Our upper-level ridge progression today will allow a low-level jet to progress over the area, which is resulting in isolated showers throughout this afternoon and evening.

The low- level jet will strengthen tonight, and rainfall chances will become much more widespread tonight, and last through late tomorrow morning, especially in Kansas and areas north of Interstate 70 in Missouri.

A few rumbles of thunder may be possible with this round of activity, but the highest chances of seeing actual thunderstorms will be in Kansas, due to higher amounts of instability staying out there.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Today and tonight's rainfall will have an effect on how high temperatures get for Wednesday. Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s. After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability.

Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability.

On-and-off storm chances are anticipated to persist throughout the day Thursday, and will continue to contribute to the flooding risk.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability. On-and-off storm chances are anticipated to persist throughout the day Thursday, and will continue to contribute to the flooding risk. A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures.

A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures.

Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend.

A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures. Our trough and closed-low will continue to progress through the area, and will merge in with zonal flow across the southern Canadian border. Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend. Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

- Friday and the weekend to be more pleasant as high pressure brings more October-like air to the area.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area until Thursday night.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area until Thursday night. Potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area today through Thursday night.

MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

flooding concern across northwest Missouri

northwest Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas

heavy rainfall and training

areas seeing 2"-4" of rainfall, with locally

higher amounts possible over the next few days.

Today and tonight's rainfall will have an effect on how high temperatures get for Wednesday.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with unsettled conditions keeping highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday.

Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend.

Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

Conditions are expected to be mainly dry in the extended period although a few left over showers will be possible across the southern CWA on Friday.

flooding concern across northwest Missouri

KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

northwest Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with unsettled conditions keeping highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday.

Much cooler conditions are expected Friday as well with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Not as much precipitation fell further south over the weekend and with lesser amounts forecast we will hold off on expanding the watch although it may be necessary with further updates.

The low- level jet will strengthen tonight, and rainfall chances will become much more widespread tonight, and last through late tomorrow morning, especially in Kansas and areas north of Interstate 70 in Missouri.

A few rumbles of thunder may be possible with this round of activity, but the highest chances of seeing actual thunderstorms will be in Kansas, due to higher amounts of instability staying out there.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability.

On-and-off storm chances are anticipated to persist throughout the day Thursday, and will continue to contribute to the flooding risk.

A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures.

Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend.

Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

- Friday and the weekend to be more pleasant as high pressure brings more October-like air to the area.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area until Thursday night.

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area today through Thursday night.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.

MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

KS...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-301001- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 0501 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

flooding concern across northwest Missouri

heavy rainfall and training

These factors will result in areas seeing 2"-4" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible

Today and tonight's rainfall will have an effect on how high temperatures get for Wednesday.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

KS...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for KSZ102.

.DISCUSSION... [carried over unchanged]

MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.DISCUSSION... [carried over unchanged]

Issued 1207 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The LLJ never weakens during the course of the day today and continues to nose into the area which will continue shower and thunderstorm chances through the day today.

This will provide for the better chance for some thunderstorms this afternoon as well as the potential for a couple rounds of heavy rainfall.

Highs today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s but will be cooler on Thursday as the cold front moves through with highs ranging in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Tonight, the closed low over the desert southwest will move out into the western Plains forcing a cold front towards he area.

The persistent LLJ coupled with additional lead upper level shortwaves will continue the potential for addition heavy showers and storms.

Tomorrow the closed upper level low will move slowly across Kansas and force the cold front slowly through the area during the day Thursday.

PWATs will still remain in the 1.75-2.00" range continue the chances for heavy rain.

This will bring one last shot of precipitation to the area before he upper level system shifts east by Friday morning.

Fortunately, conditions will dry out Friday and then look dry through the rest of the forecast period.

Friday and Saturday a surface ridge of high pressure will dominate the area providing early fall-like temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

This will provide gradual height rises across the area allowing highs to rise a few degrees into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Monday a surface ridge will build into the area from the northern Plains keeping highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday the surface ridge of high pressure shifts east of the area with modest WAA developing and allowing highs to rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area through Thursday night which may lead to heavy rainfall and flooding.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area today through Thursday night.

to cover most the area along and north of the Highway 36 corridor

This flood watch will be in effect through 1am Friday morning.

All told areas along and north of Highway 36 are forecast to receive 2 to 4+ inches of precipitation with 1 to 3 inches forecast further south.

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area through Thursday night which may lead to heavy rainfall and flooding.

The main change with this forecast package is to shift the axis of heaviest forecast precipitation over the next 48 hours further southward.

the flood watch has been extended one to two counties south and eastward to cover most the area along and north of the Highway 36 corridor

contribute to a flooding concern across northwest Missouri

The LLJ never weakens during the course of the day today and continues to nose into the area which will continue shower and thunderstorm chances through the day today.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Highs today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s but will be cooler on Thursday as the cold front moves through with highs ranging in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

Fortunately, conditions will dry out Friday and then look dry through the rest of the forecast period.

Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

It is in this area that 2-5" of precipitation is forecast.

All told areas along and north of Highway 36 are forecast to receive 2 to 4+ inches of precipitation with 1 to 3 inches forecast further south.

we are expecting to see more shower and storm development over central and eastern Kansas through later this evening, eventually moving into northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri

A few strong to severe storms will be possible

Areas in northwest and northern Missouri have seen a couple inches of rainfall already

northwest Missouri especially is in line to see another 1-2 to inches of rainfall

northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas can see flooding issues overnight

Continued lift will provide rain shower activity for most of the day Thursday and into the evening hours, with some potential for non-severe thunderstorms, though true instability will be limited.

This is when our central Missouri and our southern zones in the forecast area will start to see more efficient rainfall rates.

areas southward toward the Interstate 70 corridor likely will not see flooding issues until Thursday afternoon

By Friday afternoon, the front should clear the forecast area with high pressure building in, and most of the shower activity will exit.

For this weekend, we are expecting drier conditions, seasonable temperatures, and overall, fall-like weather.

temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s, cooler overnight temperatures, and a southeasterly wind

winds will shift to a northerly direction, and help continue seasonable temperatures

Drier conditions, and temperatures typical for this time of year are expected to stick around into next week.

- Flooding Expected, Especially Northwest Missouri

However, other model trends have been lighter on precipitation.

The main question for our western and northwestern zones is how long can activity remained organized.

MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020.

Continued rainfall will also be a problem for flooding, both areal flash flooding and increasing river/stream levels through the end of the work week.

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight

The damaging wind gusts are the more prominent threat with activity this evening.

maybe some low-end severe hail (around quarter size in diameter)

storms may be capable of producing circulations that could produce a tornado

the better environment for this threat remains over Central Kansas

if one is produced, will be brief and weak

Some of the 12z [7 AM CDT] guidance, including the HRRR, brings heavier rainfall southward toward the Interstate 70 corridor, including the KC Metro.

other model trends have been lighter on precipitation

if we continue see pockets of 3-4 inches possible southward, a southward expansion may be come necessary

The main question for our western and northwestern zones is how long can activity remained organized.

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area through Thursday night which may lead to heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Flooding Expected, Especially Northwest Missouri

By Friday afternoon, the front should clear the forecast area with high pressure building in, and most of the shower activity will exit.

This will bring one last shot of precipitation to the area before he upper level system shifts east by Friday morning.

another 1-2 to inches of rainfall