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Archive: Monday, October 5, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 2:14 p.m. Sun Oct 4, current when the day began

The NWS discussion issued 2:14 p.m. Sun Oct 4

The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (it got part of the NWS text wrong), so the NWS text was shown instead.

Key messages

- Quiet and dry conditions continue with seasonable temperatures
  through Monday.

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday and will stick
  around through the end of the week.

- Very small chance (<20%) for rain in northern MO Thursday into
  Friday.

Discussion

The upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to
progress eastward as the weak cold front clears the forecast area.
Light northerly flow behind the front reinforces the dry air mass,
maintaining clear skies. High pressure will build in Monday morning,
bringing weak easterly winds. This setup will keep highs in the mid
70s today and Monday but radiational cooling under clear skies will
allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s.

By Tuesday, the shortwave trough lifts into the Northeast while an
upper-level ridge establishes itself over the western CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure moves east as low pressure develops over the
Great Plains, initiating southerly flow and WAA into the
forecast area. This pattern will persist through the end of the
week, bringing back above average temperatures with highs
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. There is a small chance
(<20%) that northern MO could see some rain Thursday as
southerly flow could advect moisture into the area, but
deterministic and ensemble guidance has been going back and
forth on rain chances so confidence is low at this time.

Eax watches/warnings/advisories

MO...None.
KS...None.

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 3:12 a.m. discussion

Mostly dry. Seasonable Monday, then highs low to mid 80s in southern two-thirds, upper 70s in northern Missouri. ~15% rain chance Thursday night, northern Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5.

The forecast

  • Today (Monday): Dry with clear skies. Light winds turn to come from the southeast late this afternoon and evening. Highs in the middle to upper 70s.
  • Tuesday onward (Southern two-thirds of the forecast area; northern Missouri to the Iowa state line): Warmer, with winds from the south. Highs in the low to mid 80s across the southern two-thirds of the area, and the upper 70s from northern Missouri to the Iowa state line. That is about 10-15 degrees above normal.
  • Thursday night (Northern Missouri): The one exception to the dry week: a low chance of rain in northern Missouri, about 15-20% for at least 0.01" of rain.
  • Through the week: Apart from that Thursday night chance in northern Missouri, dry weather is very likely (>85%) through the week, with above normal temperatures.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say dry weather is very likely (>85%) this week. They keep only a slight chance of rain Thursday night in northern Missouri, because moisture still looks fairly limited.

Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures today.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
clear skies and light winds shifting to the southeast
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
the southeast late this afternoon and evening.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
once again see temperatures climb into the middle to upper 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
For Tuesday onward, high pressure shifts to the eastern US, with low- level flow becoming southerly to southwesterly.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
This will lead to warm advection through the middle of the country and as a result, we'll see our highs climb into the low to mid 80s for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area, and the upper 70s for northern Missouri to the Iowa state line.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
This places highs about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
The exception continues to look like Thursday night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
Ensemble guidance depicts a broad low chance, about 15-20% for at least 0.01" of rain, across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
- Dry conditions are very likely (>85%) through the week with above normal temperatures expected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
This pattern is also very likely to keep the area dry through most of the forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
Moisture still seems fairly limited though, with GFS forecast soundings for northern Missouri and southern Iowa showing the lowest 10,000 feet being dry, with some elevated instability above this dry layer.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
For now, slight chance PoPs are reasonable given the offsetting parameters of modest ascent but relatively poor low-level moisture profiles.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Thursday night's rain chance in northern Missouri depends on two things pulling in opposite directions. Models show some rising air, which helps rain form, but the lowest 10,000 feet of air look dry. (Northern Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
Overnight, models show an area of ascent, noted from 300k to 305K as the low-level jet develops.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
Moisture still seems fairly limited though, with GFS forecast soundings for northern Missouri and southern Iowa showing the lowest 10,000 feet being dry, with some elevated instability above this dry layer.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
For now, slight chance PoPs are reasonable given the offsetting parameters of modest ascent but relatively poor low-level moisture profiles.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5

What changed from the discussion before

  • Highs from Tuesday onward are now low to mid 80s for the southern two-thirds of the area and upper 70s in northern Missouri. The previous discussion said upper 70s to low 80s. (Southern two-thirds of the forecast area; northern Missouri to the Iowa state line)
  • The rain chance in northern Missouri is now focused on Thursday night (~15%). The previous discussion said Thursday into Friday (<20%). (Northern Missouri)
  • Today's (Monday's) highs are now middle to upper 70s. The previous discussion said mid 70s.
Read the NWS wording
This will lead to warm advection through the middle of the country and as a result, we'll see our highs climb into the low to mid 80s for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area, and the upper 70s for northern Missouri to the Iowa state line.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
This pattern will persist through the end of the week, bringing back above average temperatures with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:56 p.m. Sun Oct 4
There is a low chance (~15%) Thursday night across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
- Very small chance (<20%) for rain in northern MO Thursday into Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:56 p.m. Sun Oct 4
once again see temperatures climb into the middle to upper 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
This setup will keep highs in the mid
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:56 p.m. Sun Oct 4
70s today and Monday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:56 p.m. Sun Oct 4

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The Thursday night rain chance is given two slightly different ways: about 15% in the key messages and 15-20% in the discussion.
Read the NWS wording
There is a low chance (~15%) Thursday night across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5
Ensemble guidance depicts a broad low chance, about 15-20% for at least 0.01" of rain, across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 3:12 a.m. Mon Oct 5

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 1:51 p.m. discussion

Warming trend; mid 80s much of the area Wednesday-Thursday if skies stay clear, upper 70s near Iowa; slight rain chance north of I-70 late Thursday-Friday.

