we are expecting to see more shower and storm development over central and eastern Kansas through later this evening, eventually moving into northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri

A few strong to severe storms will be possible

Areas in northwest and northern Missouri have seen a couple inches of rainfall already

northwest Missouri especially is in line to see another 1-2 to inches of rainfall

northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas can see flooding issues overnight

Continued lift will provide rain shower activity for most of the day Thursday and into the evening hours, with some potential for non-severe thunderstorms, though true instability will be limited.

This is when our central Missouri and our southern zones in the forecast area will start to see more efficient rainfall rates.

areas southward toward the Interstate 70 corridor likely will not see flooding issues until Thursday afternoon

By Friday afternoon, the front should clear the forecast area with high pressure building in, and most of the shower activity will exit.

For this weekend, we are expecting drier conditions, seasonable temperatures, and overall, fall-like weather.

temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s, cooler overnight temperatures, and a southeasterly wind

winds will shift to a northerly direction, and help continue seasonable temperatures

Drier conditions, and temperatures typical for this time of year are expected to stick around into next week.

- Flooding Expected, Especially Northwest Missouri

However, other model trends have been lighter on precipitation.

The main question for our western and northwestern zones is how long can activity remained organized.

MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020.

Continued rainfall will also be a problem for flooding, both areal flash flooding and increasing river/stream levels through the end of the work week.

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight

The damaging wind gusts are the more prominent threat with activity this evening.

maybe some low-end severe hail (around quarter size in diameter)

storms may be capable of producing circulations that could produce a tornado

the better environment for this threat remains over Central Kansas

if one is produced, will be brief and weak

Some of the 12z [7 AM CDT] guidance, including the HRRR, brings heavier rainfall southward toward the Interstate 70 corridor, including the KC Metro.

other model trends have been lighter on precipitation

if we continue see pockets of 3-4 inches possible southward, a southward expansion may be come necessary

The main question for our western and northwestern zones is how long can activity remained organized.

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area through Thursday night which may lead to heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Flooding Expected, Especially Northwest Missouri

By Friday afternoon, the front should clear the forecast area with high pressure building in, and most of the shower activity will exit.

This will bring one last shot of precipitation to the area before he upper level system shifts east by Friday morning.

another 1-2 to inches of rainfall

This will bring the potential for several rounds of showers and storms.

All this, coupled with PWATs ranging in the 2.00"-2.25" range, which is in the 100th percentile range for early October, will lead to very efficient rainfall.

through tonight are expected to fall along and south of the Missouri

River where widespread 1-3" of precipitation is forecast with

locally higher amounts possible.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tonight, the closed low upper low will open up into a open wave over the eastern Plains and move through the local area tonight, this will bring one more round of heavier rain the to area and force the cold front southeast of the CWA.

Beyond tonight, the forecast looks mainly dry for the next week.

This will provide cooler conditions with highs in the 60s.

The surface ridge of high pressure will remain in control on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

This will aid in providing subtle height rises over the local area allowing highs to rise into the 70s.

Monday a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the Canadian Plains cooling temperatures back into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A warming trend is expected through the middle of next week as height rises aid in temperatures rising back into the low 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

is still expected to fall.

expected although localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-020.

KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-102.

mitigating flooding across northeast Kansas in northern Missouri

where 1.5 up to 4 inches has already fallen and several area rivers,

creeks, and streams are forecast to rise, or are already in minor to

moderate flood. It is here an additional 0.50-1.50" of precipitation

is still expected to fall.

through tonight are expected to fall along and south of the Missouri

River where widespread 1-3" of precipitation is forecast with

expected although localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

continues to trend further south. This may prove helpful in

mitigating flooding across northeast Kansas in northern Missouri

falling south of the current watch, an expansion is not anticipated

biggest forecast change is that axis of heaviest precipitation

continues to trend further south.

