- Showers expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Activity remaining nonsevere, with a chance of some rumbles of thunder.

The presence of marginal MUCAPE (~100-200 J/kg) suggests there is low-end potential for some rumbles of thunder through the remainder of the afternoon.

However, these probabilities remain on the lower end (~10-15%).

Greater intrusion of dry air in the low-levels looks to decrease precipitation chances through this evening, before returning overnight as shortwave and associated intensifying LLJ traverse to the west/northwest of the forecast area.

The greatest potential for precipitation overnight resides across northwestern MO and far northeastern KS (70-90%), with isolated/scattered showers further towards central MO.

Similar to today, severe chances remain on the lower end with poor environmental parameters for any robust activity.

As the shortwave retreats towards the north/northeast with a diminishing LLJ, precipitation chances will lower across the forecast area through Saturday.

This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow.

Severe chances continue to remain low with meager instability and shear effectively capped off during this timeframe, but lightning remains a risk with these storms (15-30%) with marginally better MUCAPE than previous days.

rain chances to linger until at least Sunday afternoon.

Brief dry period to close out the weekend, before wet pattern continues.

While the upper-level trough continues to lift off towards the north, and the closed low over the East Coast persists, ridging will build back over the central CONUS and serve to dry conditions out through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

The influence of an energetic trough over the West Coast will help to break down the ridge going into midweek, and keep the remainder of the forecast wetter as the jet interacts with a remnant tropical system near southern California.

This interaction with the remnant tropical system will further enhance atmospheric moisture content, leading to impressive PWAT values for this time of year.

With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the duration of the forecast period, with high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s during much of the period.

The northward and eastward progression of the ridge (and ultimate evolution of the blocking pattern) will determine temperature trends for Monday onward, with appreciable spread in the 25th-75th percentile temperatures noted in probabilistic guidance.

With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week.

This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow.

Severe chances continue to remain low with meager instability and shear effectively capped off during this timeframe, but lightning remains a risk with these storms (15-30%) with marginally better MUCAPE than previous days.

The northward and eastward progression of the ridge (and ultimate evolution of the blocking pattern) will determine temperature trends for Monday onward, with appreciable spread in the 25th-75th percentile temperatures noted in probabilistic guidance.

With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week.

As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

this weekend of 0.5 inches along I-70 and increasing amounts of up

to 1.25 inches for NW MO.

transport could support locally heavy rainfall but storms should

- Brief lull in activity, before showers/storms return tomorrow morning and again tomorrow overnight/Sunday morning.

As the shortwave retreats towards the north/northeast with a diminishing LLJ, precipitation chances will lower across the forecast area through Saturday.

This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow.

rain chances to linger until at least Sunday afternoon.

Brief dry period to close out the weekend, before wet pattern continues.

- Showers continue on and off throughout the day Saturday, increasing in coverage by tonight into early Sunday morning.

- 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across the area but they should be non-severe.

Models have been consistent run-to-run with the ridge moving back into MO Sunday afternoon and the 25th-75th ensemble spread for 500mb heights is minimal so there is increasing confidence rain will start to move out Sunday afternoon and we should have a dry start to the work week.

- Dry out briefly Monday with slightly warmer temperatures before rain chances return for the middle of next week.

With the ridge moving back in Monday high temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 70s.

This system would bring a large influx of moisture to the area, resulting in anomalously high PWAT values for this time of year.

However, there is still uncertainty whether the tropical system will cross the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, which would result in a slightly drier setup for next week so we will continue to watch how this system progresses.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

- Showers make their way into the area, sticking around for the weekend with accumulations around 0.5-1.25 inches.

- Dry out briefly Monday with slightly warmer temperatures before rain chances return for the middle of next week.

With such high PWAT values we will need to monitor the potential for flooding next week.

However, there is still uncertainty whether the tropical system will cross the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, which would result in a slightly drier setup for next week so we will continue to watch how this system progresses.

With the ridge moving back in Monday high temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 70s.

The northward and eastward progression of the ridge (and ultimate evolution of the blocking pattern) will determine temperature trends for Monday onward, with appreciable spread in the 25th-75th percentile temperatures noted in probabilistic guidance.

However, there is still uncertainty whether the tropical system will cross the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, which would result in a slightly drier setup for next week so we will continue to watch how this system progresses.

showers and weak thunderstorm activity may end up being more prevalent than initially thought across portions of far eastern Kansas and into western/northwest Missouri

areas roughly east of US-65 are even enjoying some sunshine

Nothing of significance aside from a rumble of thunder possible and brief heavy rain.

should again blossom at least scattered shower/thundershower activity into the area

chances overnight tend to be best south of Highway 36

- Showers and occasional general thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday morning.

drying conditions out through the day

- Increasing confidence in a period of wet conditions from Tuesday through at least Friday.

For the immediate area, this potential tends to reside at Days 4/5 (Tuesday/Wednesday) and beyond.

Lastly, the current best potential tends to reside over the NW half of the CWA or so, especially as you consider those areas have the most saturated soils as well (via NASA SPoRT).

For added confidence in the potential, GFS/Euro ensembles (as well as their AI versions) highlight and expansive/broad area of 2-4+ inch QPF through mid-late week, which is impressive when you consider the washed out nature of ensemble QPF.

The potential is further highlighted by deterministic solutions, including the 12z [7 AM CDT] GFS, depicting PWats climbing toward and above 2 inches (highly anomalous this time of the year) and swaths/pockets 6-8+ inches QPF.

At this point in time, there is high confidence in the broad scale pattern evolution through at least mid-week, if not the entire work-week.

But given the time horizon, there is a good degree of uncertainty in the finer details, such as the exact track of the mid-level cut-off low, its associated surface low, and frontal positions so will stress that locations of peak amounts remain uncertain.

Rounds of heavy rain may yield an increasing river and areal flooding threat through the week.

After an expansive (geographically) coordination call with WPC today, broad Slight Risks exist on Days 4/5 for the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook product, with likely upgrades as finer details come into better focus.

Lastly, the current best potential tends to reside over the NW half of the CWA or so, especially as you consider those areas have the most saturated soils as well (via NASA SPoRT).

But given the time horizon, there is a good degree of uncertainty in the finer details, such as the exact track of the mid-level cut-off low, its associated surface low, and frontal positions so will stress that locations of peak amounts remain uncertain.

After an expansive (geographically) coordination call with WPC today, broad Slight Risks exist on Days 4/5 for the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook product, with likely upgrades as finer details come into better focus.

- Increasing confidence in a period of wet conditions from Tuesday through at least Friday.

Rounds of heavy rain may yield an increasing river and areal flooding threat through the week.

With such high PWAT values we will need to monitor the potential for flooding next week.

showers and weak thunderstorm activity may end up being more prevalent than initially thought across portions of far eastern Kansas and into western/northwest Missouri

- Showers continue on and off throughout the day Saturday, increasing in coverage by tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Dry out briefly Monday with slightly warmer temperatures before rain chances return for the middle of next week.

With the ridge moving back in Monday high temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 70s.