showers and weak thunderstorm activity may end up being more prevalent than initially thought across portions of far eastern Kansas and into western/northwest Missouri

areas roughly east of US-65 are even enjoying some sunshine

Nothing of significance aside from a rumble of thunder possible and brief heavy rain.

should again blossom at least scattered shower/thundershower activity into the area

chances overnight tend to be best south of Highway 36

- Showers and occasional general thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday morning.

drying conditions out through the day

- Increasing confidence in a period of wet conditions from Tuesday through at least Friday.

For the immediate area, this potential tends to reside at Days 4/5 (Tuesday/Wednesday) and beyond.

Lastly, the current best potential tends to reside over the NW half of the CWA or so, especially as you consider those areas have the most saturated soils as well (via NASA SPoRT).

For added confidence in the potential, GFS/Euro ensembles (as well as their AI versions) highlight and expansive/broad area of 2-4+ inch QPF through mid-late week, which is impressive when you consider the washed out nature of ensemble QPF.

The potential is further highlighted by deterministic solutions, including the 12z [7 AM CDT] GFS, depicting PWats climbing toward and above 2 inches (highly anomalous this time of the year) and swaths/pockets 6-8+ inches QPF.

At this point in time, there is high confidence in the broad scale pattern evolution through at least mid-week, if not the entire work-week.

But given the time horizon, there is a good degree of uncertainty in the finer details, such as the exact track of the mid-level cut-off low, its associated surface low, and frontal positions so will stress that locations of peak amounts remain uncertain.

Rounds of heavy rain may yield an increasing river and areal flooding threat through the week.

After an expansive (geographically) coordination call with WPC today, broad Slight Risks exist on Days 4/5 for the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook product, with likely upgrades as finer details come into better focus.

Lastly, the current best potential tends to reside over the NW half of the CWA or so, especially as you consider those areas have the most saturated soils as well (via NASA SPoRT).

But given the time horizon, there is a good degree of uncertainty in the finer details, such as the exact track of the mid-level cut-off low, its associated surface low, and frontal positions so will stress that locations of peak amounts remain uncertain.

After an expansive (geographically) coordination call with WPC today, broad Slight Risks exist on Days 4/5 for the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook product, with likely upgrades as finer details come into better focus.

- Increasing confidence in a period of wet conditions from Tuesday through at least Friday.

Rounds of heavy rain may yield an increasing river and areal flooding threat through the week.

With such high PWAT values we will need to monitor the potential for flooding next week.

showers and weak thunderstorm activity may end up being more prevalent than initially thought across portions of far eastern Kansas and into western/northwest Missouri

- Showers continue on and off throughout the day Saturday, increasing in coverage by tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Dry out briefly Monday with slightly warmer temperatures before rain chances return for the middle of next week.

With the ridge moving back in Monday high temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 70s.

- Isolated to scattered showers again today, mainly for areas south/east of I-35.

A few thunderstorms are possible as well, but severe weather is not expected.

shear remains weak so

severe weather is not anticipated

finally start to wind down by 03Z [10 PM CDT] to 06Z [1 AM CDT] Monday, leading to dry

conditions for Monday into Tuesday.

Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected in the region from Tuesday night through Thursday.

This moisture is will be the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Polo.

With all that said, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty on where the heaviest rains will actually setup.

Ensemble guidance shows roughly a 10-20% chance for at least four inches of rain for the run ending at 7PM Friday.

This combination of rich lower-to-mid-level moisture and upper-level moisture will lead to very anomalous precipitable water values. In fact, these values are 3+ standard deviations above normal for this time of year, above the 99.5 percentile for a large portion of the area, and at the max values on the NAEFS percentiles and GEFS M-climate. Ensemble guidance shows roughly a 10-20% chance for at least four inches of rain for the run ending at 7PM Friday. This jumps to 20-30%+ for total rain of at least 3 inches through the same time frame.

This jumps to 20-30%+ for total rain of at least 3 inches through the same time frame.

- The potential for heavy rain and flooding for the middle of the week is increasing.

- The potential for heavy rain and flooding for the middle of the week is increasing.

Focus then turns to the potential for widespread heavy rainfall and flooding for the middle to later portions of the work week, Tuesday night through mainly Thursday.

Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected in the region from Tuesday night through Thursday.

That will largely depend on where the strongest forcing sets up as the shortwave ejects into the Plains Wednesday into Thursday as the system takes on distinctive mid-lattitude cyclone characteristics, with a notable deformation area, a warm frontal region extending eastward, and cold front extending southward.

Each of these areas will provide a focus for heavy rainfall and placement of these features will be key to defining the areas with the greatest flooding potential.

- Isolated to scattered showers again today, mainly for areas south/east of I-35.

finally start to wind down by 03Z [10 PM CDT] to 06Z [1 AM CDT] Monday, leading to dry

- Showers and occasional general thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday morning.

mid-level height rises slide in Sunday, drying conditions out

With all that said, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty on where the heaviest rains will actually setup.

Lastly, the current best potential tends to reside over the NW half of the CWA or so, especially as you consider those areas have the most saturated soils as well (via NASA SPoRT).

After an expansive (geographically) coordination call with WPC today, broad Slight Risks exist on Days 4/5 for the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook product, with likely upgrades as finer details come into better focus.