- Warm, dry weather continues through the weekend.

For those in central Missouri today, looking to the southeast may give you a view of a shield of cirrus from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias

Otherwise, for the rest of the forecast area, broad mid-level ridging will continue to keep skies clear and quiet

provide an opportunity for afternoon gusts around 20-25 mph as the atmosphere decouples with daytime heating, especially across northwest MO/northeast KS.

dry weather under mid-level ridging looks to remain the same through at least early next week

Temperatures and wind increase through Monday.

With this sustained south/southwesterly flow, temperatures will remain warmer than average through Monday, where a shift of mid- level ridging off to the east with shortwave disturbances will orient a belt of higher 850-hPa temperatures over our forecast area and bring the highest temperatures of the period.

Guidance continues to indicate that we will creep close to record daily highs/lows during the early week, with EFI around .7-.75 for maximum temperatures on Monday.

rainfall to generally be around Tuesday evening

The greatest spread resides across northern MO

temperature spreads reside around 10 degF

- Rain chances (60-80%) return Tuesday evening through Thursday.

temperatures continues into Wednesday with the position of the

boundary across central MO remaining variable.

Greater model deviation occurs beyond Wednesday in deterministic guidance, with models such as the GFS lifting the closed low from the western half of the CONUS towards the Great Lakes while the Euro keeps it parked in place as high pressure builds in from the north.

However, between both solutions, a general cool-down in temperatures is expected by the end of the period.

Uncertainty still exists for portions of the forecast Tuesday and

with the overall low confidence in the location/timing of the

This keeps specific details regarding the synoptic-scale forecast uncertain.

Another concern going into Monday will be the potential for fire weather conditions.

A surface low to the northwest will bring an enhanced pressure gradient with surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast, increasing winds during the daytime Monday.

These higher winds, coupled with dry antecedent conditions and warmer temperatures/lower RH values around 30-40%, increases local concerns for fire weather.

Although we are not at headline criteria with the current forecast, these conditions will need to be monitored going into early next week.

during this period will keep attention on severe potential.

there is not a definitive risk outlined for this

This is attributable to the northward extent of the

boundary, with additional uncertainty regarding the impacts of cloud

cover/precipitation on the temperatures for this day.

boundary across central MO remaining variable.

with the overall low confidence in the location/timing of the

Greater model deviation occurs beyond Wednesday in deterministic guidance, with models such as the GFS lifting the closed low from the western half of the CONUS towards the Great Lakes while the Euro keeps it parked in place as high pressure builds in from the north.

However, between both solutions, a general cool-down in temperatures is expected by the end of the period.

there is not a definitive risk outlined for this

Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z [4 AM CDT]), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

rainfall to generally be around Tuesday evening

Faster solutions (GFS and GEFS) present lower high temperatures and higher chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon, while slower solutions (ECMWF and ENS) favor a continuation of well above normal highs and a dry forecast.

Another concern going into Monday will be the potential for fire weather conditions.

Model guidance continues to be split on how quickly moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Simon reaches the Central Plains.

give you a view of a shield of cirrus from the remnants of Hurricane

there is not a definitive risk outlined for this

- Hot, dry weather continues through the weekend.

Highs today and Monday will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, which will approach, if not break, record highs.

low temperatures tonight and Monday night will only fall into the upper 60s and low 70s, which is in line with record high minimum temperatures.

Highs today and Monday will be in the upper 80s and low 90s

This will result in a breezy day on Monday, with sustained winds expected to be in the 15-20 mph range with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

This front is expected to advance into northern MO Tuesday morning before stalling out.

North of the front, highs will likely be capped in the upper 70s and low 80s, while areas south of the front will experience another day of highs pushing towards or above 90F.

Moisture transport from the Gulf is expected to reach the area on Tuesday and lift along the slow moving front may be enough to induce showers and storms Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Precipitation chances (25-35%) will add another wrinkle in how high temperatures will climb Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, model guidance suggests that Tuesday afternoon will remain mostly dry before shower and storm chances increase (60-80%) Tuesday evening into the overnight hours as a 30 kt LLJ noses into the area.

With PWAT values forecast to be in 2-2.25" range, heavy rainfall is on the table, though the finer details of this setup still need to be ironed out.

This discrepancy is important, as areas along and south of the front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE develop Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear, creating a low CAPE, high shear setup for potentially strong to severe storms.

Heavy rainfall also remains possible, particularly along the front, Wednesday into Thursday.

However, regardless of which solution you chose to look at, with the initial cold frontal passage on Tuesday/Wednesday, temperatures through the end of the forecast period should return to near seasonal values with highs in the 60s and low 70s behind the front.

Forecast uncertainty increases Wednesday as model solutions diverge regarding the handling of the front across northern MO.

which will approach, if not break, record highs.

which is in line with record high minimum temperatures.

Ordinarily, this would raise fire weather concerns during this time of year, and while it has been very dry for the last week or so, afternoon RH values will only drop to 35-45%, so Red Flag conditions are not expected to be met.

However, this is something that bears watching over the next couple of forecast cycles.

With PWAT values forecast to be in 2-2.25" range, heavy rainfall is on the table, though the finer details of this setup still need to be ironed out.

