Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say above-normal temperatures are likely by midweek, with a >70 percent chance from Wednesday on. The timing of next weekend's rain is less settled.
to fall into the upper 30s-lower 40s tonightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
patchy frost in a few low lying locationsNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Dry conditions with gradual warming trend throughout the upcoming week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
925 hpa temperatures warm a few degrees each day leading to the warming trend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Temperatures likely returning above normal by midweek.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
with temperatures building back into the 70s and 80s (>70 percentNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
chance of above normal temperatures Wednesday and beyond)NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Pattern is expected to begin to break down late next week as east coast trough weakens and shifts southwest along the coast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
A deepening trough along the west coast will gradually inch eastward late in the week, leading to building rain chances next weekend, though the trend has been towards a slower solution keeping precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s could bring patchy frost in a few low-lying spots.
to fall into the upper 30s-lower 40s tonightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
patchy frost in a few low lying locationsNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
A deepening trough along the west coast will gradually inch eastward late in the week, leading to building rain chances next weekend, though the trend has been towards a slower solution keeping precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Dry conditions with gradual warming trend throughout the upcoming week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Temperatures likely returning above normal by midweek.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
- Near freezing temperatures this morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
until 9AM for northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri and a frostNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
Tuesday night, a shortwave rounding the upper level ridge acts to briefly flatten the ridge and brings the only really chance for isolated showers (less than 20%) to the area mainly across northern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
to fall into the upper 30s-lower 40s tonightNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
patchy frost in a few low lying locationsNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:47 p.m. Sat Oct 17
This will hold low temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
keeping patchy frost relegated to just sheltered areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:23 a.m. Sat Oct 17
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:16 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18.
How sure forecasters were
The discussion says the weather continues to look calm, with no hazards expected. It doesn't say how sure forecasters are beyond that.
to chilly start with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
This will aid in highs returning to near normal inNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the mid 60s to near 70.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
southerly winds between 10 to 15 mph withNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
gusts to 25 mph.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
This will continue the warming trend with highs reachingNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the mid 70s by Wednesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday and Friday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
will force a weak cold front towards the area Saturday whichNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas alongNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
highs Saturday will still achieve the mid 70 to lowerNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
The weather this forecast package continues to look benign with nearNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
forecast) and no hazards expected.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas alongNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
A deepening trough along the west coast will gradually inch eastward late in the week, leading to building rain chances next weekend, though the trend has been towards a slower solution keeping precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:51 p.m. Sat Oct 17
to chilly start with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
patchy frost in a few low lying locations.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:51 p.m. Sat Oct 17
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Sat Oct 17
- No hazardous weather expected the next 7 days with near to above normal temperatures forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:16 a.m. Sun Oct 18
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:11 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters expect dry weather through the week. The weekend shower chances are uncertain: about 45% of model groupings show the high-pressure ridge roughly splitting Missouri, while the rest place it farther east or weaker.
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
we'll be a few degrees above normal.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
normal highs are generally in the middle 60s toNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
With the upper-level ridging prevailing through the middle of the country, the forecast remains dry through the week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
So we should easily be 10-15 degreesNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
approaching 20 degrees above normal by lateNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
this week and into the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
That front will provide a forcing mechanism for showers before washing out and lifting northward again.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
There is some uncertainty in this though.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
About 45% of 500mb clusters show the ridge axis roughly splitting Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
The remaining clusters are either further east or weaker overall with the ridging by late in the week to the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
Stronger ridging that is further west would inhibit precipitation chances.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Weaker ridging or further east ridging would allow precipitation chances to shift further east.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas alongNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.