- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA.

CAMs have trended slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only scattered showers until after 09z [4 AM CDT]/4am.

Based on the juxtaposition of strongest lift and deepest moisture, the most widespread rainfall will focus between 09z [4 AM CDT]/4am and 15z [10 AM CDT]/10am.

While the strongest instability will remain further south in closer proximity to the front, NAM MUCAPE values increase to 200-400J/kg...supporting a few rumbles of thunder.

Once the initial forcing lifts N/NE of the area, the rain will diminish to scattered showers by late Thursday morning.

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

Once the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, it will pull a strong cold front through the area Thursday afternoon...resulting in an end to the showers and introducing a much cooler airmass for the end of the week.

As Canadian high pressure builds southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the departing front Thursday night into Friday.

Friday morning will be the windiest period with the 13z [8 AM CDT] NBM indicating a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30mph.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

After that, the cool fall weather will continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

As Canadian high pressure builds southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the departing front Thursday night into Friday.

Friday morning will be the windiest period with the 13z [8 AM CDT] NBM indicating a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30mph.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

CAMs have trended slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only scattered showers until after 09z [4 AM CDT]/4am.

While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island).

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

All of this should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through Thursday afternoon.

After that, the cool fall weather will continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA.

Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon.

upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area by early afternoon.

- A cold front will move through the region from west to east this afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph behind the front.

Colder temperatures and drier air will also move in behind the front.

Another mid/upper trough will become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning.

With gusty northwesterly winds continuing, wind chills Friday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s.

- Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday afternoon.

The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central High Plains and toward our CWA.

By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points.

- Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely.

Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern Missouri and NE Kansas.

Saturday should be a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear skies, and light winds.

Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday and into next week out initially out ahead of a shortwave trough over Baja California and then out ahead of a longwave trough that is progged to develop off the West Coast by Monday/Tuesday.

This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon and mid to even upper 70s by Tuesday.

With strong cold air advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res guidance suggests even colder temps than this).

This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours.

This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.

With strong cold air advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res guidance suggests even colder temps than this).

This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours.

However, rainfall totals have trended downward, and the remaining flood watch has been canceled.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

However, expected rainfall totals have trended significantly downward, and the remaining flood watch in effect across far southern portions of the CWA has been canceled.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA.

This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.

After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

- Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely.

Its associated cold front has begun to move into NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and will begin to cool down the area.

Unfortunately though, a good amount of low-level moisture remains behind the front, and will allow dreary and overcast conditions to continue through much or all of the remaining day-time period.

Scattered showers to isolated general thunder will remain possible near and ahead of this frontal passage as well.

- Shower activity comes to an end across the area by this evening.

Along with its associated surface low, a secondary cold front will drop through the area this evening and overnight.

Hi-res guidance, such as HRRR/RAP, have noted a period of enhanced wind gusts with this push (strong subsidence), including run-to-run depictions of gusts into the low-40s mph between 01z [8 PM CDT]-06z [1 AM CDT] this evening.

By Friday morning, the much cooler conditions will have settled across the area with expected lows in the lower 40s for most.

Breezy conditions will continue through the day Friday as well with NW to N winds around 20 mph and gusts 25 to 35 mph.

Ongoing CAA will also limit warming through the day, with most forecast in the low 50s.

- Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Friday night into Saturday morning, potential for the first freeze for NW/N portions of the CWA as skies clear and winds go light to calm across the area.

This keeps the sensible weather abundantly quiet and on the seasonably cool to seasonable, but warming side.

Expect temperatures to rise each day, yielding mid-upper 50s Saturday and mid-upper 60s Sunday.

The start of the work week will see the weekend warming trend persist with continued southerly surface flow and gradually warming 850mb temps.

Prevailing consensus remains for temperatures to rise back toward the mid to upper 70s through mid-week.

While mid-level flow will be more southwesterly in nature and a Baja California mid-level cutoff low gets absorbed into the flow, precipitation chances remain minimal through at least mid- week among the majority of members within ensemble guidance.

NBM did come in notably lighter during this window, have blended in HRRR/RAP solutions to signal the increasingly likely period of enhanced wind gusts.

Cloud cover extent and duration will ultimately be the determinant there.

Hi-res guidance, such as HRRR/RAP, have noted a period of enhanced wind gusts with this push (strong subsidence), including run-to-run depictions of gusts into the low-40s mph between 01z [8 PM CDT]-06z [1 AM CDT] this evening.

NBM did come in notably lighter during this window, have blended in HRRR/RAP solutions to signal the increasingly likely period of enhanced wind gusts.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning.

MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-020.

Cloud cover extent and duration will ultimately be the determinant there.

Skies may initially be on the clear side, but an area of stratus may drop through as the core of the northern stream mid- level trough passes through the region.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning.

Given the cooler trend in guidance, have coordinated a Freeze Watch for portions of the area with western and northern neighbors.

Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern Missouri and NE Kansas.

This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours.

By Friday morning, the much cooler conditions will have settled across the area with expected lows in the lower 40s for most.

Another mid/upper trough will become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning.

Ongoing CAA will also limit warming through the day, with most forecast in the low 50s.

- Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday afternoon.

Expect temperatures to rise each day, yielding mid-upper 50s Saturday and mid-upper 60s Sunday.

Saturday should be a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear skies, and light winds.

- Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.