Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters expect dry weather through the week. The weekend shower chances are uncertain: about 45% of model groupings show the high-pressure ridge roughly splitting Missouri, while the rest place it farther east or weaker.
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
we'll be a few degrees above normal.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
normal highs are generally in the middle 60s toNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
With the upper-level ridging prevailing through the middle of the country, the forecast remains dry through the week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
So we should easily be 10-15 degreesNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
approaching 20 degrees above normal by lateNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
this week and into the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
That front will provide a forcing mechanism for showers before washing out and lifting northward again.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
There is some uncertainty in this though.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
About 45% of 500mb clusters show the ridge axis roughly splitting Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
The remaining clusters are either further east or weaker overall with the ridging by late in the week to the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
Stronger ridging that is further west would inhibit precipitation chances.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Weaker ridging or further east ridging would allow precipitation chances to shift further east.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas alongNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:29 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19.
How sure forecasters were
The discussion doesn't give a confidence level. It says the work week continues to look quiet and dry, and that the weekend front's moisture looks meager at this time.
highs to push a few degrees above normal inNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
the upper 60s to lower 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Tonight into tomorrow a upper levelNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
the low to mid 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Wednesday the upper level troughNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
into the mid to upper 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Thursday and Friday pushing highs 10-15F degrees above normal withNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
This will force an attendant cold frontNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
the local area will remain aheadNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
which will keep highs in the mid 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
The cold front will look to sag into the area Saturday night into SundayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and westNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridorNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Moisture with this front looks meagerNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
High pressure looks to quick move into theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
area Sunday behind the frontNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
highs will remain above normal in the 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
This work week continues to look quietNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Moisture with this front looks meager at this this timeNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
the next chance for precipitation doesn't look to arrive until this weekend at the earliestNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Moisture with this front looks meager at this this timeNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and westNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridorNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
allow highs to push a few degrees above normal in the upper 60s to lower 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
With highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Temperature trend slightly above normal Monday, then well above normal through the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Thursday and Friday pushing highs 10-15F degrees above normal withNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
above normal and approaching 20 degrees above normal by lateNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and westNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridorNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:21 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say everywhere outside far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas is very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the whole forecast; rain chances are small, and Tuesday's are 10-15% or less.
allowing a weak upper- level shortwave to spread cloud coverNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
with a deep layer of dry air through at least the lowest 12000 ft of the atmosphereNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
there is only a small chance for anything hitting the groundNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
A similar scenario will play out tomorrowNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
mainly just increasing cloud coverNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
With a slightly better moisture profileNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and westNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridorNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.