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Archive: Sunday, October 4, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3, current when the day began

Dry, mild weekend with highs in the 70s; warmer through the work week, with lower 80s south of Interstate 70. No rain expected.

From the NWS discussion issued 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3.

The forecast

  • Saturday afternoon: Cool and dry, with highs in the low to mid-70s.
  • Sunday: A weak cold front passes through, keeping the air dry, and highs stay in the 70s.
  • Tuesday: Breezy south to southwest winds are possible, mainly in the afternoon.
  • Through the work week (whole area; lower 80s south of Interstate 70): Warmer by the middle of the work week, with temperatures back into the upper 70s. Places south of Interstate 70 get highs in the lower 80s.
  • Next 7 days, through Friday: Dry weather is expected all week. That gives high river levels a good chance to keep falling.

How sure forecasters were

The models forecasters use put the chance of measurable rain at 10 percent or less, so they are keeping the forecast dry. The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low through Friday.

Read the NWS wording
remain cool and dry this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid-
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
weak cold front out of the Northern Plains through our area Sunday,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
reinforcing the dry air mass and keeping highs in the 70s under more
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
Breezy south to southwesterly winds will be
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
possible on Tuesday as the surface anticyclone exits eastward
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
layer mixing during the afternoon.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
- Warmer By Middle of Work Week
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
east to provide WAA, pushing temperatures back into the upper 70s,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
with highs in lower 80s for points south of Interstate 70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
and therefore will maintain a dry forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
- Dry weather conditions are expected the next seven days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 3
plenty of opportunity for the elevated river levels to continue to
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
fall through this week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
probabilities for measurable precipitation at 10 percent or less,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 3

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The timing of the warm-up is worded differently. The discussion says warmer by the middle of the work week. The Hazardous Weather Outlook says above-normal temperatures mid to late next week. Neither names an exact day.
Read the NWS wording
- Warmer By Middle of Work Week
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 5:53 p.m. Sat Oct 3
- Above normal temperatures mid to late next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 3

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:47 a.m. discussion

Dry with near-normal temperatures through Monday, then warming above normal from Tuesday. A small rain chance Thursday into Thursday night, mainly in northern Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4.

The forecast

  • Today (Sunday): A weak front moves south through the area this morning. It keeps the weather dry with temperatures typical for the season.
  • Tonight into Monday (whole area; sheltered and low-lying spots cooler): High pressure settles in, bringing a cool night. Lows are mostly in the middle 40s Monday morning. With light winds, sheltered or low-lying spots where cold air collects will see cooler temperatures, in the lower 40s.
  • Tuesday: Southerly winds return, and highs climb above normal into the upper 70s.
  • Mid to late week: Highs return to the 80s. That is between 10 and 15 degrees above normal by the end of next week.
  • Thursday and Thursday night (northern Missouri; overnight, eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri): A warm front moving north may set off a few showers during the day. Better chances come overnight from eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri. Chances are still very small, 10-15% in northern Missouri.

How sure forecasters were

The discussion doesn't say how sure forecasters are about the temperatures. It calls Thursday's rain chances fairly low, around 15% for now, but says they are trending higher.

Read the NWS wording
This shortwave will help push a weak front southward
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
through the area this morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
seasonable temperatures and dry airmass over the region.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
- Continued quiet and dry weather conditions with near-normal temperatures through Monday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
pressure will settle over the region tonight into Monday,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
resulting continued cool overnight lows with widespread middle
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
40s forecast for Monday morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
With light winds, sheltered/
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
cold air drainage areas will see cooler temperatures, in the lower 40s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
That high pressure will shift to over the East Coast by Tuesday, with southerly flow returning for Tuesday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Given this, we'll see highs climb back above normal Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s expected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Highs return to the 80s for mid to late week, which is between 10 and 15 degrees above normal by the end of next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
- Very small chances (10-15%) for rain in northern Missouri Thursday- Thursday night
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Thursday, a warm front starts to lift northward through the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
This may provide just enough lift during the day to get a few showers going.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Otherwise, the better chances arrive overnight when the low-level jet kicks in and enhances lift on the nose of that jet from eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Chances still look fairly low (around 15% currently), though they are trending higher.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Rain chances for Thursday and Thursday night are trending upward. They could rise further from the current low chance, around 15%, in northern Missouri. (northern Missouri; eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
There is one timeframe when precipitation potential is trending upward.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Chances still look fairly low (around 15% currently), though they are trending higher.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4

What changed from the discussion before

  • Rain is now possible Thursday into Thursday night, with very small chances (10-15%) in northern Missouri. The previous discussion kept a dry forecast for the whole week, with rain chances at 10 percent or less. (northern Missouri; eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri)
  • Mid to late week is forecast warmer: highs in the 80s across the area. The previous discussion had upper 70s, with lower 80s only south of Interstate 70. (whole area; previously lower 80s only south of Interstate 70)
Read the NWS wording
- Very small chances (10-15%) for rain in northern Missouri Thursday- Thursday night
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
There is one timeframe when precipitation potential is trending upward.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
probabilities for measurable precipitation at 10 percent or less,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:42 p.m. Sat Oct 3
and therefore will maintain a dry forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:42 p.m. Sat Oct 3
Highs return to the 80s for mid to late week, which is between 10 and 15 degrees above normal by the end of next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
east to provide WAA, pushing temperatures back into the upper 70s,
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:42 p.m. Sat Oct 3
with highs in lower 80s for points south of Interstate 70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:42 p.m. Sat Oct 3

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued Saturday, still says dry weather is expected for seven days. The newer discussion now gives a small rain chance on Thursday.
  • The area for Thursday's rain differs. The key messages say northern Missouri, while the discussion says the better overnight chances run from eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri.
  • The discussion says highs reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal by "the end of next week." It was issued on a Sunday, so it isn't clear whether this means the end of the coming week.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry weather conditions are expected the next seven days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 3
- Very small chances (10-15%) for rain in northern Missouri Thursday- Thursday night
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Otherwise, the better chances arrive overnight when the low-level jet kicks in and enhances lift on the nose of that jet from eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4
Highs return to the 80s for mid to late week, which is between 10 and 15 degrees above normal by the end of next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:47 a.m. Sun Oct 4

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:14 p.m. discussion

The NWS discussion issued 2:14 p.m. Sun Oct 4

The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (it got part of the NWS text wrong), so the NWS text was shown instead.

Key messages

- Quiet and dry conditions continue with seasonable temperatures
  through Monday.

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday and will stick
  around through the end of the week.

- Very small chance (<20%) for rain in northern MO Thursday into
  Friday.

Discussion

The upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to
progress eastward as the weak cold front clears the forecast area.
Light northerly flow behind the front reinforces the dry air mass,
maintaining clear skies. High pressure will build in Monday morning,
bringing weak easterly winds. This setup will keep highs in the mid
70s today and Monday but radiational cooling under clear skies will
allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s.

By Tuesday, the shortwave trough lifts into the Northeast while an
upper-level ridge establishes itself over the western CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure moves east as low pressure develops over the
Great Plains, initiating southerly flow and WAA into the
forecast area. This pattern will persist through the end of the
week, bringing back above average temperatures with highs
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. There is a small chance
(<20%) that northern MO could see some rain Thursday as
southerly flow could advect moisture into the area, but
deterministic and ensemble guidance has been going back and
forth on rain chances so confidence is low at this time.

Eax watches/warnings/advisories

MO...None.
KS...None.

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.