Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say substantial uncertainty remains about the tropical system's remnants. Next week's rain is described as 'more likely' tied to the western storm system, which 'possibly' brings a cold front.
temperatures are expected to climb into the low 80s across much ofNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
in southern portions of the forecast area and into central MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
where some locations could see high temperatures in the mid/upperNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
The normal high temperature at Sedalia (KDMO) on October 7,NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
tomorrow's forecast high temperatureNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
currently sits at 85 F, a 14 degF difference.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
A weak surface front will sink south Wednesday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
Areas generally north of the Missouri River can expect to see temperatures in the mid 70s on Thursday, and although this slightly closer to normal, it is still around 5 degF warmer.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
As for areas along and south of the Missouri River, temperatures are broadly forecast to top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s with isolated locations in our southern fringes reaching the mid 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning across northern Missouri were further reduced in this forecast cycle, now sitting below 5%.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
While a brief, isolated shower can't be totally ruled out, the low- level jet axis continues to favor areas in Nebraska and Iowa for shower development.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
This will result in building heat over the weekend, with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s in our north to the upper 80s in our southern tier of counties.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
- Mostly dry through the weekend with rain chances returning early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
A more unsettled pattern appears to lie in wait for us next week, most clearly in the form of a deepening upper trough along the West Coast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
Rather, our next best chance of rain is more likely associated with the upper trough and its associated surface low, possibly bringing a cold front through the area early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
While substantial uncertainty remains, remnants of Invest 92L may propagate into portions of central and eastern Missouri as early as Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
While substantial uncertainty remains, remnants of Invest 92L may propagate into portions of central and eastern Missouri as early as Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
As things stand in the current guidance suite, it does not appear that this would bring any meaningful opportunity of rain to our area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning across northern Missouri were further reduced in this forecast cycle, now sitting below 5%.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
any mention of corresponding weather but there is still a 5-10%NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 6:16 a.m. Tue Oct 6
chance for precipitation across northern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 6:16 a.m. Tue Oct 6
While substantial uncertainty remains, remnants of Invest 92L may propagate into portions of central and eastern Missouri as early as Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
As things stand in the current guidance suite, it does not appear that this would bring any meaningful opportunity of rain to our area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
Models move a system onshore along the Gulf coast and take it to the east of the area Sunday into Monday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 6:16 a.m. Tue Oct 6
Our normal highs for the end of the week are near 70 so we will likely be at least 10 degrees above normal and potentially 15+ degrees above normal by late in the weekend. We'll also need to monitor the track a potential tropical system. Models move a system onshore along the Gulf coast and take it to the east of the area Sunday into Monday. So for now, it looks dry for our forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 6:16 a.m. Tue Oct 6
Even warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday, especiallyNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
The normal high temperature at Sedalia (KDMO) on October 7,NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
tomorrow's forecast high temperatureNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:09 p.m. Tue Oct 6
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:32 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7.
How sure forecasters were
Models are in decent agreement on rain forming north of the area Thursday night, leaving little if any chance here, even in far northern Missouri. For the middle to later part of next week, forecasters say there is considerable uncertainty and the forecast will change.
A weak cold front will move through the region today with the only notable effects being a shift of winds from light southwesterly to light northerlyNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
well above normal temperatures are expected today with highs nearing 15 degrees above normal in our southeastern zones.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
Temperatures will be slightly cooler, thoughNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
still much above normal, for ThursdayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
Models are in decent agreement developing precipitation along the nose of developing low-level jet Thursday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
However, the strongest convergence and forcing is north of the area and we'll see little if any chances for precipitation, even in far northern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
- Mainly dry through the weekend with rain returning the first half of next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
- Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal expected through the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
As it's doing this, it will force what's left of current Tropical Depression 9, away from the local area with little or no impact on our weather.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
All of this will occur within a broader scale upper ridge migrating across North America, keeping the temperatures much above normal through the weekend and into the first part of next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
It's not until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame that meaningful precipitation chances return to the area, when a weak boundary may slide south into the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
With modest moisture advection into that boundary, there's at least a chance for precipitation.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
Looking at the middle to later portions of next week, it currently looks more active.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
There is considerable uncertainty with this still so things will change inevitably between now and next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
However, the strongest convergence and forcing is north of the areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
we'll see little if any chances for precipitation, even in far northern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
But a deepening trough in the Southwest would be a more favorable pattern for our area for precipitation, as it would tend to draw moisture northward and eject embedded shortwave into the Plains.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
By Wednesday, this becomes even less distinct as the guidance spread increases.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
As it's doing this, it will force what's left of current Tropical Depression 9, away from the local area with little or no impact on our weather.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
Another feature to watch will be the evolution of Invest 92L which now has a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:30 p.m. Tue Oct 6
While substantial uncertainty remains, remnants of Invest 92L may propagate into portions of central and eastern Missouri as early as Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:30 p.m. Tue Oct 6
As things stand in the current guidance suite, it does not appear that this would bring any meaningful opportunity of rain to our area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:30 p.m. Tue Oct 6
It's not until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame that meaningful precipitation chances return to the area, when a weak boundary may slide south into the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
- Mostly dry through the weekend with rain chances returning early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:30 p.m. Tue Oct 6
As it's doing this, it will force what's left of current Tropical Depression 9, away from the local area with little or no impact on our weather.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Wed Oct 7
Another feature to watch will be the evolution of Invest 92L which now has a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:30 p.m. Tue Oct 6
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Oct 6
There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Tue Oct 6
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 1:32 p.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (it said something the NWS didn't), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal expected through the rest of the week, and into the weekend. - Dry and pleasant weather also expected through the rest of the week, before a potential return of rain next week.
Current synoptic patterns of zonal flow to our north have allowed for a return of seasonably warm temperatures into the 80s, along with calm conditions and overall fair weather. A high pressure center located in the upper Great Plains has also given influence to our weather pattern, and will continue to progress to our north into the Great Lakes region. The high will allow for light and variable winds on Thursday, and southerly winds on Friday. We will continue to see seasonable temperatures, fair skies, and overall, pleasant weather for the rest of the workweek, and into the weekend. Into the weekend, a surface low pressure will begin to develop over the upper Great Plains, and into southern Canada. Additionally, an upper-ridge and an upper-high pressure system will allow for southerly flow and warm-air advection for temperatures to remain in the 80s. The pressure differences over the central part of the CONUS will allow winds to increase this weekend with occasional gusts, especially for areas across Northwestern Missouri. Our other story for this weekend will be the eventual remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias, which as of Wednesday afternoon, is building just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance will progress northward and be to our east by Saturday night, and continue to travel eastward on Sunday as a result of shortwave development with respect to the jet stream beginning to dig southward. Not expecting any impacts from the tropical depression, with the exception of increased cloud cover in our eastern counties. As the weekend progresses, a deepening troughing feature is expected to begin to come in contact with a cut-off low off the coast of the Pacific. In addition, an upper-low will develop over the California coast. This will result in both temperature and moisture advection into early next week. The trough is expected to come through the region into the middle of next week, which will bring our next chances for more seasonable temperatures and rainfall. There is still uncertainty of exact timing, and amount of rainfall, as ensemble spread is much higher beginning on Tuesday.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.