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Archive: Sunday, October 18, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17, current when the day began

Patchy frost possible in a few low-lying spots tonight, then a dry, warming week with highs building into the 70s and 80s.

From the NWS discussion issued 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17.

The forecast

  • Tonight (Whole area; frost only in a few low-lying spots): Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. This could bring patchy frost in a few low-lying spots.
  • The upcoming week: Dry weather with a gradual warming trend. Air temperatures higher above the ground warm a few degrees each day, driving that warming.
  • Wednesday and beyond: Temperatures are likely to be above normal, building into the 70s and 80s. Forecasters give it a >70 percent chance of above-normal temperatures.
  • Late next week into next weekend: The stuck weather pattern is expected to start breaking down late next week, with rain chances building next weekend. Rain may hold off until just beyond the seven-day forecast.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say above-normal temperatures are likely by midweek, with a >70 percent chance from Wednesday on. The timing of next weekend's rain is less settled.

Read the NWS wording
to fall into the upper 30s-lower 40s tonight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
patchy frost in a few low lying locations
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Dry conditions with gradual warming trend throughout the upcoming week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
925 hpa temperatures warm a few degrees each day leading to the warming trend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Temperatures likely returning above normal by midweek.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
with temperatures building back into the 70s and 80s (>70 percent
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
chance of above normal temperatures Wednesday and beyond)
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Pattern is expected to begin to break down late next week as east coast trough weakens and shifts southwest along the coast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
A deepening trough along the west coast will gradually inch eastward late in the week, leading to building rain chances next weekend, though the trend has been towards a slower solution keeping precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17

What to watch

Patchy frost

Tonight (A few low-lying locations)

Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s could bring patchy frost in a few low-lying spots.

Read the NWS wording
to fall into the upper 30s-lower 40s tonight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
patchy frost in a few low lying locations
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17

Why the forecast might change

  • Rain chances should build next weekend. Computer models have been trending slower, which could keep the rain just beyond the seven-day forecast.
Read the NWS wording
A deepening trough along the west coast will gradually inch eastward late in the week, leading to building rain chances next weekend, though the trend has been towards a slower solution keeping precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17

What changed from the discussion before

  • This morning's Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory (alerts for near-freezing temperatures this morning) ran until 9AM. They are no longer in the key messages, which now focus on a dry, warming week. (Northeastern Kansas, northwest Missouri and much of the rest of the area)
  • Earlier, there was a small (less than 20%) chance of isolated showers Tuesday night, mainly across northern Missouri. The new discussion calls for dry conditions throughout the week. (Mainly northern Missouri)
  • Tonight's lows are now upper 30s to lower 40s, up from mid 30s to lower 40s. Patchy frost is still possible in a few low-lying or sheltered spots. (Whole area; frost in a few low-lying spots)
Read the NWS wording
Dry conditions with gradual warming trend throughout the upcoming week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Temperatures likely returning above normal by midweek.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
- Near freezing temperatures this morning.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
until 9AM for northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri and a frost
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
Tuesday night, a shortwave rounding the upper level ridge acts to briefly flatten the ridge and brings the only really chance for isolated showers (less than 20%) to the area mainly across northern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
to fall into the upper 30s-lower 40s tonight
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
patchy frost in a few low lying locations
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
This will hold low temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
keeping patchy frost relegated to just sheltered area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued early this morning, still lists the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory through 9AM, a time that has now passed.
Read the NWS wording
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:16 a.m. discussion

No hazardous weather expected for the next 7 days. Warming to upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday and Friday; slight shower chance Saturday along and west of I-35.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18.

The forecast

  • Today (Sunday): A chilly start this morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70, near normal. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
  • Monday: Highs in the mid 60s to near 70s.
  • Tuesday and Wednesday: The warming trend continues, with highs reaching the mid 70s by Wednesday.
  • Thursday and Friday: Warmer still, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
  • Saturday (Showers: along and west of I-35; temperatures: whole area): A weak cold front approaches, bringing a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas along and west of I-35. Highs still in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

How sure forecasters were

The discussion says the weather continues to look calm, with no hazards expected. It doesn't say how sure forecasters are beyond that.

Read the NWS wording
to chilly start with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
This will aid in highs returning to near normal in
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the mid 60s to near 70.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
southerly winds between 10 to 15 mph with
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
gusts to 25 mph.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
This will continue the warming trend with highs reaching
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the mid 70s by Wednesday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday and Friday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
will force a weak cold front towards the area Saturday which
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas along
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
highs Saturday will still achieve the mid 70 to lower
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
The weather this forecast package continues to look benign with near
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
forecast) and no hazards expected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

What changed from the discussion before

  • Saturday now has a slight chance (15-25%) of showers along and west of I-35. The previous discussion said rain chances would build next weekend, though the trend had been toward a slower timing keeping them just beyond the seven-day forecast. (Along and west of I-35)
  • For this morning's low, the previous discussion mentioned possible patchy frost in a few low-lying spots; the new one just calls it a chilly start in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with no frost mentioned.
Read the NWS wording
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas along
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
A deepening trough along the west coast will gradually inch eastward late in the week, leading to building rain chances next weekend, though the trend has been towards a slower solution keeping precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:51 p.m. Sat Oct 17
to chilly start with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
patchy frost in a few low lying locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:51 p.m. Sat Oct 17

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The Hazardous Weather Outlook included here was issued Saturday morning. It mentions a Freeze Warning for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM, and a Frost Advisory for most of the rest of the forecast area. The current discussion lists none and expects no hazards.
  • Monday's highs are given as 'mid 60s to near 70s', which could mean near 70 or into the 70s; the wording isn't clear.
Read the NWS wording
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- No hazardous weather expected the next 7 days with near to above normal temperatures forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:11 p.m. discussion

Dry and warming all week, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s; low weekend shower chances return for far northwest Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18.

The forecast

  • Monday: Highs in the mid to upper 60s, a few degrees above normal. Normal highs are generally in the middle 60s to start the week.
  • Midweek through late week: Staying dry and getting much warmer. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, easily 10-15 degrees above normal.
  • Late this week into the weekend (whole area; showers mainly far northwest Missouri, with the front reaching northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas): Temperatures approaching 20 degrees above normal. A front may push into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas late Saturday into Sunday, bringing low shower chances, mainly for far northwest Missouri.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters expect dry weather through the week. The weekend shower chances are uncertain: about 45% of model groupings show the high-pressure ridge roughly splitting Missouri, while the rest place it farther east or weaker.

Read the NWS wording
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
we'll be a few degrees above normal.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
normal highs are generally in the middle 60s to
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
With the upper-level ridging prevailing through the middle of the country, the forecast remains dry through the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
So we should easily be 10-15 degrees
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
approaching 20 degrees above normal by late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
this week and into the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
That front will provide a forcing mechanism for showers before washing out and lifting northward again.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
There is some uncertainty in this though.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
About 45% of 500mb clusters show the ridge axis roughly splitting Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
The remaining clusters are either further east or weaker overall with the ridging by late in the week to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • If the high-pressure ridge is stronger and farther west, weekend shower chances would be held back. If it is weaker or farther east, shower chances could spread farther east.
Read the NWS wording
Stronger ridging that is further west would inhibit precipitation chances.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Weaker ridging or further east ridging would allow precipitation chances to shift further east.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18

What changed from the discussion before

  • Saturday's shower chance shifted. The earlier discussion gave a slight chance (15-25%) Saturday for areas along and west of I-35; now low chances are mentioned for the weekend for far northwest Missouri, with a front late Saturday into Sunday. (Previously areas along and west of I-35; now far northwest Missouri)
  • Monday's highs are now mid to upper 60s, compared with mid 60s to near 70s in the earlier discussion.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas along
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The summary limits weekend shower chances to far northwest Missouri, but the discussion says the front pushes into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No percentage chance is given for the weekend.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.