- Flooding Expected, Especially Northwest Missouri

falling south of the current watch, an expansion is not anticipated

inches possible southward, a southward expansion may be come

Beyond tonight, the forecast looks mainly dry for the next week.

- Multiple Rounds of Rain Showers & Storms Through Friday

By Friday afternoon, the front should clear the forecast area with high pressure building in, and most of the shower activity will exit.

Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected.

expected although localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-020.

This will bring the potential for several rounds of showers and storms.

along and south of the Missouri River where widespread 1-3" of precipitation is forecast with locally higher amounts possible

an additional 0.50-1.50" of precipitation is still expected to fall

Highs today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tonight, the closed low upper low will open up into a open wave over the eastern Plains and move through the local area tonight, this will bring one more round of heavier rain the to area and force the cold front southeast of the CWA.

Beyond tonight, the forecast looks mainly dry for the next week.

This will provide cooler conditions with highs in the 60s.

The surface ridge of high pressure will remain in control on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

This will aid in providing subtle height rises over the local area allowing highs to rise into the 70s.

Monday a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the Canadian Plains cooling temperatures back into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A warming trend is expected through the middle of next week as height rises aid in temperatures rising back into the low 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected.

Localized flash flooding possible.

As such widespread flooding is not expected although localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

where 1.5 up to 4 inches has already fallen and several area rivers, creeks, and streams are forecast to rise, or are already in minor to moderate flood

Localized flash flooding possible.

All this, coupled with PWATs ranging in the 2.00"-2.25" range, which is in the 100th percentile range for early October, will lead to very efficient rainfall.

As such widespread flooding is not expected although localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

the biggest forecast change is that axis of heaviest precipitation continues to trend further south

This may prove helpful in mitigating flooding across northeast Kansas in northern Missouri

3-hr flash flood guidance is 2.5 to 4 inches

along and south of the Missouri River

localized flooding cannot be ruled out

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-020.

KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-102.

an expansion is not anticipated at this time

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

northeast Kansas in northern Missouri

- Showers and storms expected through tonight.

With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall. With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River. As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

Temperatures this afternoon are expected to hold in the low-70s.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving. Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected. The cold front, and associated showers, are expected to move out of the area early tomorrow morning. Skies will clear behind front as surface high pressure builds in, creating deep layer subsidence.

Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes.

Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area.

Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s.

Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area. Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s. A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area. Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s. A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%. This, along with surface high pressure building back into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the 60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow.

This, along with surface high pressure building back into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the 60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow.

This will result in a warming trend, with temperatures climbing towards the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

The southeastward movement of the front will create more convergence, allowing widespread showers to develop across the CWA. With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall. With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River. As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving. Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River. As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving. Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

falling south of the current watch, an expansion is not anticipated

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

The southeastward movement of the front will create more convergence, allowing widespread showers to develop across the CWA. With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall. With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River.

With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall. With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River. As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

- Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend.

Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area. Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s. A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight.

The southeastward movement of the front will create more convergence, allowing widespread showers to develop across the CWA.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River.

The cold front, and associated showers, are expected to move out of the area early tomorrow morning.

Skies will clear behind front as surface high pressure builds in, creating deep layer subsidence.

Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes.

Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area.

Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s.

A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

This, along with surface high pressure building back into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the 60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow.

- A warming trend is forecast by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

This will result in a warming trend, with temperatures climbing towards the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ011>014-020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ011>014-020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

.DISCUSSION... [carried over unchanged]

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight.

With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River.

Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

The cold front, and associated showers, are expected to move out of the area early tomorrow morning.

Skies will clear behind front as surface high pressure builds in, creating deep layer subsidence.

Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes.

Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area.

Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s.

A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

This, along with surface high pressure building back into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the 60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow.

This will result in a warming trend, with temperatures climbing towards the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... [NEW in this discussion] MO...None. KS...None.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ011>014-020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... [NEW in this discussion] MO...None. KS...None.

Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected.