Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters expect the warm, dry weather through the weekend. The main uncertainty is how much colder it gets Monday and Tuesday: one forecast tool's middle range for highs at MCI is 63 to 73 degrees Monday and 58 to 73 degrees Tuesday.
Clear skies and light winds will continue through the remainderNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
the lower 50s across most of the CWANWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow afternoon, with clearNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
skies and nearly calm winds continuing.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
Afternoon high temps should remain in the mid to upper 70s for Friday through Sunday, although the increased cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
This should help generate some increased cloud cover moving in from the west by Saturday and especially Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
The main question at this time is just how much colder will temperatures be, as the most recent NBM run shows the 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT on Monday at MCI as 63 and 73 degrees, respectively, and 58 and 73 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
The main question at this time is just how much colder will temperatures be, as the most recent NBM run shows the 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT on Monday at MCI as 63 and 73 degrees, respectively, and 58 and 73 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Afternoon high temps should remain in the mid to upper 70s for Friday through Sunday, although the increased cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
coupled with modest WAA. This will aid in highs rising into the midNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:55 p.m. Wed Oct 21
70 to near 80.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:55 p.m. Wed Oct 21
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:53 p.m. Wed Oct 21
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:56 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters say warm, dry weather is "expected" through the weekend and that Monday "now looks" dry. They note the incoming storm system has kept slowing down, as is typical for this kind of system.
Quite and mild conditions will continue todayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
highs rising into the mid 70s to near 80NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
will push highs into the mid 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
This will keep highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Sunday, conditions will be similarNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
will keep highs in the mid 70s to near 80NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Monday night, the now progressive upper level trough finally moves into the eastern Plains and forces the cold front into the area bringing the next chance for precipitation.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
The upper level trough will move through the region Tuesday continuing shower chances and return temperatures to near normal with highs in the 60s .NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Surface high pressure moves into the area behind this system on Tuesday night into Wednesday with above normal highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
As has been the model trend he past several days and is typical with closed upper level systems, the upper level trough over the eastern Rockies continues to slow its eastward progression.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
The NWS discussion didn't flag anything.
As has been the model trend he past several days and is typical with closed upper level systems, the upper level trough over the eastern Rockies continues to slow its eastward progression.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Oct 21
will push highs into the mid 70s to lower 80sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
This will keep highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
will keep highs in the mid 70s to near 80NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Afternoon high temps should remain in the mid to upper 70s for Friday through Sunday, although the increased cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 11:36 p.m. Wed Oct 21
- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 21
Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:56 a.m. Thu Oct 22
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:46 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22.
How sure forecasters were
Rain chances for Monday into Tuesday are fairly low, and it is uncertain how far south and east the rain-making conditions will reach. For late next week, a lot can change. Widespread hazardous weather is considered low probability through Wednesday.
- Above seasonal average temperatures continue.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 70sNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
to near 80 for most.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
This slows the movements of a trough to the east and sets up the axis of flow west of our region keeping passing storm systems to the west and north.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
As the Pacific NW low makes its way further inland it ushers the previous stationary low that over the Four Corners region eastward bringing with it chances for showers and storms Monday evening moreso early Tuesday morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
General cool down expected starting next Tuesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Looking at the extended, these previously mentioned waves open up the pattern fairly significantly.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
This turns highs back down toward seasonal averages, yet still above, around 65-70 degrees (average = 62).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Pockets of ascent are likely as upper level CVA compliments the low level kinematics of the cold front; however, there remains uncertainty how far south and east that environment propagates.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Thu Oct 22
If rain develops and spreads, there could be isolated heavy downpours, mainly from the I-35 corridor northwest, but not as intense or widespread as about a month ago.
If rain is able to develop and expand, PWAT vales around an inch present opportunities for isolated heavy downpours, but not as intense or expansive as we saw about a month ago.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Pockets of ascent are likely as upper level CVA compliments the low level kinematics of the cold front; however, there remains uncertainty how far south and east that environment propagates.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Models have been fairly conservative in propagating precipitation chances eastward.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
The question would be if the front is able to kinematically force ascent to develop showers and storms.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Even though multiple days of warm air advection would make one think that the atmosphere would be primed for convective activity, general subsidence from a low to midlevel high across the eastern seaboard expanding westward yields a fairly stable environment ahead of the low's passing.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:38 p.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Thu Oct 22
It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
As the Pacific NW low makes its way further inland it ushers the previous stationary low that over the Four Corners region eastward bringing with it chances for showers and storms Monday evening moreso early Tuesday morning.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:46 p.m. Thu Oct 22
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.