- Strong/Severe thunderstorms expected during the evening/early overnight tonight.

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

along/south of the I-70 corridor

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

Although storms will remain progressive through the evening with strong cloud layer winds and upshear/downshear vectors, efficient storms training over the same locations will enhance concerns for flooding through the overnight, especially with dry antecedent conditions making it harder for soils to saturate right away.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

The severe threat is expected to diminish through the overnight as the environment becomes more capped and synoptic scale forcing diminishes.

Continued moist advection over the boundary will keep light rain across the forecast area during the early morning, before it looks to also diminish by the afternoon as the boundary sags further south.

Currently, PoPs for the day reside around 30-50% to account for the additional moist advection over the boundary.

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

By early Thursday, the upper-level trough over the Intermountain West will lift towards the Great Lakes, and continue precipitation chances through synoptic-scale ascent with dCVA and strong low-level WAA.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

As this trough and its attendant surface low lift off towards the northeast, a cold front will sweep southeast across the forecast area and synoptic high-pressure will build in from the west.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

The cold frontal passage will help bring down temperatures to more seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s during the daytime.

Building high pressure behind the surface low will enhance the pressure gradient going into Friday, and lead to breezy conditions not too dissimilar from this past Monday (gusts up to 30- 35 mph possible).

Building high pressure will also lead to synoptic- scale subsidence, keeping conditions dry going into the weekend.

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

However, continued southerly flow and the positioning of the ridge axis over the central CONUS maintains thoughts that temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

Initial hazards include large hail and damaging winds before evolving into a damaging wind threat.

along/south of the I-70 corridor

for isolated tornadoes, especially if storms develop near/along the

Additionally, moisture transport resides just parallel/at a slight angle to the surface boundary, with a moist vertical profile in place.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

- Excessive rainfall also expected during the evening/overnight, with a Flood Watch encompassing the KC Metro and areas south/southeast of I-70.

The current Flood Watch was expanded northward to include counties within the KC Metro area, as guidance has also increasingly trended towards higher rainfall accumulations during the overnight period (~2-4 inches in the HREF LPMM by early Wednesday).

Although storms will remain progressive through the evening with strong cloud layer winds and upshear/downshear vectors, efficient storms training over the same locations will enhance concerns for flooding through the overnight, especially with dry antecedent conditions making it harder for soils to saturate right away.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

However, this threat looks to be relatively short-lived as the trough quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes by the evening.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

More recent guidance has been varied with the exact trajectory of

along/south of the I-70 corridor

CAMs have been varied with their resolutions of activity during the day tomorrow, with recent runs either placing additional scattered showers/storms across the area while others keep the forecast area dry for most of the day into the evening.

The primary corridor for continued severe hazards during the day tomorrow resides south of the boundary, which looks to remain just south of our forecast area.

With uncertainty regarding the evolution of an ongoing flooding concern, have chosen not to extend the Flood Watch in time across the forecast area, with greater opportunities for excessive rainfall continuing to the south and west of the forecast area.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

Enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, putting areas of northern MO/northeastern KS under their first frost conditions since late March.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

There are indications of an excessive rainfall threat with this next round of precipitation, with HREF LPMMs coming in a bit hot in swaths of high accumulations during that timeframe (~1-3 inches).

- Cloudy and much cooler today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most locations.

the cold front is draped from NE Missouri to the southwest through Kansas City and into eastern Kansas.

Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms north of the front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon.

- Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms expected late tonight into Thursday morning.

All of this should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures on Thursday should be warmer as the warm front moves south to north through the CWA, with highs in the mid 70s for most locations, but as the surface low exits to the northeast, the trailing cold front should move through from west to east Thursday afternoon/evening.

Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, with sustained winds on the order of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, as well as much cooler temperatures and lower dew points.

Low temperatures Friday morning should be in the mid 40s across the region, with breezy conditions yielding wind chills in the mid to upper 30s.

With strong cold air advection on Friday, afternoon highs should only reach the mid to upper 50s, with breezy northerly winds continuing through mid to late afternoon.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

- Flood watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry Counties in Missouri through Thursday afternoon.

All of this should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through Thursday afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

All of this should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through Thursday afternoon.

By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

the flood watch has been canceled for

almost the entire CWA, except for Linn County KS and Bates and

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043>045-053-054.

KS...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

- Temperatures cool down Friday and Saturday, with increasing likelihood to meet frost/freeze criteria across northern MO (40-60%).

Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds.

As surface high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, northerly winds will turn out of the south, prompting a warm up of high temperatures into the 70s throughout the weekend.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

Model guidance increasingly deviates in the synoptic pattern by the start of next week, leading to decreased confidence in the potential for precipitation by Monday.

- Isolated showers/storms possible throughout the daytime hours today.

Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms north of the front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA.

CAMs have trended slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only scattered showers until after 09z [4 AM CDT]/4am.

Based on the juxtaposition of strongest lift and deepest moisture, the most widespread rainfall will focus between 09z [4 AM CDT]/4am and 15z [10 AM CDT]/10am.

While the strongest instability will remain further south in closer proximity to the front, NAM MUCAPE values increase to 200-400J/kg...supporting a few rumbles of thunder.

Once the initial forcing lifts N/NE of the area, the rain will diminish to scattered showers by late Thursday morning.

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

Once the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, it will pull a strong cold front through the area Thursday afternoon...resulting in an end to the showers and introducing a much cooler airmass for the end of the week.

As Canadian high pressure builds southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the departing front Thursday night into Friday.

Friday morning will be the windiest period with the 13z [8 AM CDT] NBM indicating a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30mph.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

After that, the cool fall weather will continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

As Canadian high pressure builds southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the departing front Thursday night into Friday.

Friday morning will be the windiest period with the 13z [8 AM CDT] NBM indicating a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30mph.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

CAMs have trended slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only scattered showers until after 09z [4 AM CDT]/4am.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

All of this should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through Thursday afternoon.

After that, the cool fall weather will continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA.

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.