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Archive: Tuesday, October 20, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19, current when the day began

Above normal temperatures, mostly dry; brief sprinkle possible Tuesday mainly eastern Kansas/nearby Missouri; small chances look limited to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19.

The forecast

  • Today and tonight (Monday): A weak disturbance is spreading clouds over the area. Some rain is showing on radar, but a deep layer of dry air, through at least the lowest 12000 ft, means only a small chance of anything reaching the ground.
  • Tuesday (Whole area; shower chance mainly eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri): More clouds, similar to today. A brief shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out, mainly over eastern Kansas and nearby parts of Missouri. Rain chances are 10-15% or less.
  • Midweek through the end of the week: High pressure builds, bringing well above normal temperatures and keeping rain away through the end of the week.
  • This weekend into early next week (Far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas; rest of area dry): Low rain chances return, but they look confined to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. The rest of the area is very likely (>90%) to stay dry. Temperatures stay above normal.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say everywhere outside far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas is very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the whole forecast; rain chances are small, and Tuesday's are 10-15% or less.

Read the NWS wording
allowing a weak upper- level shortwave to spread cloud cover
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
with a deep layer of dry air through at least the lowest 12000 ft of the atmosphere
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
there is only a small chance for anything hitting the ground
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
A similar scenario will play out tomorrow
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
mainly just increasing cloud cover
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • As high pressure shifts east and weakens by early next week, low rain chances can return, but they look confined to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. (Far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas)
  • On Tuesday, slightly more moisture is why a brief shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out, mainly in eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri. (Mainly eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
With a slightly better moisture profile
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19

What changed from the discussion before

  • Weekend rain chances shrank in area. Earlier, light showers (20-30%) were possible along and west of I-35; now only small chances that look confined to far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. (Weekend: previously along and west of I-35; now far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas)
  • The earlier discussion called for dry weather through the week; now a brief shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out Tuesday, mainly in eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri, at 10-15% or less. (Tuesday: mainly eastern Kansas and nearby Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and west
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridor
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the area
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Mon Oct 19

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The timing of the small rain chances is described two ways: the key messages say this weekend, while the discussion says they return as the pattern shifts by early next week.
  • The new discussion says temperatures will be above normal, and well above normal midweek, but gives no specific high temperatures.
Read the NWS wording
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:33 a.m. discussion

Warm and mostly dry through the weekend, highs mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday; a front Monday brings a 15-30% shower chance and cooler air.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20.

The forecast

  • Today (Tuesday): Mostly cloudy to cloudy, highs in the lower 70s. A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%), but dry air will most likely make them evaporate before reaching the ground.
  • Tonight (Eastern Kansas and western Missouri): Over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, only a 10-15% chance of rain tonight as dry air stays in place.
  • Wednesday and Thursday: Dry and warming. Highs in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, then mid to upper 70s Thursday.
  • Friday and Saturday: The warming trend continues, with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.
  • Saturday night (Far northwestern Missouri): A cold front approaches but is not expected to arrive. A few showers ahead of it may be possible in far northwestern Missouri.
  • Sunday: Expected to be dry and warm, with the front stalling north and west of the area. Highs stay in the 70s.
  • Monday: The cold front moves in, bringing a 15-30% chance of showers, though moisture will be meager. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
  • Next Tuesday: Cooler behind the front, with temperatures closer to normal for the season, in the 60s.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures through the weekend and mostly dry weather for most places. The latest outlook says the chance of widespread hazardous weather is low.

Read the NWS wording
cloudy to cloudy skies today
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
weak WAA will still allow highs to rise into the lower 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
dry area below 10kft will most likely relegate
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
precipitation (10-15%) to virga.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
remain 10-15% tonight over the eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
rising into the low to mid 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Thursday will present similar
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
mid to upper 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
The gradual warming trend through midweek continues Friday and Saturday as the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This will provide continued height rises pushing highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This front is not expected to reach the area Saturday night but a few showers ahead of it may be possible across far northwestern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s. Sunday into Sunday night a upper level trough over the Four Corners region will weaken and move into the central Plains. This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front on Tuesday cooling temperatures nearer to seasonal normals in the 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
- Predominantly dry conditions expected for most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Mon Oct 19

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Whether far northwestern Missouri sees showers Saturday night depends on the approaching cold front, which is not expected to reach the area; showers ahead of it are only possible. (Far northwestern Missouri)
  • Monday's shower chances are limited because moisture will be meager.
Read the NWS wording
This front is not expected to reach the area Saturday night but a few showers ahead of it may be possible across far northwestern Missouri.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20

What changed from the discussion before

  • For early next week, a cold front now brings a 15-30% shower chance Monday to the area; before, chances were confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas, with the rest very likely (>90%) dry.
  • Above-normal warmth is now expected through this weekend, rather than through the next 7 days; next Tuesday cools to near seasonal normals in the 60s.
Read the NWS wording
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation. That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week. As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area. But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front on Tuesday cooling temperatures nearer to seasonal normals in the 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The key messages say rain chances are only for extreme northwest Missouri this weekend, but the discussion also gives a 15-30% shower chance Monday without naming a specific part of the area.
Read the NWS wording
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 1:55 p.m. discussion

Mostly dry and warmer than normal through the weekend. A few sprinkles possible through Wednesday morning; low shower chances Sunday in far northwest Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20.

The forecast

  • Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning: Clouds spread across the area and highs reach around 70 today. A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) from this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but no meaningful rain is expected.
  • Wednesday: Light winds from the south and highs in the mid-70s.
  • Thursday through Saturday: Warm, with highs in the upper 70s.
  • Sunday (Far northwest Missouri; dry for most other places): A cold front stalls north of the area. Far northwest Missouri has a low chance (15-30%) of a few showers; most other places stay dry.
  • Monday: The cold front should move across the area on Monday, bringing highs back toward normal for this time of year, in the low-to-mid 60s.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and that meaningful rain is unlikely with the sprinkles. Sunday's shower chances in far northwest Missouri remain low because of dry air low in the atmosphere.

Read the NWS wording
- A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but meaningful precipitation is not expected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
is expected to spread across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
allowing temperatures to peak around 70F today
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in light southerly winds.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Weak WAA and mid-level height rises will yield high temperatures in the mid-70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Predominantly dry conditions through the weekend for most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
unlikely that any meaningful precipitation will be seen across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • On Sunday, the cold front is expected to stall north of the area, but it may still be enough to set off a few showers in far northwest Missouri. (Far northwest Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20

What changed from the discussion before

  • Sunday now has a low (15-30%) chance of showers in far northwest Missouri; the previous discussion expected Sunday to be dry. (Far northwest Missouri)
  • Monday's highs are now in the low-to-mid 60s, down from mid 60s to lower 70s. The previous discussion gave Monday a 15-30% shower chance; the new one doesn't mention Monday rain.
  • Saturday's highs are now in the upper 70s; the previous discussion had mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.
Read the NWS wording
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This will provide continued height rises pushing highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The new discussion says the front should cross the area Monday but doesn't say whether showers are possible with it; the previous one gave a 15-30% chance Monday.
Read the NWS wording
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.