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Archive: Wednesday, October 21, 2026.

Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast

Alerts

Out that day

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.

3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.

From the discussion of 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20, current when the day began

Mostly dry and warmer than normal through the weekend. A few sprinkles possible through Wednesday morning; low shower chances Sunday in far northwest Missouri.

From the NWS discussion issued 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20.

The forecast

  • Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning: Clouds spread across the area and highs reach around 70 today. A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) from this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but no meaningful rain is expected.
  • Wednesday: Light winds from the south and highs in the mid-70s.
  • Thursday through Saturday: Warm, with highs in the upper 70s.
  • Sunday (Far northwest Missouri; dry for most other places): A cold front stalls north of the area. Far northwest Missouri has a low chance (15-30%) of a few showers; most other places stay dry.
  • Monday: The cold front should move across the area on Monday, bringing highs back toward normal for this time of year, in the low-to-mid 60s.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and that meaningful rain is unlikely with the sprinkles. Sunday's shower chances in far northwest Missouri remain low because of dry air low in the atmosphere.

Read the NWS wording
- A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but meaningful precipitation is not expected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
is expected to spread across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
allowing temperatures to peak around 70F today
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in light southerly winds.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Weak WAA and mid-level height rises will yield high temperatures in the mid-70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Predominantly dry conditions through the weekend for most locations.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
unlikely that any meaningful precipitation will be seen across
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • On Sunday, the cold front is expected to stall north of the area, but it may still be enough to set off a few showers in far northwest Missouri. (Far northwest Missouri)
Read the NWS wording
This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20

What changed from the discussion before

  • Sunday now has a low (15-30%) chance of showers in far northwest Missouri; the previous discussion expected Sunday to be dry. (Far northwest Missouri)
  • Monday's highs are now in the low-to-mid 60s, down from mid 60s to lower 70s. The previous discussion gave Monday a 15-30% shower chance; the new one doesn't mention Monday rain.
  • Saturday's highs are now in the upper 70s; the previous discussion had mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.
Read the NWS wording
Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20
By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20
This will provide continued height rises pushing highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:21 p.m. Tue Oct 20

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The new discussion says the front should cross the area Monday but doesn't say whether showers are possible with it; the previous one gave a 15-30% chance Monday.
Read the NWS wording
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Tue Oct 20

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:45 a.m. discussion

Warm, dry weather expected through the weekend; morning sprinkles possible in eastern Kansas and western Missouri; rain chances (20-50%) return Monday.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21.

The forecast

  • Wednesday, through mid-morning (eastern Kansas and western Missouri): In eastern Kansas and western Missouri, a few brief, very light sprinkles are possible (10-15%) until mid-morning, but meaningful rain is not expected. The lower air is too dry for much to reach the ground.
  • Wednesday: Dry conditions expected after the morning, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
  • Thursday: Warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
  • Friday and Saturday: Above normal temperatures and dry, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80.
  • Sunday: Still warm, with highs again in the 70s, ahead of a cold front moving into the Plains.
  • Monday and Monday night: A cold front moves through, bringing rain chances back Monday (20-50%), with shower chances continuing Monday night. Monday highs range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.
  • After the cold front passes: Cooler, with highs near normal for the season, in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters say warm, dry weather is "expected" through the weekend and sprinkles are only "possible" this morning in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The discussion doesn't say how sure they are about Monday's rain beyond its 20-50% chance.

