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Archive: Monday, October 19, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18, current when the day began

Dry and warming all week, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s; low weekend shower chances return for far northwest Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18.

The forecast

  • Monday: Highs in the mid to upper 60s, a few degrees above normal. Normal highs are generally in the middle 60s to start the week.
  • Midweek through late week: Staying dry and getting much warmer. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, easily 10-15 degrees above normal.
  • Late this week into the weekend (whole area; showers mainly far northwest Missouri, with the front reaching northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas): Temperatures approaching 20 degrees above normal. A front may push into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas late Saturday into Sunday, bringing low shower chances, mainly for far northwest Missouri.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters expect dry weather through the week. The weekend shower chances are uncertain: about 45% of model groupings show the high-pressure ridge roughly splitting Missouri, while the rest place it farther east or weaker.

Read the NWS wording
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
we'll be a few degrees above normal.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
normal highs are generally in the middle 60s to
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
With the upper-level ridging prevailing through the middle of the country, the forecast remains dry through the week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
So we should easily be 10-15 degrees
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
approaching 20 degrees above normal by late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
this week and into the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
That front will provide a forcing mechanism for showers before washing out and lifting northward again.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
There is some uncertainty in this though.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
About 45% of 500mb clusters show the ridge axis roughly splitting Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
The remaining clusters are either further east or weaker overall with the ridging by late in the week to the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • If the high-pressure ridge is stronger and farther west, weekend shower chances would be held back. If it is weaker or farther east, shower chances could spread farther east.
Read the NWS wording
Stronger ridging that is further west would inhibit precipitation chances.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Weaker ridging or further east ridging would allow precipitation chances to shift further east.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18

What changed from the discussion before

  • Saturday's shower chance shifted. The earlier discussion gave a slight chance (15-25%) Saturday for areas along and west of I-35; now low chances are mentioned for the weekend for far northwest Missouri, with a front late Saturday into Sunday. (Previously areas along and west of I-35; now far northwest Missouri)
  • Monday's highs are now mid to upper 60s, compared with mid 60s to near 70s in the earlier discussion.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of showers for areas along
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
and west of I-35
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18
highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
the area reach the mid 60s to near 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:13 p.m. Sun Oct 18

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The summary limits weekend shower chances to far northwest Missouri, but the discussion says the front pushes into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No percentage chance is given for the weekend.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:11 p.m. Sun Oct 18

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:29 a.m. discussion

Dry, warm week ahead, with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s by Thursday and Friday; a small shower chance Saturday night into Sunday along and west of I-35.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19.

The forecast

  • Today (Monday): Dry, with highs a few degrees above normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
  • Tuesday: Dry and warmer, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
  • Wednesday: Still dry, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
  • Thursday and Friday: Dry and well above normal: highs 10-15F degrees above normal, in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
  • Saturday: A cold front moves into the Plains, but the area stays ahead of it, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
  • Saturday night into Sunday (Along and west of the I-35 corridor): The front looks to sag into the area, and some light showers are possible (20-30%) along and west of the I-35 corridor. Moisture looks meager.
  • Sunday: High pressure looks to move in quickly behind the front; with no cold air following it, highs stay above normal in the 70s.

How sure forecasters were

The discussion doesn't give a confidence level. It says the work week continues to look quiet and dry, and that the weekend front's moisture looks meager at this time.

Read the NWS wording
highs to push a few degrees above normal in
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
the upper 60s to lower 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Tonight into tomorrow a upper level
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
the low to mid 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Wednesday the upper level trough
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
into the mid to upper 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Thursday and Friday pushing highs 10-15F degrees above normal with
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
This will force an attendant cold front
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
the local area will remain ahead
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
which will keep highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
The cold front will look to sag into the area Saturday night into Sunday
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and west
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridor
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Moisture with this front looks meager
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
High pressure looks to quick move into the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
area Sunday behind the front
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
highs will remain above normal in the 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
This work week continues to look quiet
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Moisture with this front looks meager at this this time
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • The next rain chance doesn't look to arrive until the weekend at the earliest, and the front's moisture looks meager "at this time," so the weekend shower chance along and west of I-35 could still shift. (Along and west of the I-35 corridor)
Read the NWS wording
the next chance for precipitation doesn't look to arrive until this weekend at the earliest
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Moisture with this front looks meager at this this time
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19

What changed from the discussion before

  • The weekend shower chance was limited to far northwest Missouri; now it covers northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with 20-30% along and west of the I-35 corridor. (Weekend shower area)
  • Monday's highs nudged up from the mid to upper 60s to the upper 60s to lower 70s.
  • Late-week warmth is a bit less extreme: earlier highs were upper 70s to lower 80s, approaching 20 degrees above normal; now Thursday-Friday highs are mid 70s to lower 80s, 10-15F above normal.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and west
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridor
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
allow highs to push a few degrees above normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
With highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
- Temperature trend slightly above normal Monday, then well above normal through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
Thursday and Friday pushing highs 10-15F degrees above normal with
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
upper 70s to lower 80s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18
above normal and approaching 20 degrees above normal by late
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 10:50 p.m. Sun Oct 18

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The summary says weekend shower chances are for northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, but the detailed text puts them along and west of the I-35 corridor, which may not cover all of northwest Missouri.
Read the NWS wording
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and west
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridor
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:29 a.m. Mon Oct 19

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:21 p.m. discussion

Above normal temperatures, mostly dry; brief sprinkle possible Tuesday mainly eastern Kansas/nearby Missouri; small chances look limited to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19.

The forecast

  • Today and tonight (Monday): A weak disturbance is spreading clouds over the area. Some rain is showing on radar, but a deep layer of dry air, through at least the lowest 12000 ft, means only a small chance of anything reaching the ground.
  • Tuesday (Whole area; shower chance mainly eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri): More clouds, similar to today. A brief shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out, mainly over eastern Kansas and nearby parts of Missouri. Rain chances are 10-15% or less.
  • Midweek through the end of the week: High pressure builds, bringing well above normal temperatures and keeping rain away through the end of the week.
  • This weekend into early next week (Far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas; rest of area dry): Low rain chances return, but they look confined to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. The rest of the area is very likely (>90%) to stay dry. Temperatures stay above normal.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say everywhere outside far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas is very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the whole forecast; rain chances are small, and Tuesday's are 10-15% or less.

Read the NWS wording
allowing a weak upper- level shortwave to spread cloud cover
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
with a deep layer of dry air through at least the lowest 12000 ft of the atmosphere
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
there is only a small chance for anything hitting the ground
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
A similar scenario will play out tomorrow
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
mainly just increasing cloud cover
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • As high pressure shifts east and weakens by early next week, low rain chances can return, but they look confined to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. (Far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas)
  • On Tuesday, slightly more moisture is why a brief shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out, mainly in eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri. (Mainly eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
With a slightly better moisture profile
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19

What changed from the discussion before

  • Weekend rain chances shrank in area. Earlier, light showers (20-30%) were possible along and west of I-35; now only small chances that look confined to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. (Weekend: previously along and west of I-35; now far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas)
  • The earlier discussion called for dry weather through the week; now a brief shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out Tuesday, mainly in eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri, at 10-15% or less. (Tuesday: mainly eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and west
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridor
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Mon Oct 19

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The timing of the small rain chances is described two ways: the key messages say this weekend, while the discussion says they return as the pattern shifts by early next week.
  • The new discussion says temperatures will be above normal, and well above normal midweek, but gives no specific high temperatures.
Read the NWS wording
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.