late Thursday, Through Weekend
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Sep 22
morning with about a 15-30% chance of rain Thursday night in NW
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
- Precipitation chances (30-50%) return to the forecast Friday through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
MO gradually increasing to a 50-60% chance Friday morning for NW
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
MO and 30-50% chance of rain for the rest of the CWA.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
Instability looks to be minimal with these systems, so even as much as thunder may be hard to come by.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
We could hear some rumbles of thunder with the rain on Saturday night with guidance showing weak instability on the western edge of our CWA but otherwise we shouldn't see any severe weather as deterministic guidance keeps the greatest instability outside of the CWA.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
This would likely allow temperatures to climb back into the low-to-mid 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
We could potentially see some warmer temperatures this weekend and the beginning of next week with a 70-80% chance of highs above 85, especially south of I-70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:23 p.m. Tue Sep 22
through the afternoon, gradually shifting east with time.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
With the shortwave out of the area, drier mid-level air will advect into the area and skies will be able to clear through the day tomorrow.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22
- Fog Possible Tuesday Morning, Cloud Conditions Slowly Clear Up Through Afternoon
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Sep 22

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The latest hazardous weather outlook was issued earlier in the day and still says rain returns late Thursday. The newer discussion keeps showers north and west of the area through Thursday.
Read the NWS wording
- Precipitation Returns to the Forecast Late Thursday, Through Weekend
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Sep 22
Several shortwaves are expected to move through the flow inducing showers, however, precipitation should remain to the north and west of the area through Thursday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:52 p.m. Tue Sep 22

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.