Showers from western KS are continuing to develop as we start off our rainy weekend.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

storms should remain sub-severe

low-level clouds and weak low-level lapse rates will limit instability

we could see rain accumulations this weekend of 0.5 inches along I-70 and increasing amounts of up to 1.25 inches for NW MO

Deterministic guidance has showers clearing out Sunday afternoon

showers could potentially stick around for a little while longer

As long as the ridge can progress east, as models currently suggest, we should dry out briefly Monday before we see the potential for more rain in the middle of next week.

The systems then continues to progress east, bringing strong moisture transport into our area with strong, moist southerly flow from the Gulf at the surface and the tropical system brings moisture transport aloft, making for a very moist atmospheric profile.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

how quickly showers clear out will depend on how the blocking pattern develops

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

storms should remain sub-severe

- Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend with the chance (20-30%) for isolated, non-severe thunderstorms Saturday along the KS/MO border

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

An upper-level ridge tries to build back into our area Sunday but it will have to fight the Nor'easter

showers could potentially stick around for a little while longer

Models show these two low pressure systems coming together over the SW US sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

we could see rain accumulations this weekend of 0.5 inches along I-70 and increasing amounts of up to 1.25 inches for NW MO

Highest coverage is expected along and north of Interstate 70 due to greater moisture content across eastern KS and northern.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

storms should remain sub-severe

Main hazards would be localized heavy downpours, isolated minor flooding, and possibly some gusty winds.

Deterministic guidance has showers clearing out Sunday afternoon

Rainy and gloomy conditions will persist throughout Friday night, Saturday, and into Sunday with rain looking to vacate by midday Sunday for most of the area.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

Timing will be dependent on when exactly our ongoing patterns move out, but the next disturbance is expected to move in some time Monday night through Wednesday.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend with the chance (20-30%) for isolated, non-severe thunderstorms Saturday along the KS/MO border

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

Showers from western KS are continuing to develop as we start off our rainy weekend.

- Potential for non-severe isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

- Showers make their way into the area, sticking around for the weekend with accumulations around 0.5-1.25 inches.

this weekend of 0.5 inches along I-70 and increasing amounts of up

to 1.25 inches for NW MO.

Deterministic guidance has showers

clearing out Sunday afternoon but how quickly showers clear out will

depend on how the blocking pattern develops.

As a result, showers could potentially stick around for a little while longer.

As long as the ridge can progress east, as models currently suggest, we should dry out briefly Monday before we see the potential for more rain in the middle of next week.

The systems then continues to progress east, bringing strong moisture transport into our area with strong, moist southerly flow from the Gulf at the surface and the tropical system brings moisture transport aloft, making for a very moist atmospheric profile.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

how quickly showers clear out will depend on how the blocking pattern develops.

- Potential for non-severe isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

An upper-level ridge tries to build back into our area Sunday but it will have to fight the Nor'easter that looks to set up shop over the North Atlantic Coast.

As a result, showers could potentially stick around for a little while longer.

As long as the ridge can progress east, as models currently suggest, we should dry out briefly Monday before we see the potential for more rain in the middle of next week.

- Potential for non-severe isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

- Showers expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Activity remaining nonsevere, with a chance of some rumbles of thunder.

The presence of marginal MUCAPE (~100-200 J/kg) suggests there is low-end potential for some rumbles of thunder through the remainder of the afternoon.

However, these probabilities remain on the lower end (~10-15%).

Greater intrusion of dry air in the low-levels looks to decrease precipitation chances through this evening, before returning overnight as shortwave and associated intensifying LLJ traverse to the west/northwest of the forecast area.

The greatest potential for precipitation overnight resides across northwestern MO and far northeastern KS (70-90%), with isolated/scattered showers further towards central MO.

Similar to today, severe chances remain on the lower end with poor environmental parameters for any robust activity.

As the shortwave retreats towards the north/northeast with a diminishing LLJ, precipitation chances will lower across the forecast area through Saturday.

This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow.

Severe chances continue to remain low with meager instability and shear effectively capped off during this timeframe, but lightning remains a risk with these storms (15-30%) with marginally better MUCAPE than previous days.

rain chances to linger until at least Sunday afternoon.

Brief dry period to close out the weekend, before wet pattern continues.

While the upper-level trough continues to lift off towards the north, and the closed low over the East Coast persists, ridging will build back over the central CONUS and serve to dry conditions out through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

The influence of an energetic trough over the West Coast will help to break down the ridge going into midweek, and keep the remainder of the forecast wetter as the jet interacts with a remnant tropical system near southern California.

This interaction with the remnant tropical system will further enhance atmospheric moisture content, leading to impressive PWAT values for this time of year.

With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the duration of the forecast period, with high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s during much of the period.

The northward and eastward progression of the ridge (and ultimate evolution of the blocking pattern) will determine temperature trends for Monday onward, with appreciable spread in the 25th-75th percentile temperatures noted in probabilistic guidance.

With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week.

This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow.

Severe chances continue to remain low with meager instability and shear effectively capped off during this timeframe, but lightning remains a risk with these storms (15-30%) with marginally better MUCAPE than previous days.

The northward and eastward progression of the ridge (and ultimate evolution of the blocking pattern) will determine temperature trends for Monday onward, with appreciable spread in the 25th-75th percentile temperatures noted in probabilistic guidance.

With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

this weekend of 0.5 inches along I-70 and increasing amounts of up

to 1.25 inches for NW MO.

transport could support locally heavy rainfall but storms should

- Brief lull in activity, before showers/storms return tomorrow morning and again tomorrow overnight/Sunday morning.

As the shortwave retreats towards the north/northeast with a diminishing LLJ, precipitation chances will lower across the forecast area through Saturday.

This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow.

rain chances to linger until at least Sunday afternoon.

Brief dry period to close out the weekend, before wet pattern continues.