it is very hot (for October)

hovering around the high 80s/low 90s

Gusts are expected to cap out around 35-40 mph

through the remainder of the afternoon and evening

is projected to sag down across northwest

MO/northeast KS through the overnight.

moist advection could contribute to isolated/scattered showers,

especially across northwest MO.

on the lower end (~10-15%).

temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.

Highs in the high 70s/low 80s

80s/low 90s south of the US-36 corridor, where the temperature

forecast will once again approach daily records and heat indices

look to hover around the triple digits.

afternoon, there is a low (15-30%) for showers/storms to develop as

- Continued warm temperatures tomorrow, with increasing chances (60-80%) for showers/storms by tomorrow evening.

reside during the evening

favorable corridor for severe development will be for areas

along/south of the boundary

diminish through the night as capping returns, but residual elevated

MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight

Recent CAMs indicate varied solutions on the continuation of shower/storm activity during the morning/early afternoon on Wednesday.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

PoPs continue through at least Thursday before an upper-level trough situated over the Western CONUS lifts towards the Great Lakes and synoptic high pressure builds in behind it.

A strong cold front will drape down across the forecast area by the end of the week, significantly lowering temperatures in its wake and keeping us much cooler and drier going into the weekend compared to the previous few days.

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

- Temperatures cool significantly by the end of the week, before rising again by early next week.

With this shift of winds towards the south, the forecast will warm slightly by the end of the forecast period, with temperatures in the 60s/70s.

increasing confidence in a cooler temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.

Convective activity will help to push the boundary further south on Wednesday, but guidance continues to deviate on exactly how far south the boundary will sag.

favors the development of strong/severe storms

along/south of the boundary, with threats for damaging wind and hail

up to quarters in the strongest storms.

MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight

Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail up to quarters, and damaging winds.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train

over the same locations.

80s/low 90s south of the US-36 corridor, where the temperature

forecast will once again approach daily records and heat indices

look to hover around the triple digits.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train

over the same locations.

The severe threat will

diminish through the night as capping returns, but residual elevated

MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight

Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail up to quarters, and damaging winds.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train

However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.

Model guidance indicates that at least some instability will be present, with shear values remaining elevated, so it seems as though at least some severe threat exists Wednesday afternoon/evening, though, the best parameter space should be on the southern periphery of the showers.

Highs in the high 70s/low 80s

increasing confidence in a cooler temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.

Model guidance remain in poor agreement on where exactly this stall will happen, resulting in large spreads in forecast temperatures on Tuesday.

However, the general consensus is for areas south of the front to be in the low 90s (making Tuesday the hottest day of this heat wave), while areas north of the front will see temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected today.

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

The current forecast calls for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s on Friday and Saturday with low falling into the 30s on Friday night.

A strong cold front will drape down across the forecast area by the end of the week, significantly lowering temperatures in its wake and keeping us much cooler and drier going into the weekend compared to the previous few days.

- Temperatures cool significantly by the end of the week, before rising again by early next week.

With this shift of winds towards the south, the forecast will warm slightly by the end of the forecast period, with temperatures in the 60s/70s.

- Record high temperatures possible this afternoon for areas south of the currently stalled out cold front across northern Missouri.

soaring into the upper 80s to lower 90s for locations south of the cold front (decent chance of breaking the record high in Kansas City today)

develop by mid to late afternoon across east- central Kansas,

toward our CWA by early evening.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible this evening into Wednesday morning.

Another round of convection is likely to develop

southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Wednesday

probability matched means on the order of 2" to 3" across

portions of the region, especially for areas south of the KC

metro, with locally higher amounts certainly possible.

The cold front should finally push south through most (if not all) of the CWA by Wednesday afternoon.

While the forecast still shows chance PoPs (around 50 percent or so) throughout the daytime hours of Wednesday, quite a bit of high res guidance suggests we may be by and large dry other than some drizzle or light stratiform rain, with the best chances for any appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across our far southern areas closer to the surface cold front.

- Widespread showers/storms is expected again late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

By Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, the western trough is projected to eject across the south central Plains, which should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late Wednesday night into Thursday morning (PoPs are 90 to 100% across much of the CWA from 1 AM to 1 PM Thursday).

This should bring another inch or so of rainfall across much of the region.

Rain should exit from west to east by Thursday evening as the mid/upper trough scoots off into the Great Lakes region and the cold front races well to the east southeast, with skies mostly clearing from west to east by Friday morning.

Colder and much drier air will infiltrate the CWA on Friday, with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dew points in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Meanwhile, a 1040 mb high centered over the central High Plains and a 1004 mb low centered over the eastern Great Lakes will yield a strong pressure gradient across the area, with northerly winds on the order of 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday morning into early Friday afternoon.