From the NWS discussion issued 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5.

The forecast

  • Today and the next couple of days: Mild, dry weather continues. Southerly winds gradually bring temperatures back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
  • Wednesday and Thursday (Much of the area; upper 70s near the Iowa state line): If skies stay mostly clear, highs may reach the mid 80s across much of the area, with upper 70s in areas close to the Iowa state line.
  • Late Thursday into Friday (North of Interstate 70): A slight chance (15-20 percent) of rain. North of Interstate 70, a passing disturbance could perhaps produce some light rain.
  • This weekend: More southerly winds likely keep temperatures above normal, though clouds may hold temperatures down if the system pulls in more moisture.

How sure forecasters were

Above-normal temperatures this weekend are described as likely. The rain chance for late Thursday into Friday is uncertain: forecast models keep switching between bringing rain and staying dry, and the key question is how much moisture returns.

Read the NWS wording
continues to drive mild and dry weather conditions across the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
Over the next couple of days
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
providing southerly flow into the lower Missouri River Valley and gradually pushes temperatures back into the upper 70s and lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
as we get into Wednesday and Thursday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
If skies continue to remain mostly clear
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
help temperatures back into the mid 80s across much of the area, with upper 70s in zones close to the Iowa state line
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
This could provide convergence for areas north of Interstate 70 during this time, and perhaps could generate light rain activity.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
The current forecast updates places slight chance (15-20 percent POPs) into the forecast late Thursday into Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
For the weekend, trough deepens and helps drive more southerly flow into the area, which likely keeps temperatures above normal as we progress further into Fall.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
However, cloud cover may limit temperatures if the system is able to access more moisture and transport it into the region.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
The main question will be how much moisture actually returns to the area in the day preceding, whether flow brings in moisture from the Gulf, or if it is more southwesterly and brings in lower dewpoint air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
Ensemble suites continue bounce between solutions brining in rain, and stay dry.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Whether rain happens late Thursday into Friday, north of Interstate 70, depends on whether winds bring moisture from the Gulf or drier air from the southwest. (North of Interstate 70)
  • The mid-80s highs Wednesday and Thursday across much of the area depend on skies staying mostly clear. (Much of the area)
  • This weekend, clouds could keep temperatures lower if the system brings in more moisture.
Read the NWS wording
The main question will be how much moisture actually returns to the area in the day preceding, whether flow brings in moisture from the Gulf, or if it is more southwesterly and brings in lower dewpoint air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
If skies continue to remain mostly clear
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
help temperatures back into the mid 80s across much of the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
However, cloud cover may limit temperatures if the system is able to access more moisture and transport it into the region.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5

What changed from the discussion before

  • The slight rain chance now runs from late Thursday into Friday north of Interstate 70, instead of just Thursday night across northern Missouri. The chance stays 15-20 percent. (North of Interstate 70 (previously northern Missouri))
  • Earlier, highs from Tuesday onward were low to mid 80s for the southern two-thirds. Now Wednesday and Thursday show mid 80s across much of the area if skies stay clear. Near the Iowa line, still upper 70s. (Much of the area; near the Iowa state line)
Read the NWS wording
The current forecast updates places slight chance (15-20 percent POPs) into the forecast late Thursday into Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
This could provide convergence for areas north of Interstate 70 during this time, and perhaps could generate light rain activity.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
The exception continues to look like Thursday night.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:17 p.m. Mon Oct 5
Ensemble guidance depicts a broad low chance, about 15-20% for at least 0.01" of rain, across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:17 p.m. Mon Oct 5
as we get into Wednesday and Thursday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
If skies continue to remain mostly clear
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
help temperatures back into the mid 80s across much of the area, with upper 70s in zones close to the Iowa state line
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
For Tuesday onward, high pressure shifts to the eastern US, with low- level flow becoming southerly to southwesterly.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:17 p.m. Mon Oct 5
This will lead to warm advection through the middle of the country and as a result, we'll see our highs climb into the low to mid 80s for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area, and the upper 70s for northern Missouri to the Iowa state line.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:17 p.m. Mon Oct 5

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The discussion gives slightly different timing for the rain chance: "late Thursday into early Friday" in one place and "late Thursday into Friday" in another, while the key message says Thursday/Friday.
Read the NWS wording
Later Thursday into early Friday, H5 ridge over the western CONUS will start to break down with the potential for a mid-level vort maxima to traverse the central CONUS.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
The current forecast updates places slight chance (15-20 percent POPs) into the forecast late Thursday into Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5
- Isolated Rain Possible Thursday/Friday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:51 p.m. Mon Oct 5

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.