temperatures likely to climb into the low to mid 80s again

dewpoints may climb into lower 60s

So it will once again feel hot for anyone outside this afternoon.

highs at least 10-15 degrees above normal

with some areas pushing 20 degrees above normal

So showers storms seem likely for areas to our north.

With the strongest ascent north of the area and deep dry air to overcome, it's very unlikely anything develops or moves into our northern zones tonight.

So the forecast remains dry with only ~5% PoPs for our far northern zones.

The forecast through Monday continues to look well above normal We're very likely to see highs continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal, with some areas, mainly in our southern and southeastern zones, pushing 20 degrees above normal.

High temperatures will be pushing the lower 90s in our southern and southeastern zones given the dominant upper ridging across the middle of the country.

Within this ridging though, the remnants of Isaias will pass to our east, aided by a strong shortwave moving through the Southern Plains.

- Rain chances return for the middle of next week.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and into at least the next week.

Forecast uncertainty is very high and the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles is around 15 degrees across the area.

This uncertainty naturally spills into the PoP forecast as well.

If this verifies, our highs will be right back in the mid to upper 80s, and pushing 90 degrees, well above our current forecast.

If the upper ridging is stronger, like the deterministic GFS shows, and the ensemble 500mb mean indicates, the chances for precipitation decrease substantially for Tuesday into Wednesday.

If we see something more in line with the deterministic Canadian, which has a shortwave moving through, or the deterministic ECMWF, which has the ridge further east, we would have better chances for rain.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and into at least the next week.

- Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal expected through the rest of the week, and into the weekend.

The trough is expected to come through the region into the middle of next week, which will bring our next chances for more seasonable temperatures and rainfall.

High temperatures will be pushing the lower 90s in our southern and southeastern zones given the dominant upper ridging across the middle of the country.

Additionally, an upper-ridge and an upper-high pressure system will allow for southerly flow and warm-air advection for temperatures to remain in the 80s.

- Rain chances return for the middle of next week.

If the upper ridging is stronger, like the deterministic GFS shows, and the ensemble 500mb mean indicates, the chances for precipitation decrease substantially for Tuesday into Wednesday.

If this verifies, our highs will be right back in the mid to upper 80s, and pushing 90 degrees, well above our current forecast.

The pressure differences over the central part of the CONUS will allow winds to increase this weekend with occasional gusts, especially for areas across Northwestern Missouri.

highs today will climb into the low-mid 80s

The exception is across the NE

temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the upper

this is 10-20 degrees above average for this time of the year

normal high for today is 71F in Kansas City,

69F in Kirksville, and 71F in Sedalia.

Ascent associated with the low along with the nose of a strengthening low-level jet across Iowa will be enough to initiate nocturnal showers and thunderstorms across portions of Iowa, but it's unlikely (<10%) that this activity will propagate into northern Missouri.

Forecast soundings continue to show a deep dry layer below 600mb, so the required moisture isn't in place to support precipitation.

Temperatures over the weekend will range from the low 80s across northern Missouri to the low 90s in central Missouri as the upper- level ridge maintains its position over the area.

This ridge and a developing western trough will keep the remnants of Hurricane Isaias generally east of the Mississippi River heading into next week, with no sensible effects forecast across our area.

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

The speed at which the trough moves into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast. A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek. A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s. The NBM reflects this uncertainty well with a 10-15 degree interquartile spread on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The speed at which the trough moves into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast.

The NBM reflects this uncertainty well with a 10-15 degree interquartile spread on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast.

The speed at which the trough moves into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast.

Moisture from another landfalling tropical storm (Simon) on the west coast of Mexico will work its way north into the south-central Plains, bringing increased PoPs with it.

- Chance for rain continues to increase through the middle of next week.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

- Rain chances return for the middle of next week.

If the upper ridging is stronger, like the deterministic GFS shows, and the ensemble 500mb mean indicates, the chances for precipitation decrease substantially for Tuesday into Wednesday.

If this verifies, our highs will be right back in the mid to upper 80s, and pushing 90 degrees, well above our current forecast.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

Ascent associated with the low along with the nose of a strengthening low-level jet across Iowa will be enough to initiate nocturnal showers and thunderstorms across portions of Iowa, but it's unlikely (<10%) that this activity will propagate into northern Missouri.

Forecast soundings continue to show a deep dry layer below 600mb, so the required moisture isn't in place to support precipitation.

Temperatures over the weekend will range from the low 80s across northern Missouri to the low 90s in central Missouri as the upper- level ridge maintains its position over the area.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and into at least the next week.

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

This ridge and a developing western trough will keep the remnants of Hurricane Isaias generally east of the Mississippi River heading into next week, with no sensible effects forecast across our area.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

The NBM reflects this uncertainty well with a 10-15 degree interquartile spread on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The speed at which the trough moves into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast.

Moisture from another landfalling tropical storm (Simon) on the west coast of Mexico will work its way north into the south-central Plains, bringing increased PoPs with it.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.