Ascent associated with the low along with the nose of a strengthening low-level jet across Iowa will be enough to initiate nocturnal showers and thunderstorms across portions of Iowa, but it's unlikely (<10%) that this activity will propagate into northern Missouri.

Forecast soundings continue to show a deep dry layer below 600mb, so the required moisture isn't in place to support precipitation.

Temperatures over the weekend will range from the low 80s across northern Missouri to the low 90s in central Missouri as the upper- level ridge maintains its position over the area.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and into at least the next week.

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

This ridge and a developing western trough will keep the remnants of Hurricane Isaias generally east of the Mississippi River heading into next week, with no sensible effects forecast across our area.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

The NBM reflects this uncertainty well with a 10-15 degree interquartile spread on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The speed at which the trough moves into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast.

Moisture from another landfalling tropical storm (Simon) on the west coast of Mexico will work its way north into the south-central Plains, bringing increased PoPs with it.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

the current expectation is for storms to stay north and east of the CWA

the MUCAPE gradient is currently situated through the far northeastern corner of the CWA, so precipitation cannot be fully ruled out

The unseasonable warmth that has been present over the past couple of days is expected to continue with temperatures this morning only expected to fall into the low 60s.

The aforementioned ridge over the western CONUS will slide east today bringing mid-level height rises to the Central Plains supportive of temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s.

Areas in central MO may even make a run at 90F.

These values are 15-20 degrees above what is normal for this time of year (normal is a high of 70F in Kansas City, 68F in Kirksville, and 70F in Sedalia).

These temperatures will persist through the weekend and into early next week, thanks to the ridge stalling in its eastward progression as Isaias gets absorbed into the flow.

Aside from some high-level clouds across central MO, the impacts of Isaias will stay to the east of the CWA and the forecast remains dry.

Hurricane Simon is forecast to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico (near Guadalajara) Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The quicker solutions (deterministic GFS and ECMWF and the European ensemble) have the moisture arriving Tuesday with precipitation chances increasing Tuesday afternoon/evening, while the slower solutions (GEFS and Canadian ensemble) bring the moisture into the area on Wednesday.

When it arrives, precipitation chances will increase to 50-70%.

When this remnant moisture actually arrives will dictate temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with the slower solution yielding less cloud cover and warmer temperatures, while the faster solution points to cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances.

LREF guidance currently indicates that there is a 40-60% chance of exceeding 80F on Tuesday and Wednesday with a ~15 degree spread from the 25th to 75th percentiles (73F vs 88F respectively for the KC Metro).

Model guidance diverges Tuesday through the end of the week bringing uncertainty to the forecast.

Until it does arrive, temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above normal.

However, there are discrepancies as to when exactly that plume arrives.

have been producing marginally severe hail over the past couple of hours

severe weather is not expected to continue south of the MO/IA border

precipitation cannot be fully ruled out

When this remnant moisture actually arrives will dictate temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with the slower solution yielding less cloud cover and warmer temperatures, while the faster solution points to cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances.

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the middle of next week.

- Chance for rain continues to increase through the middle of next week.

The quicker solutions (deterministic GFS and ECMWF and the European ensemble) have the moisture arriving Tuesday with precipitation chances increasing Tuesday afternoon/evening, while the slower solutions (GEFS and Canadian ensemble) bring the moisture into the area on Wednesday.

A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s.

A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek.

on their way to mid to upper 80s in most

A few spots near to south of Interstate 70 may touch the

Expect highs through the weekend similar to today, mid to upper 80s and some spots south of Interstate 70 possibly hitting the low 90s.

While Isaias drifts northward post-landfall, the west coast features will progress the pattern such that mid-level ridging builds into the central CONUs and helps deflect Isaias eastward, preventing any sensible effects to the forecast area.

The work-week will start off similar to the weekend, if not a couple to few degrees warmer in spots as the thermal ridge axis gets pushed over the area.

This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90.

Regardless, it will rain within the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame, just a matter of being able to narrow that window some.

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the middle of next week.

Moving toward the middle portions of the week, a sizable amount of uncertainty remains in the forecast.

Namely around precipitation onset and temperatures.

This includes high temperatures spreads of 10 deg F or greater both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

The general evolution is well corroborated among the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles through the weekend.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

This is most evident with the strong wind fields and forcing vs CAPE ... high-shear, low- CAPE.

This too is reflected in the current SPC Day 5 15 percent risk area.

This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90.

That said, there appears there may be a gradually growing consensus around a faster and not as deep (latitudinally) western trough.

Should that prevail, it would tend to push the warm front further north, which in turn would favor warmer temperatures and best precipitation chances further north on Tuesday.

At this time, the NBM and WPC guidance looks to still favor a cooler and more southerly solution, in part as they would have primarily used the previous couple runs of the LREF.

For now, have not deviated from NBM/WPC guidance, with desire to see more run-run confidence and/or continued trend.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

- Well above average temperatures continue into early next week.

This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90.

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

Until it does arrive, temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above normal.

Regardless, it will rain within the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame, just a matter of being able to narrow that window some.

The quicker solutions (deterministic GFS and ECMWF and the European ensemble) have the moisture arriving Tuesday with precipitation chances increasing Tuesday afternoon/evening, while the slower solutions (GEFS and Canadian ensemble) bring the moisture into the area on Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.