The remainder of the day will be breezy and warm, with

south/southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.

temperatures over much of the forecast area tomorrow, bringing high

temperatures into the low 90s and hovering just at/below records for

contribute to continued breezy weather tomorrow (sustained winds

around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected on Monday.

As the developing surface low lifts off towards the Great Lakes, a cold front will push southeastward towards IA/northern MO.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

- Shower/storm chances increase (60-80%) starting Tuesday evening, lasting through late week.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period.

By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area.

- Temperatures cool down through the remainder of the forecast period.

Similar to previous forecasts, though, the eventual progression of the trough towards the Great Lakes will usher in high pressure from the northwest, and cooler temperatures will follow to close out the latter half of the forecast period.

Current low temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s by the end of the time period...

increases confidence for Red Flag

Warning criteria not being met.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected on Monday.

with gusts up to 35 mph possible

Warning criteria not being met.

conditions still contributes to fire weather concerns

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

Much of this convective potential looks to remain elevated during the overnight hours, with lapse rates at/around 6.5-7 C/km during this time period.

Thus, primary hazards look to be hail and severe winds with any strong storms that are able to develop.

However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening.

By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected today.

near, or above, record temperatures

today, with highs expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s.

across northern MO and northeastern KS

to 15-20 mph by the afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph

This front is expected to reach northwest MO this evening/overnight.

The nose of a 30-35 kt LLJ will reach into southeastern NE and northwestern MO overnight, which may provide enough lift for a few showers to form along or behind the front through the early morning hours.

The progression of the front is expected to slow on Tuesday, with the front becoming nearly stationary across northern MO.

However, the general consensus is for areas south of the front to be in the low 90s (making Tuesday the hottest day of this heat wave), while areas north of the front will see temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.

Dew points are expected to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s by Tuesday afternoon, which will actually bring heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100F into play, which is mind-boggling for mid-October.

The local area will be capped through much of the afternoon, however, the combination of diurnal heating and increasing synoptic support should allow the cap to erode through the day and convection appears likely along the frontal boundary by late afternoon/early evening.

To the west, a mid-level trough will slide east over the Great Basin and lee cyclogenesis will occur in southeastern CO. With better synoptic support focused to the west of the local area, CAM guidance indicates that convective initiation should occur across central KS and areas south by mid-afternoon. The local area will be capped through much of the afternoon, however, the combination of diurnal heating and increasing synoptic support should allow the cap to erode through the day and convection appears likely along the frontal boundary by late afternoon/early evening. Mid- level lapse rates are not overly impressive (6.5-7 C/km), however, given the parameter space previously outlined, strong to severe storms appear possible, with the primary threats being damaging winds and hail up to 1" in diameter.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Shower/storm chances increase (75-95%) Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, lasting through Thursday.

Continued ascent along the frontal boundary Tuesday night will lead to the development of widespread showers and storms by early Wednesday morning, lasting into Thursday.

Though model guidance diverges on the handling of the upper trough beyond Thursday, there is agreement that a cold front will sweep across the Central Plains Thursday afternoon/evening and high pressure will build in from the northwest bringing a cool down to the region.

The current forecast calls for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s on Friday and Saturday with low falling into the 30s on Friday night.

Model guidance remain in poor agreement on where exactly this stall will happen, resulting in large spreads in forecast temperatures on Tuesday.

The presence of this precipitation makes the convective forecast for Wednesday a little uncertain.

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected today.

the winds alone create elevated fire weather concerns given the dry

35-50% range, so Red Flag Criteria is not expected to be met

- Near, or above, record heat continues today and Tuesday.

Dew points are expected to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s by Tuesday afternoon, which will actually bring heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100F into play, which is mind-boggling for mid-October.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Mid- level lapse rates are not overly impressive (6.5-7 C/km), however, given the parameter space previously outlined, strong to severe storms appear possible, with the primary threats being damaging winds and hail up to 1" in diameter.

This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 2 outlook, which outlines eastern KS and western MO in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk with the remainder of northern MO in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk.

Model guidance indicates that at least some instability will be present, with shear values remaining elevated, so it seems as though at least some severe threat exists Wednesday afternoon/evening, though, the best parameter space should be on the southern periphery of the showers.

The presence of this precipitation makes the convective forecast for Wednesday a little uncertain.

SPC has outlined the far southern portion of the CWA in a Day 3 Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk, which matches this thinking.

Model guidance remain in poor agreement on where exactly this stall will happen, resulting in large spreads in forecast temperatures on Tuesday.

The local area will be capped through much of the afternoon, however, the combination of diurnal heating and increasing synoptic support should allow the cap to erode through the day and convection appears likely along the frontal boundary by late afternoon/early evening.