Heavy rainfall also remains possible, particularly along the front, Wednesday into Thursday.

This discrepancy is important, as areas along and south of the front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE develop Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear, creating a low CAPE, high shear setup for potentially strong to severe storms.

However, given the uncertainty on the placement of the front, it is difficult to say where the most favorable location for storms is Wednesday afternoon/evening.

How far south the front makes it before stalling will dictate how hot temperatures will be across the area.

The deterministic GFS and GEFS indicate that the front will continue moving south through the day on Wednesday, while the Canadian, ECMWF, and ENS hold the front around the I-70 corridor.

This discrepancy is important, as areas along and south of the front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE develop Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear, creating a low CAPE, high shear setup for potentially strong to severe storms.

Models continue to diverge through the end of the forecast period, with the GFS, Canadian, and GEFS lifting the western CONUS trough into the flow and pushing another cold front across the Central Plains, while the ECMWF and ENS generate a cutoff low over the western CONUS and indicate that mid-level ridging will remain present over the central CONUS.

However, regardless of which solution you chose to look at, with the initial cold frontal passage on Tuesday/Wednesday, temperatures through the end of the forecast period should return to near seasonal values with highs in the 60s and low 70s behind the front.

With PWAT values forecast to be in 2-2.25" range, heavy rainfall is on the table, though the finer details of this setup still need to be ironed out.

Heavy rainfall also remains possible, particularly along the front, Wednesday into Thursday.

- Rain chances (60-80%) return Tuesday evening through Thursday.

Ordinarily, this would raise fire weather concerns during this time of year, and while it has been very dry for the last week or so, afternoon RH values will only drop to 35-45%, so Red Flag conditions are not expected to be met.

These higher winds, coupled with dry antecedent conditions and warmer temperatures/lower RH values around 30-40%, increases local concerns for fire weather.

- Chances (60-75%) for shower and storms continue to increase through the middle of next week.

- Shower and storm chances (60-80%) return Tuesday evening through Thursday.

The remainder of the day will be breezy and warm

south/southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.

over much of the forecast area tomorrow

bringing high temperatures into the low 90s and hovering just at/below records for several sites

around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible

Enhanced fire weather concerns during the day Monday.

As the developing surface low lifts off towards the Great Lakes, a cold front will push southeastward towards IA/northern MO.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

- Shower/storm chances increase (60-80%) starting Tuesday evening, lasting through late week.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

Continued impulses along the periphery of the ridge will keep PoPs elevated through midweek as the cold front sags southward.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period.

By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area.

Similar to previous forecasts, though, the eventual progression of the trough towards the Great Lakes will usher in high pressure from the northwest, and cooler temperatures will follow to close out the latter half of the forecast period.

Current low temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s by the end of the time period...

This continued trend increases confidence for Red Flag

Warning criteria not being met.

Enhanced fire weather concerns during the day Monday.

RH values hover around 30-50% across much of the forecast

This continued trend increases confidence for Red Flag

Warning criteria not being met.

conditions still contributes to fire weather concerns, so focus

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

Thus, primary hazards look to be hail and severe winds with any strong storms that are able to develop.

However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

Thus, primary hazards look to be hail and severe winds with any strong storms that are able to develop.

Currently, model guidance suggests that Tuesday afternoon will remain mostly dry before shower and storm chances increase (60-80%) Tuesday evening into the overnight hours as a 30 kt LLJ noses into the area.

With PWAT values forecast to be in 2-2.25" range, heavy rainfall is on the table, though the finer details of this setup still need to be ironed out.

Enhanced fire weather concerns during the day Monday.

This continued trend increases confidence for Red Flag

Warning criteria not being met.

However, this is something that bears watching over the next couple of forecast cycles.

Ordinarily, this would raise fire weather concerns during this time of year, and while it has been very dry for the last week or so, afternoon RH values will only drop to 35-45%, so Red Flag conditions are not expected to be met.

Current low temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s by the end of the time period...

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

The remainder of the day will be breezy and warm, with

south/southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.

temperatures over much of the forecast area tomorrow, bringing high

temperatures into the low 90s and hovering just at/below records for

contribute to continued breezy weather tomorrow (sustained winds

around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected on Monday.

As the developing surface low lifts off towards the Great Lakes, a cold front will push southeastward towards IA/northern MO.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

- Shower/storm chances increase (60-80%) starting Tuesday evening, lasting through late week.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period.

By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area.

- Temperatures cool down through the remainder of the forecast period.

Similar to previous forecasts, though, the eventual progression of the trough towards the Great Lakes will usher in high pressure from the northwest, and cooler temperatures will follow to close out the latter half of the forecast period.

Current low temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s by the end of the time period...

increases confidence for Red Flag

Warning criteria not being met.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected on Monday.

with gusts up to 35 mph possible

Warning criteria not being met.

conditions still contributes to fire weather concerns

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

Much of this convective potential looks to remain elevated during the overnight hours, with lapse rates at/around 6.5-7 C/km during this time period.

Thus, primary hazards look to be hail and severe winds with any strong storms that are able to develop.

However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.