on their way to mid to upper 80s in most

A few spots near to south of Interstate 70 may touch the

Expect highs through the weekend similar to today, mid to upper 80s and some spots south of Interstate 70 possibly hitting the low 90s.

While Isaias drifts northward post-landfall, the west coast features will progress the pattern such that mid-level ridging builds into the central CONUs and helps deflect Isaias eastward, preventing any sensible effects to the forecast area.

The work-week will start off similar to the weekend, if not a couple to few degrees warmer in spots as the thermal ridge axis gets pushed over the area.

This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90.

Regardless, it will rain within the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame, just a matter of being able to narrow that window some.

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the middle of next week.

Moving toward the middle portions of the week, a sizable amount of uncertainty remains in the forecast.

Namely around precipitation onset and temperatures.

This includes high temperatures spreads of 10 deg F or greater both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

The general evolution is well corroborated among the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles through the weekend.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

This is most evident with the strong wind fields and forcing vs CAPE ... high-shear, low- CAPE.

This too is reflected in the current SPC Day 5 15 percent risk area.

This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90.

That said, there appears there may be a gradually growing consensus around a faster and not as deep (latitudinally) western trough.

Should that prevail, it would tend to push the warm front further north, which in turn would favor warmer temperatures and best precipitation chances further north on Tuesday.

At this time, the NBM and WPC guidance looks to still favor a cooler and more southerly solution, in part as they would have primarily used the previous couple runs of the LREF.

For now, have not deviated from NBM/WPC guidance, with desire to see more run-run confidence and/or continued trend.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

- Well above average temperatures continue into early next week.

This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90.

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

Until it does arrive, temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above normal.

Regardless, it will rain within the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame, just a matter of being able to narrow that window some.

The quicker solutions (deterministic GFS and ECMWF and the European ensemble) have the moisture arriving Tuesday with precipitation chances increasing Tuesday afternoon/evening, while the slower solutions (GEFS and Canadian ensemble) bring the moisture into the area on Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

early-to-mid October by 15-20 degrees.

the mid-to-upper 80s today through Monday with areas along and

south of I-70 potentially pushing above 90F

brings record high temperatures into play on Sunday and Monday

at KMCI (89F in 1962 and 91F in 1899 respectively) and KSTJ (89F

in 1989 and 2024 and 92F in 1975 respectively).

As has been well advertised in previous forecast cycles, a good deal of uncertainty enters the forecast on Tuesday regarding precipitation and temperatures.

Faster solutions (GFS and GEFS) present lower high temperatures and higher chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon, while slower solutions (ECMWF and ENS) favor a continuation of well above normal highs and a dry forecast.

LREF quartile spreads have narrowed slightly from this time yesterday and are now on the order of 10 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles (76F and 87F respectively in the KC Metro).

- Chances (60-75%) for shower and storms continue to increase through the middle of next week.

Regardless of faster or slower solution, precipitation chances increase on Wednesday to 60-75%.

Areas south of the warm front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE build by Wednesday afternoon with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear creating a classic high shear, low CAPE setup for potential strong to severe storms Wednesday evening/night.

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

As the trough and low pressure system advance east, a cold front will push through the area on Thursday, which should bring Fall temperatures back into the forecast by the end of next week.

Areas south of the warm front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE build by Wednesday afternoon with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear creating a classic high shear, low CAPE setup for potential strong to severe storms Wednesday evening/night.

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

Model guidance continues to be split on how quickly moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Simon reaches the Central Plains.

Faster solutions (GFS and GEFS) present lower high temperatures and higher chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon, while slower solutions (ECMWF and ENS) favor a continuation of well above normal highs and a dry forecast.

How far north the warm front makes it on Wednesday will be dictated by how far south the upper-level tough digs before ejecting eastward, which will drive the location of lee cyclogenesis.

Areas south of the warm front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE build by Wednesday afternoon with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear creating a classic high shear, low CAPE setup for potential strong to severe storms Wednesday evening/night.

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night.

This too is reflected in the current SPC Day 5 15 percent risk area.

- Chances (60-75%) for shower and storms continue to increase through the middle of next week.

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the middle of next week.

LREF quartile spreads have narrowed slightly from this time yesterday and are now on the order of 10 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles (76F and 87F respectively in the KC Metro).

This includes high temperatures spreads of 10 deg F or greater both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

This too is reflected in the current SPC Day 5 15 percent risk area.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Areas south of the warm front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE build by Wednesday afternoon with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear creating a classic high shear, low CAPE setup for potential strong to severe storms Wednesday evening/night.

- Warm, dry weather continues through the weekend.

For those in central Missouri today, looking to the southeast may give you a view of a shield of cirrus from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias

Otherwise, for the rest of the forecast area, broad mid-level ridging will continue to keep skies clear and quiet

provide an opportunity for afternoon gusts around 20-25 mph as the atmosphere decouples with daytime heating, especially across northwest MO/northeast KS.

dry weather under mid-level ridging looks to remain the same through at least early next week

Temperatures and wind increase through Monday.

With this sustained south/southwesterly flow, temperatures will remain warmer than average through Monday, where a shift of mid- level ridging off to the east with shortwave disturbances will orient a belt of higher 850-hPa temperatures over our forecast area and bring the highest temperatures of the period.

Guidance continues to indicate that we will creep close to record daily highs/lows during the early week, with EFI around .7-.75 for maximum temperatures on Monday.

rainfall to generally be around Tuesday evening

The greatest spread resides across northern MO

temperature spreads reside around 10 degF

- Rain chances (60-80%) return Tuesday evening through Thursday.

temperatures continues into Wednesday with the position of the

boundary across central MO remaining variable.

Greater model deviation occurs beyond Wednesday in deterministic guidance, with models such as the GFS lifting the closed low from the western half of the CONUS towards the Great Lakes while the Euro keeps it parked in place as high pressure builds in from the north.

However, between both solutions, a general cool-down in temperatures is expected by the end of the period.

Uncertainty still exists for portions of the forecast Tuesday and

with the overall low confidence in the location/timing of the

This keeps specific details regarding the synoptic-scale forecast uncertain.

Another concern going into Monday will be the potential for fire weather conditions.

A surface low to the northwest will bring an enhanced pressure gradient with surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast, increasing winds during the daytime Monday.

These higher winds, coupled with dry antecedent conditions and warmer temperatures/lower RH values around 30-40%, increases local concerns for fire weather.

Although we are not at headline criteria with the current forecast, these conditions will need to be monitored going into early next week.

during this period will keep attention on severe potential.

there is not a definitive risk outlined for this

This is attributable to the northward extent of the

boundary, with additional uncertainty regarding the impacts of cloud

cover/precipitation on the temperatures for this day.

boundary across central MO remaining variable.

with the overall low confidence in the location/timing of the

Greater model deviation occurs beyond Wednesday in deterministic guidance, with models such as the GFS lifting the closed low from the western half of the CONUS towards the Great Lakes while the Euro keeps it parked in place as high pressure builds in from the north.

However, between both solutions, a general cool-down in temperatures is expected by the end of the period.

there is not a definitive risk outlined for this

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

rainfall to generally be around Tuesday evening

Faster solutions (GFS and GEFS) present lower high temperatures and higher chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon, while slower solutions (ECMWF and ENS) favor a continuation of well above normal highs and a dry forecast.

Another concern going into Monday will be the potential for fire weather conditions.

Model guidance continues to be split on how quickly moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Simon reaches the Central Plains.

give you a view of a shield of cirrus from the remnants of Hurricane

there is not a definitive risk outlined for this