The presence of this precipitation makes the convective forecast for Wednesday a little uncertain.

Though model guidance diverges on the handling of the upper trough beyond Thursday, there is agreement that a cold front will sweep across the Central Plains Thursday afternoon/evening and high pressure will build in from the northwest bringing a cool down to the region.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.

The local area will be capped through much of the afternoon, however, the combination of diurnal heating and increasing synoptic support should allow the cap to erode through the day and convection appears likely along the frontal boundary by late afternoon/early evening.

Mid- level lapse rates are not overly impressive (6.5-7 C/km), however, given the parameter space previously outlined, strong to severe storms appear possible, with the primary threats being damaging winds and hail up to 1" in diameter.

South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening.

- Shower/storm chances increase (75-95%) Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, lasting through Thursday.

- Shower/storm chances increase (60-80%) starting Tuesday evening, lasting through late week.

Model guidance remain in poor agreement on where exactly this stall will happen, resulting in large spreads in forecast temperatures on Tuesday.

However, the general consensus is for areas south of the front to be in the low 90s (making Tuesday the hottest day of this heat wave), while areas north of the front will see temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.

- Near, or above, record heat continues today and Tuesday.

The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs.

The current forecast calls for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s on Friday and Saturday with low falling into the 30s on Friday night.

Similar to previous forecasts, though, the eventual progression of the trough towards the Great Lakes will usher in high pressure from the northwest, and cooler temperatures will follow to close out the latter half of the forecast period.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Shower and storm chances (60-80%) return Tuesday evening through Thursday.

- Shower/storm chances increase (75-95%) Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, lasting through Thursday.

it is very hot (for October)

hovering around the high 80s/low 90s

Gusts are expected to cap out around 35-40 mph

through the remainder of the afternoon and evening

is projected to sag down across northwest

MO/northeast KS through the overnight.

moist advection could contribute to isolated/scattered showers,

especially across northwest MO.

on the lower end (~10-15%).

temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.

Highs in the high 70s/low 80s

80s/low 90s south of the US-36 corridor, where the temperature

forecast will once again approach daily records and heat indices

look to hover around the triple digits.

afternoon, there is a low (15-30%) for showers/storms to develop as

- Continued warm temperatures tomorrow, with increasing chances (60-80%) for showers/storms by tomorrow evening.

reside during the evening

favorable corridor for severe development will be for areas

along/south of the boundary

diminish through the night as capping returns, but residual elevated

MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight

Recent CAMs indicate varied solutions on the continuation of shower/storm activity during the morning/early afternoon on Wednesday.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

PoPs continue through at least Thursday before an upper-level trough situated over the Western CONUS lifts towards the Great Lakes and synoptic high pressure builds in behind it.

A strong cold front will drape down across the forecast area by the end of the week, significantly lowering temperatures in its wake and keeping us much cooler and drier going into the weekend compared to the previous few days.

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

- Temperatures cool significantly by the end of the week, before rising again by early next week.

With this shift of winds towards the south, the forecast will warm slightly by the end of the forecast period, with temperatures in the 60s/70s.

increasing confidence in a cooler temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.

Convective activity will help to push the boundary further south on Wednesday, but guidance continues to deviate on exactly how far south the boundary will sag.

favors the development of strong/severe storms

along/south of the boundary, with threats for damaging wind and hail

up to quarters in the strongest storms.

MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight

Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail up to quarters, and damaging winds.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train

over the same locations.

80s/low 90s south of the US-36 corridor, where the temperature

forecast will once again approach daily records and heat indices

look to hover around the triple digits.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train

over the same locations.

The severe threat will

diminish through the night as capping returns, but residual elevated

MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight

Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail up to quarters, and damaging winds.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train

However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

Model guidance indicates that at least some instability will be present, with shear values remaining elevated, so it seems as though at least some severe threat exists Wednesday afternoon/evening, though, the best parameter space should be on the southern periphery of the showers.

Highs in the high 70s/low 80s

increasing confidence in a cooler temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.

Model guidance remain in poor agreement on where exactly this stall will happen, resulting in large spreads in forecast temperatures on Tuesday.

However, the general consensus is for areas south of the front to be in the low 90s (making Tuesday the hottest day of this heat wave), while areas north of the front will see temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected today.

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

The current forecast calls for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s on Friday and Saturday with low falling into the 30s on Friday night.

A strong cold front will drape down across the forecast area by the end of the week, significantly lowering temperatures in its wake and keeping us much cooler and drier going into the weekend compared to the previous few days.

- Temperatures cool significantly by the end of the week, before rising again by early next week.

With this shift of winds towards the south, the forecast will warm slightly by the end of the forecast period, with temperatures in the 60s/70s.