Some patchy fog may be able to develop across

northern Missouri during the early morning hours on Monday where

winds are light and cloud cover is minimized.

- Warm and dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday.

temperatures in the mid/upper 70s along and north of the US-36

Further south, maximum temperatures are more likely to

settle in the upper 70s and low 80s.

The dry weather will not last long, however, with rain chances returning as soon as late Tuesday evening.

Showers and storms will be most likely across the northwestern and western portions of the forecast Tuesday night, gradually expanding in coverage throughout the day on Wednesday.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are likely (60-80% chance) across the forecast area mid/late week.

As things stand now, all portions of the forecast area have >80% PoPs sometime between Tuesday and Thursday night; for most, the increased likelihood of rainfall arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday when PWATs between 1.8 and 2.1 nose into the area.

Heavy rainfall is possible, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

Despite the level of uncertainty remaining, widespread accumulations of 1.5" to 2" seem to be the most likely solution at this junction.

For total rainfall accumulations by Friday evening, there is a 1.5 inch spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles across the forecast area.

While confidence in rain is high, confidence in total rainfall accumulations is certainly less so.

Latest guidance suggests that the remnants of weakening Hurricane Polo are to lift toward the southern New Mexico/Texas border on Tuesday, by which point residual tropical moisture and vorticity would be ingested into the aforementioned cyclone.

This system is then progged to surge northeastward into portions of the Southern and Central Plains, introducing heavy rainfall and flooding concerns.

Heavy rainfall is possible, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

For total rainfall accumulations by Friday evening, there is a 1.5 inch spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles across the forecast area.

For the 10th and 90th percentiles, spread spikes to about 3.5 inches.

This is compounded by unclear frontal boundary placements which are pivotal in determining key areas to hone in on for flooding potential.

Looking back at LREF probabilities from the middle of last week up through the most recent run, there is a clear downward trend in total expected QPF.

That said, it will be key to follow system evolution and model trends over the coming days as this will guide future updates.

This is compounded by unclear frontal boundary placements which are pivotal in determining key areas to hone in on for flooding potential.

However, current grids still show roughly 2 to 3 inches of rain across the region for Tuesday evening through Thursday evening, with highest amounts across NW Missouri and NE Kansas.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are likely (60-80% chance) across the forecast area mid/late week.

As things stand now, all portions of the forecast area have >80% PoPs sometime between Tuesday and Thursday night; for most, the increased likelihood of rainfall arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday when PWATs between 1.8 and 2.1 nose into the area.

A quiet day has prevailed across the area

The greatest exception likely being NE

order of 10 degrees warmer, but pleasant in the lwo-mid 70s, as

- Warmer and dry conditions expected through Tuesday for most.

Initial precipitation chances move into the NW CWA later Tuesday as a surface to low level boundary drifts southward out of the Northern Plains.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

This places the greatest initial heavy rain and flood potential toward far NE Kansas and NW Missouri and up through large portions of eastern Nebraska and western to central Iowa through Wednesday.

The NW CWA may just miss out on the heaviest rainfall axis, and this uncertainty is reflected in 48hr NBM 25th/75th ranges of around 1.2 to 3.5 inches through Wednesday night.

And keep in mind, NBM will not capture the potential/likely embedded higher amounts.

Regardless, it will rain area wide.

This transition is interesting in that it "may" result in portions of the area, including the Kansas Cit Metro, being gaped or surrounded by the heavier rainfall amounts.

The 24hr NBM 25th/75th ranges are unsurprisingly wide (in amount and over a very wide area), from around 0.70 to 3.00 inches.

Area looks to dry out later Friday and into the weekend, but both deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at some low-end opportunities for precipitation to linger over central Missouri before more substantial drying (cold front) drops in from the north Sunday.

The large scale synoptic pattern remains well corroborated among the deterministic globals and their ensembles.

Of course, this too remains a couple/few days out and subtle shifts in tracks too will shift the heavy rain axis locations.

MO...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

KS...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

This places the greatest initial heavy rain and flood potential toward far NE Kansas and NW Missouri and up through large portions of eastern Nebraska and western to central Iowa through Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.

All of which will prime the wider region for widespread showers and storms and the potential for both river and areal flooding.

This is further reflected via deterministic PWats of >2.00 inches, which would be near or at record levels for this time of the year, based on TOP sounding climatology and at 99th percentile or MAX within GEFS/Euro Ensemble SA Tables by later Tuesday onward.

Some limitation on rainfall rates though with likely weaker instability due to the abundantly ongoing moist profiles, which may shift the flooding potential away from typical warm season flash flooding and toward slower onset areal and river flooding.

Of course, this too remains a couple/few days out and subtle shifts in tracks too will shift the heavy rain axis locations.

Generally anticipate some expansion to the Flood Watch location over the next couple forecast cycles as details continue to come into increasing focus.

Best odds may be over northern areas, where deformation area may linger and soil moistures are most saturated over the area.

MO...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

KS...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are likely (60-80% chance) across the forecast area mid/late week.

Heavy rainfall is possible, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are likely (60-80% chance) across the forecast area mid/late week.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

MO...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

Given the potential, have coordinated an initial Flood Watch for said areas with northern neighbors, beginning Tuesday night and through Thursday night.