Read the NWS wording
- A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) through mid-morning, but meaningful precipitation is not expected.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
moving into the eastern Kansas and western Missouri
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
falling into dry air below 10kft
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
relegated to brief very light sprinkles
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
These brief sprinkles may continue until mid-morning
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
will drive highs into the low to mid 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
expected Thursday as the upper level ridge axis moves from the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
the mid to upper 70s
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
This will aid in highs rising into the mid
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
70 to near 80.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
This will force an attendant cold front into the Plains on Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
The local area will remain in the warm sector ahead of the front with highs again in the 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
The upper trough will then move through the region on Monday night continuing shower chances as the front is forcing through the CWA.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Temperatures in Monday will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the cold front cooling highs to near seasonal normals in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

What changed from the discussion before

  • The low chance (15-30%) of showers Sunday in far northwest Missouri is gone; the whole weekend is now expected to be dry. (far northwest Missouri (previous); whole area (current))
  • Monday now has rain chances (20-50%) as the cold front moves through; the previous discussion mentioned the Monday front but gave no rain chance for it.
  • Monday highs are now lower 60s to lower 70s; the previous discussion had the Monday front bringing highs back toward normal in the low-to-mid 60s.
Read the NWS wording
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through this weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Only low precipitation chances (15-30%) for extreme NW MO on Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:57 p.m. Tue Oct 20
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:57 p.m. Tue Oct 20
Temperatures in Monday will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The discussion doesn't say which day the cooler upper 50s to mid 60s highs begin after the front, only that they come behind it.
Read the NWS wording
Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the cold front cooling highs to near seasonal normals in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:45 a.m. Wed Oct 21

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.

From the 2:53 p.m. discussion

Above-normal temperatures and dry weather through the weekend; a cold front brings cooler air and a slight rain chance Monday into Tuesday.

From the NWS discussion issued 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21.

The forecast

  • Tonight (Whole area (lows given for most of the area)): Clear skies and light winds continue. Lows in the lower 50s across most of the area.
  • Thursday: Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer in the afternoon, with clear skies and nearly calm winds.
  • Friday through Sunday: Afternoon highs should stay in the mid to upper 70s. More clouds move in from the west by Saturday and especially Sunday, keeping overnight lows a few degrees warmer.
  • Monday into Tuesday: Most forecast models bring a cold front through, with cooler temperatures and a slight chance of rain (15% to 20%). How much cooler is still the main question.

How sure forecasters were

Forecasters expect the warm, dry weather through the weekend. The main uncertainty is how much colder it gets Monday and Tuesday: one forecast tool's middle range for highs at MCI is 63 to 73 degrees Monday and 58 to 73 degrees Tuesday.

Read the NWS wording
Clear skies and light winds will continue through the remainder
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
the lower 50s across most of the CWA
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow afternoon, with clear
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
skies and nearly calm winds continuing.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
Afternoon high temps should remain in the mid to upper 70s for Friday through Sunday, although the increased cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
This should help generate some increased cloud cover moving in from the west by Saturday and especially Sunday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
The main question at this time is just how much colder will temperatures be, as the most recent NBM run shows the 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT on Monday at MCI as 63 and 73 degrees, respectively, and 58 and 73 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21

What to watch

The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.

Why the forecast might change

  • Monday and Tuesday temperatures depend on how much colder air arrives behind the cold front; the range at MCI runs from 63 to 73 degrees Monday and 58 to 73 degrees Tuesday. (Whole area (temperature figures given for MCI))
Read the NWS wording
The main question at this time is just how much colder will temperatures be, as the most recent NBM run shows the 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT on Monday at MCI as 63 and 73 degrees, respectively, and 58 and 73 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21

What changed from the discussion before

  • Rain chances for Monday were lowered: the earlier discussion gave a 20-50% chance Monday; now it is a slight chance (15% to 20%) Monday into Tuesday.
  • Friday and Saturday highs were trimmed slightly: earlier mid 70s to near 80, now mid to upper 70s.
Read the NWS wording
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Afternoon high temps should remain in the mid to upper 70s for Friday through Sunday, although the increased cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
coupled with modest WAA. This will aid in highs rising into the mid
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:55 p.m. Wed Oct 21
70 to near 80.
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:55 p.m. Wed Oct 21

Where the NWS text was unclear

  • The Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued earlier, still says rain chances return Monday at 20-50%, while the latest discussion gives only a 15% to 20% chance Monday into Tuesday.
Read the NWS wording
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21

The numbers then

Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.