A quiet day has prevailed across the area

The greatest exception likely being NE

order of 10 degrees warmer, but pleasant in the lwo-mid 70s, as

- Warmer and dry conditions expected through Tuesday for most.

Initial precipitation chances move into the NW CWA later Tuesday as a surface to low level boundary drifts southward out of the Northern Plains.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

This places the greatest initial heavy rain and flood potential toward far NE Kansas and NW Missouri and up through large portions of eastern Nebraska and western to central Iowa through Wednesday.

The NW CWA may just miss out on the heaviest rainfall axis, and this uncertainty is reflected in 48hr NBM 25th/75th ranges of around 1.2 to 3.5 inches through Wednesday night.

And keep in mind, NBM will not capture the potential/likely embedded higher amounts.

Regardless, it will rain area wide.

This transition is interesting in that it "may" result in portions of the area, including the Kansas Cit Metro, being gaped or surrounded by the heavier rainfall amounts.

The 24hr NBM 25th/75th ranges are unsurprisingly wide (in amount and over a very wide area), from around 0.70 to 3.00 inches.

Area looks to dry out later Friday and into the weekend, but both deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at some low-end opportunities for precipitation to linger over central Missouri before more substantial drying (cold front) drops in from the north Sunday.

The large scale synoptic pattern remains well corroborated among the deterministic globals and their ensembles.

Of course, this too remains a couple/few days out and subtle shifts in tracks too will shift the heavy rain axis locations.

MO...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

KS...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

This places the greatest initial heavy rain and flood potential toward far NE Kansas and NW Missouri and up through large portions of eastern Nebraska and western to central Iowa through Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.

All of which will prime the wider region for widespread showers and storms and the potential for both river and areal flooding.

This is further reflected via deterministic PWats of >2.00 inches, which would be near or at record levels for this time of the year, based on TOP sounding climatology and at 99th percentile or MAX within GEFS/Euro Ensemble SA Tables by later Tuesday onward.

Some limitation on rainfall rates though with likely weaker instability due to the abundantly ongoing moist profiles, which may shift the flooding potential away from typical warm season flash flooding and toward slower onset areal and river flooding.

Of course, this too remains a couple/few days out and subtle shifts in tracks too will shift the heavy rain axis locations.

Generally anticipate some expansion to the Flood Watch location over the next couple forecast cycles as details continue to come into increasing focus.

Best odds may be over northern areas, where deformation area may linger and soil moistures are most saturated over the area.

MO...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

KS...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are likely (60-80% chance) across the forecast area mid/late week.

Heavy rainfall is possible, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are likely (60-80% chance) across the forecast area mid/late week.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

MO...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

Given the potential, have coordinated an initial Flood Watch for said areas with northern neighbors, beginning Tuesday night and through Thursday night.

bringing the chance (30-50%) of showers and isolated

thunderstorms to the western CWA

upper 70s to mid 80s

Best chances will be across the northwestern CWA where

PoPs will be in the 70-90+% range

south of Highway 50 are less than 15%

Several lead shortwave will eject out of the feature bringing the chance for continued round of storms into the area.

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with unsettled conditions keeping highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday.

The upper level trough will move through the area Thursday night pushing a cold front through the area bringing one last round of heavy rain to the area.

All told, current forecast precipitation amounts for this three day event range from 2-4+ inches for areas along and north of the Highway 36 corridor with 1-3 inches south.

Conditions are expected to be mainly dry in the extended period although a few left over showers will be possible across the southern CWA on Friday.

Much cooler conditions are expected Friday as well with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Surface high pressure then looks to build into the area for the weekend into early next week.

This will aid in keeping highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area today through Thursday night.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.

Antecedent conditions across northern Missouri after this past weekend weather are wetter with 1-3" having had fallen and with the heavier precipitation expected to be focused there the flood watch that is out through Thursday night appears warranted.

MO...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

northwest Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas

Antecedent conditions across northern Missouri after this past weekend weather are wetter with 1-3" having had fallen and with the heavier precipitation expected to be focused there the flood watch that is out through Thursday night appears warranted.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.

All told, current forecast precipitation amounts for this three day event range from 2-4+ inches for areas along and north of the Highway 36 corridor with 1-3 inches south.

Not as much precipitation fell further south over the weekend and with lesser amounts forecast we will hold off on expanding the watch although it may be necessary with further updates.

Not as much precipitation fell further south over the weekend and with lesser amounts forecast we will hold off on expanding the watch although it may be necessary with further updates.

Generally anticipate some expansion to the Flood Watch location over the next couple forecast cycles as details continue to come into increasing focus.

bringing the chance (30-50%) of showers and isolated

thunderstorms to the western CWA

- Warmer and dry conditions expected through Tuesday for most.

Initial precipitation chances move into the NW CWA later Tuesday as a surface to low level boundary drifts southward out of the Northern Plains.

Conditions are expected to be mainly dry in the extended period although a few left over showers will be possible across the southern CWA on Friday.

Surface high pressure then looks to build into the area for the weekend into early next week.

Area looks to dry out later Friday and into the weekend, but both deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at some low-end opportunities for precipitation to linger over central Missouri before more substantial drying (cold front) drops in from the north Sunday.

Our upper-level ridge progression today will allow a low-level jet to progress over the area, which is resulting in isolated showers throughout this afternoon and evening.

The low- level jet will strengthen tonight, and rainfall chances will become much more widespread tonight, and last through late tomorrow morning, especially in Kansas and areas north of Interstate 70 in Missouri.

A few rumbles of thunder may be possible with this round of activity, but the highest chances of seeing actual thunderstorms will be in Kansas, due to higher amounts of instability staying out there.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Today and tonight's rainfall will have an effect on how high temperatures get for Wednesday. Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s. After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability.

Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability.

On-and-off storm chances are anticipated to persist throughout the day Thursday, and will continue to contribute to the flooding risk.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability. On-and-off storm chances are anticipated to persist throughout the day Thursday, and will continue to contribute to the flooding risk. A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures.

A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures.

Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend.

A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures. Our trough and closed-low will continue to progress through the area, and will merge in with zonal flow across the southern Canadian border. Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend. Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

- Friday and the weekend to be more pleasant as high pressure brings more October-like air to the area.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area until Thursday night.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area until Thursday night. Potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area today through Thursday night.

MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

flooding concern across northwest Missouri

northwest Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas

heavy rainfall and training

areas seeing 2"-4" of rainfall, with locally

higher amounts possible over the next few days.

Today and tonight's rainfall will have an effect on how high temperatures get for Wednesday.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with unsettled conditions keeping highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday.

Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend.

Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

Conditions are expected to be mainly dry in the extended period although a few left over showers will be possible across the southern CWA on Friday.

flooding concern across northwest Missouri

KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

northwest Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with unsettled conditions keeping highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday.

Much cooler conditions are expected Friday as well with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Not as much precipitation fell further south over the weekend and with lesser amounts forecast we will hold off on expanding the watch although it may be necessary with further updates.