- Showers and storms expected through tonight.

With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River.

Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

The cold front, and associated showers, are expected to move out of the area early tomorrow morning.

Skies will clear behind front as surface high pressure builds in, creating deep layer subsidence.

Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes.

Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area.

Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s.

A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

This, along with surface high pressure building back into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the 60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow.

This will result in a warming trend, with temperatures climbing towards the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... [NEW in this discussion] MO...None. KS...None.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ011>014-020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... [NEW in this discussion] MO...None. KS...None.

Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected.

precipitation to have completely wound down by 12Z [7 AM CDT]. With

increasing subsidence, skies should clear out quickly as well,

cooler, drier air moves southward in the

today in the mid 60s, about 10 degrees below normal, with some

recovery for Saturday as the high shifts into the eastern Great

Lakes. Saturday evening/night, another shortwave will track

another cold front south through the area with another push of

slightly cooler but continued drier air south into the region.

- Cooler, fall-like, temperatures expected this weekend.

- Dry conditions are expected through the entire forecast.

The one caveat, at this point, would be Wednesday, when a weak front moves into the area.

Still, the probability of even seeing a hundredth of an inch is only around 5-10%.

Temperatures trend back above normal mid-late next week.

next week are in the lower 70s and we'll see highs about 10

degrees above normal for this time of year, based on the available guidance.

We have a dry forecast going right now and based on available guidance, there is nearly no chance for rain over the next week.

With little or no moisture return into the area, as well as an absence of any shortwave moving through the area, precipitation chances are slim to none for the next week at least.

The one caveat, at this point, would be Wednesday, when a weak front moves into the area.

Still, the probability of even seeing a hundredth of an inch is only around 5-10%.

precipitation to have completely wound down by 12Z [7 AM CDT]. With

- Dry conditions are expected through the entire forecast.

- Showers and storms expected through tonight.

As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving.

Lakes. Saturday evening/night, another shortwave will track

another cold front south through the area with another push of

A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%.

Broad surface anticyclone behind the cold front has been keeping conditions clear across the forecast area today, along with drier and cooler conditions.

- Mild Weather Conditions This Weekend

This will remain the trend through the

temperatures will reach into the lower and mid 70s.

will be a bit cooler, with upper 40s to lower 50s possible.

winds and strong radiational cooling may help promote some fog

development, but overall moisture may be to limited for it to become

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

A few short-wave trough axes will force the surface anticyclone eastward into the Great Lakes Region for the start of the work week, but most of the dCVA stays north of the area, and this is also where all the precipitation chances will remain, keeping our forecast area dry.

- Mostly Dry Forecast Next 7 Days

- Warmer Temperatures Next Week

This will push a thermal ridge eastward, which will introduce a WAA regime through the middle of the next week that gradually take afternoon high temperatures back to the upper 70s and lower 80s, with perhaps mid 80s for areas well south of U.S.

Through the middle of the next work week, ridge over the southwestern CONUS will amplify and increase dAVA into the Central CONUS, allowing another stronger surface anticyclone to develop. This will push a thermal ridge eastward, which will introduce a WAA regime through the middle of the next week that gradually take afternoon high temperatures back to the upper 70s and lower 80s, with perhaps mid 80s for areas well south of U.S. Hwy. 50.

Perhaps a short-wave perturbation of some kind could generate light shower activity, but current ensemble suites keep probabilities for detectable precipitation at under 10 percent.

Hwy. 50. Perhaps a short-wave perturbation of some kind could generate light shower activity, but current ensemble suites keep probabilities for detectable precipitation at under 10 percent. Therefore, will keep the forecast dry for the current 7-day period.

Therefore, will keep the forecast dry for the current 7-day period.

Perhaps a short-wave perturbation of some kind could generate light shower activity, but current ensemble suites keep probabilities for detectable precipitation at under 10 percent.

winds and strong radiational cooling may help promote some fog

development, but overall moisture may be to limited for it to become

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Mild Weather Conditions This Weekend

temperatures will reach into the lower and mid 70s.

- Cooler, fall-like, temperatures expected this weekend.

another cold front south through the area with another push of

winds and strong radiational cooling may help promote some fog

development, but overall moisture may be to limited for it to become

Hwy. 50. Perhaps a short-wave perturbation of some kind could generate light shower activity, but current ensemble suites keep probabilities for detectable precipitation at under 10 percent. Therefore, will keep the forecast dry for the current 7-day period.

Therefore, will keep the forecast dry for the current 7-day period.

The one caveat, at this point, would be Wednesday, when a weak front moves into the area.

Still, the probability of even seeing a hundredth of an inch is only around 5-10%.

- Mostly Dry Forecast Next 7 Days

Therefore, will keep the forecast dry for the current 7-day period.