Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say everywhere outside far northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas is very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the whole forecast; rain chances are small, and Tuesday's are 10-15% or less.
allowing a weak upper- level shortwave to spread cloud coverNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
with a deep layer of dry air through at least the lowest 12000 ft of the atmosphereNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
there is only a small chance for anything hitting the groundNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
A similar scenario will play out tomorrowNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
mainly just increasing cloud coverNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
With a slightly better moisture profileNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and westNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
of the I-35 corridorNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:15 p.m. Mon Oct 19
can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
PoPs are 10-15% or less through the areaNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:21 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:33 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures through the weekend and mostly dry weather for most places. The latest outlook says the chance of widespread hazardous weather is low.
cloudy to cloudy skies todayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
weak WAA will still allow highs to rise into the lower 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
dry area below 10kft will most likely relegateNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
precipitation (10-15%) to virga.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
remain 10-15% tonight over the eastern Kansas and western Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
rising into the low to mid 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Thursday will present similarNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
mid to upper 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
The gradual warming trend through midweek continues Friday and Saturday as the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This will provide continued height rises pushing highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This front is not expected to reach the area Saturday night but a few showers ahead of it may be possible across far northwestern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s. Sunday into Sunday night a upper level trough over the Four Corners region will weaken and move into the central Plains. This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front on Tuesday cooling temperatures nearer to seasonal normals in the 60s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
- Predominantly dry conditions expected for most locations.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Mon Oct 19
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
This front is not expected to reach the area Saturday night but a few showers ahead of it may be possible across far northwestern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation. That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week. As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area. But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front on Tuesday cooling temperatures nearer to seasonal normals in the 60s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:52 p.m. Mon Oct 19
Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 a.m. Tue Oct 20
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 1:55 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and that meaningful rain is unlikely with the sprinkles. Sunday's shower chances in far northwest Missouri remain low because of dry air low in the atmosphere.
- A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but meaningful precipitation is not expected.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
is expected to spread acrossNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
allowing temperatures to peak around 70F todayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in light southerly winds.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Weak WAA and mid-level height rises will yield high temperatures in the mid-70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Predominantly dry conditions through the weekend for most locations.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
unlikely that any meaningful precipitation will be seen acrossNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This will provide continued height rises pushing highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.