The pressure gradient should begin to subside by later Friday afternoon as the surface high slides eastward closer to our CWA.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

decent chance of breaking the record high in

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

in low level shear/SRH by this evening near the surface front,

which has prompted SPC to upgrade portions of our CWA to a 2% tornado risk.

hoisted a flood watch from 7 pm this evening through 10 AM

Wednesday for areas south and southeast of the KC metro.

probability matched means on the order of 2" to 3" across

portions of the region, especially for areas south of the KC

metro, with locally higher amounts certainly possible.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

Depending on how guidance trends this morning and afternoon, it

is possible that the watch could be expanded northward

(including for the KC metro).

MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ043>045-053-054.

Wednesday for areas south and southeast of the KC metro.

increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train over the same locations.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

which has prompted SPC to upgrade portions of our CWA to a 2% tornado risk.

hail up to quarters in the strongest storms

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area.

While the forecast still shows chance PoPs (around 50 percent or so) throughout the daytime hours of Wednesday, quite a bit of high res guidance suggests we may be by and large dry other than some drizzle or light stratiform rain, with the best chances for any appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across our far southern areas closer to the surface cold front.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Record high temperatures possible this afternoon for areas south of the currently stalled out cold front across northern Missouri.

soaring into the upper 80s to lower 90s for locations south of

the cold front (decent chance of breaking the record high in

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

in low level shear/SRH by this evening near the surface front,

which has prompted SPC to upgrade portions of our CWA to a 2%

- Moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible this evening into Wednesday morning.

southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Wednesday

locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, with HREF

probability matched means on the order of 2" to 3" across

portions of the region, especially for areas south of the KC

metro, with locally higher amounts certainly possible.

While the forecast still shows chance PoPs (around 50 percent or so) throughout the daytime hours of Wednesday, quite a bit of high res guidance suggests we may be by and large dry other than some drizzle or light stratiform rain, with the best chances for any appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across our far southern areas closer to the surface cold front.

By Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, the western trough is projected to eject across the south central Plains, which should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late Wednesday night into Thursday morning (PoPs are 90 to 100% across much of the CWA from 1 AM to 1 PM Thursday).

This should bring another inch or so of rainfall across much of the region.

Rain should exit from west to east by Thursday evening as the mid/upper trough scoots off into the Great Lakes region and the cold front races well to the east southeast, with skies mostly clearing from west to east by Friday morning.

Colder and much drier air will infiltrate the CWA on Friday, with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dew points in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Meanwhile, a 1040 mb high centered over the central High Plains and a 1004 mb low centered over the eastern Great Lakes will yield a strong pressure gradient across the area, with northerly winds on the order of 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday morning into early Friday afternoon.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

decent chance of breaking the record high in

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

in low level shear/SRH by this evening near the surface front,

which has prompted SPC to upgrade portions of our CWA to a 2%

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.

hoisted a flood watch from 7 pm this evening through 10 AM

Wednesday for areas south and southeast of the KC metro.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-141001- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 0501 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

While the forecast still shows chance PoPs (around 50 percent or so) throughout the daytime hours of Wednesday, quite a bit of high res guidance suggests we may be by and large dry other than some drizzle or light stratiform rain, with the best chances for any appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across our far southern areas closer to the surface cold front.

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-141001- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 0501 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ043>045-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for KSZ057-060.

DISCUSSION... [carried over unchanged]

Wednesday for areas south and southeast of the KC metro.

is possible that the watch could be expanded northward

(including for the KC metro).

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight.

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight. Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

along/south of the I-70 corridor, following the boundary/CAPE

The severe threat is expected to diminish through the overnight as the environment becomes more capped and synoptic scale forcing diminishes.

Continued moist advection over the boundary will keep light rain across the forecast area during the early morning, before it looks to also diminish by the afternoon as the boundary sags further south.

Currently, PoPs for the day reside around 30-50% to account for the additional moist advection over the boundary.

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

- Continued chances for precipitation during the day Wednesday and into Thursday.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

The cold frontal passage will help bring down temperatures to more seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s during the daytime.

Building high pressure behind the surface low will enhance the pressure gradient going into Friday, and lead to breezy conditions not too dissimilar from this past Monday (gusts up to 30- 35 mph possible).

Building high pressure will also lead to synoptic- scale subsidence, keeping conditions dry going into the weekend.

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

However, continued southerly flow and the positioning of the ridge axis over the central CONUS maintains thoughts that temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

With uncertainty regarding the evolution of an ongoing flooding concern, have chosen not to extend the Flood Watch in time across the forecast area, with greater opportunities for excessive rainfall continuing to the south and west of the forecast area.

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight. Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

There is an additional concern for isolated tornadoes, especially if storms develop near/along the boundary or within the proximity of the LLJ.

along/south of the I-70 corridor, following the boundary/CAPE

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.

