- Above seasonal average temperatures continue.

high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 70s

to near 80 for most.

This slows the movements of a trough to the east and sets up the axis of flow west of our region keeping passing storm systems to the west and north.

- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).

As the Pacific NW low makes its way further inland it ushers the previous stationary low that over the Four Corners region eastward bringing with it chances for showers and storms Monday evening moreso early Tuesday morning.

Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest.

General cool down expected starting next Tuesday.

Looking at the extended, these previously mentioned waves open up the pattern fairly significantly.

This turns highs back down toward seasonal averages, yet still above, around 65-70 degrees (average = 62).

It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.

Pockets of ascent are likely as upper level CVA compliments the low level kinematics of the cold front; however, there remains uncertainty how far south and east that environment propagates.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

If rain is able to develop and expand, PWAT vales around an inch present opportunities for isolated heavy downpours, but not as intense or expansive as we saw about a month ago.

Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest.

Pockets of ascent are likely as upper level CVA compliments the low level kinematics of the cold front; however, there remains uncertainty how far south and east that environment propagates.

Models have been fairly conservative in propagating precipitation chances eastward.

The question would be if the front is able to kinematically force ascent to develop showers and storms.

Even though multiple days of warm air advection would make one think that the atmosphere would be primed for convective activity, general subsidence from a low to midlevel high across the eastern seaboard expanding westward yields a fairly stable environment ahead of the low's passing.

It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.

- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).

Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s.

- Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night.

It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.

- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).

As the Pacific NW low makes its way further inland it ushers the previous stationary low that over the Four Corners region eastward bringing with it chances for showers and storms Monday evening moreso early Tuesday morning.

Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest.

With broad surface high pressure remaining over the eastern CONUS, all of this is to say that dry conditions and southerly winds remain through the weekend.

With little change in mixing depth, wind speeds, or 925-850mb temps, expect highs to be quite similar to yesterday... mid to upper 70s for most and a few touching 80.

Of which would be upwards of 10-15+ deg above normal.

Generally expect temperatures to remain above normal but likely a few degrees cooler than the weekend, in the low to mid 70s, with an uptick in cloud cover and slightly cooler 925- 850mb temps.

The existing mid-level ridge will continue to keep conditions on the dry side as it deflects western CONUS cutoff low (becoming an open wave).

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

The more southerly path of this trough will more substantially flatten the ridge and bring about an outside shot at some light precipitation over far W/NW areas of the CWA as early as Monday evening.

Given the pre-existing very dry air mass, it would likely take a notable southerly/easterly trend in the trough path to see measurable precipitation chances.

The 'strongest' takeaways over the latter half of the work week would be best chances for cooling temperatures, and increasing precipitation chances.

- Widespread precipitation chances difficult to come by until at least the middle of next week.

Difficult to pin down much in the way of confidence in any frontal or precipitation timing.

To start the work week, confidence in the broad pattern evolution remains high within GEFS/ECMWF ENS.

Given the pre-existing very dry air mass, it would likely take a notable southerly/easterly trend in the trough path to see measurable precipitation chances. Generally expect temperatures to remain above normal but likely a few degrees cooler than the weekend, in the low to mid 70s, with an uptick in cloud cover and slightly cooler 925- 850mb temps. Deterministic and ensemble guidance both begin to diverge more significantly mid-late week, primarily differing in their handling of a series of northern stream shortwaves and larger troughs/cutoff lows. Difficult to pin down much in the way of confidence in any frontal or precipitation timing.

Given the pre-existing very dry air mass, it would likely take a notable southerly/easterly trend in the trough path to see measurable precipitation chances.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance both begin to diverge more significantly mid-late week, primarily differing in their handling of a series of northern stream shortwaves and larger troughs/cutoff lows.

Difficult to pin down much in the way of confidence in any frontal or precipitation timing.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).

The more southerly path of this trough will more substantially flatten the ridge and bring about an outside shot at some light precipitation over far W/NW areas of the CWA as early as Monday evening.

As the Pacific NW low makes its way further inland it ushers the previous stationary low that over the Four Corners region eastward bringing with it chances for showers and storms Monday evening moreso early Tuesday morning.

- Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

For the next few days, above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots touching 80 degrees.

Winds will probably be the most interesting weather variable of the day as diurnal mixing will mix swifter flowing 850 flow down to the surface; however, the peak of the 850mb flow resides over central KS extending into eastern NE and western IA; therefore, gusts (around 20-25 MPH) will likely be concentrated to areas along and west of the I-35 to I-49 corridors.

- Dry and warm conditions continue through the weekend.

The end result is a cutoff of midlevel flow yielding a warm and dry weekend with less gusty winds.

Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest.

Dry and stable air ahead of the front look to win out lowering the chances of rain across the region.

Temperatures fluctuate next week trending cooler toward the end of next week.

High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.

Additional chances for rain arrive late next week.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

Many models have been using this as a focus for shower and storm development; however, at this time scale models usually broad brush precipitation potential.

Deterministic model guidance suggests the southern part of the western trough developing into a cut off low over the four corners region Sunday.

This could further the ongoing storms across that region and play a significant role in the weather picture for later next week.

There is some skepticism as its imminent formation is not fully clear on water vapor satellite imagery, but it is more likely to manifest itself towards sunrise Saturday.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

- Precipitation chances next Monday into Tuesday are trending lower.

Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

The 'strongest' takeaways over the latter half of the work week would be best chances for cooling temperatures, and increasing precipitation chances.

- Precipitation chances next Monday into Tuesday are trending lower.

Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.

For the next few days, above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots touching 80 degrees.

The end result is a cutoff of midlevel flow yielding a warm and dry weekend with less gusty winds.

Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest.

Dry and stable air ahead of the front look to win out lowering the chances of rain across the region.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

However, this does not mean the colder air would be held off.

High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.

Temperatures fluctuate next week trending cooler toward the end of next week.

Looking at the extended forecast, guidance suggest further waves moving across the region with a slow moving synoptic scale cold front expected to drape across the central part of the country toward the end of next week.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

Many models have been using this as a focus for shower and storm development; however, at this time scale models usually broad brush precipitation potential.

There is some skepticism as its imminent formation is not fully clear on water vapor satellite imagery, but it is more likely to manifest itself towards sunrise Saturday.

Deterministic model guidance suggests the southern part of the western trough developing into a cut off low over the four corners region Sunday.

This could further the ongoing storms across that region and play a significant role in the weather picture for later next week.

The primary influence this system would have is enabling development of showers and storms along a synoptic front anticipated to develop from west Texas through the northern Great Lakes.

This front will be competing against the large high across the eastern CONUS mentioned earlier.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.