Although storms will remain progressive through the evening with strong cloud layer winds and upshear/downshear vectors, efficient storms training over the same locations will enhance concerns for flooding through the overnight, especially with dry antecedent conditions making it harder for soils to saturate right away.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

along/south of the I-70 corridor, following the boundary/CAPE

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

The primary corridor for continued severe hazards during the day tomorrow resides south of the boundary, which looks to remain just south of our forecast area.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

Wednesday for areas south and southeast of the KC metro.

is possible that the watch could be expanded northward

probability matched means on the order of 2" to 3" across

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

This should bring another inch or so of rainfall across much of the region.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight.

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

for isolated tornadoes, especially if storms develop near/along the

along/south of the I-70 corridor

The severe threat is expected to diminish through the overnight as the environment becomes more capped and synoptic scale forcing diminishes.

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

Continued moist advection over the boundary will keep light rain across the forecast area during the early morning, before it looks to also diminish by the afternoon as the boundary sags further south.

Currently, PoPs for the day reside around 30-50% to account for the additional moist advection over the boundary.

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

As this trough and its attendant surface low lift off towards the northeast, a cold front will sweep southeast across the forecast area and synoptic high-pressure will build in from the west.

The cold frontal passage will help bring down temperatures to more seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s during the daytime.

Building high pressure behind the surface low will enhance the pressure gradient going into Friday, and lead to breezy conditions not too dissimilar from this past Monday (gusts up to 30- 35 mph possible).

Building high pressure will also lead to synoptic- scale subsidence, keeping conditions dry going into the weekend.

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March. As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend. Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday. However, continued southerly flow and the positioning of the ridge axis over the central CONUS maintains thoughts that temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

However, continued southerly flow and the positioning of the ridge axis over the central CONUS maintains thoughts that temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

With uncertainty regarding the evolution of an ongoing flooding concern, have chosen not to extend the Flood Watch in time across the forecast area, with greater opportunities for excessive rainfall continuing to the south and west of the forecast area.

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight.

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

for isolated tornadoes, especially if storms develop near/along the

along/south of the I-70 corridor

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

Although storms will remain progressive through the evening with strong cloud layer winds and upshear/downshear vectors, efficient storms training over the same locations will enhance concerns for flooding through the overnight, especially with dry antecedent conditions making it harder for soils to saturate right away.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

along/south of the I-70 corridor

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

The primary corridor for continued severe hazards during the day tomorrow resides south of the boundary, which looks to remain just south of our forecast area.

With uncertainty regarding the evolution of an ongoing flooding concern, have chosen not to extend the Flood Watch in time across the forecast area, with greater opportunities for excessive rainfall continuing to the south and west of the forecast area.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March. As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend. Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday. However, continued southerly flow and the positioning of the ridge axis over the central CONUS maintains thoughts that temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

A Flood Watch has been issued for areas south and southeast of the KC metro, which may be expanded northward depending on trends in guidance today.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight.

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

along/south of the I-70 corridor

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

Although storms will remain progressive through the evening with strong cloud layer winds and upshear/downshear vectors, efficient storms training over the same locations will enhance concerns for flooding through the overnight, especially with dry antecedent conditions making it harder for soils to saturate right away.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

The severe threat is expected to diminish through the overnight as the environment becomes more capped and synoptic scale forcing diminishes.

Continued moist advection over the boundary will keep light rain across the forecast area during the early morning, before it looks to also diminish by the afternoon as the boundary sags further south.

Currently, PoPs for the day reside around 30-50% to account for the additional moist advection over the boundary.

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

By early Thursday, the upper-level trough over the Intermountain West will lift towards the Great Lakes, and continue precipitation chances through synoptic-scale ascent with dCVA and strong low-level WAA.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

As this trough and its attendant surface low lift off towards the northeast, a cold front will sweep southeast across the forecast area and synoptic high-pressure will build in from the west.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

The cold frontal passage will help bring down temperatures to more seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s during the daytime.

Building high pressure behind the surface low will enhance the pressure gradient going into Friday, and lead to breezy conditions not too dissimilar from this past Monday (gusts up to 30- 35 mph possible).

Building high pressure will also lead to synoptic- scale subsidence, keeping conditions dry going into the weekend.

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

However, continued southerly flow and the positioning of the ridge axis over the central CONUS maintains thoughts that temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

along/south of the I-70 corridor

for isolated tornadoes, especially if storms develop near/along the

Additionally, moisture transport resides just parallel/at a slight angle to the surface boundary, with a moist vertical profile in place.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

Although storms will remain progressive through the evening with strong cloud layer winds and upshear/downshear vectors, efficient storms training over the same locations will enhance concerns for flooding through the overnight, especially with dry antecedent conditions making it harder for soils to saturate right away.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

along/south of the I-70 corridor

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

The primary corridor for continued severe hazards during the day tomorrow resides south of the boundary, which looks to remain just south of our forecast area.

With uncertainty regarding the evolution of an ongoing flooding concern, have chosen not to extend the Flood Watch in time across the forecast area, with greater opportunities for excessive rainfall continuing to the south and west of the forecast area.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).