For the next few days, above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots touching 80 degrees.

The end result is a cutoff of midlevel flow yielding a warm and dry weekend with less gusty winds.

Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest.

Dry and stable air ahead of the front look to win out lowering the chances of rain across the region.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

However, this does not mean the colder air would be held off.

High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.

Temperatures fluctuate next week trending cooler toward the end of next week.

Looking at the extended forecast, guidance suggest further waves moving across the region with a slow moving synoptic scale cold front expected to drape across the central part of the country toward the end of next week.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

Many models have been using this as a focus for shower and storm development; however, at this time scale models usually broad brush precipitation potential.

There is some skepticism as its imminent formation is not fully clear on water vapor satellite imagery, but it is more likely to manifest itself towards sunrise Saturday.

Deterministic model guidance suggests the southern part of the western trough developing into a cut off low over the four corners region Sunday.

This could further the ongoing storms across that region and play a significant role in the weather picture for later next week.

The primary influence this system would have is enabling development of showers and storms along a synoptic front anticipated to develop from west Texas through the northern Great Lakes.

This front will be competing against the large high across the eastern CONUS mentioned earlier.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.

All to say, expect more of the same quiet, dry, and seasonally warm conditions.

Highs predominantly in the upper 70s to low 80s and southerly prevailing winds.

This also will continue the seasonally warm conditions, albeit likely a couple degrees cooler with an uptick in cloud cover for at least western portions of the CWA.

Model trends continue to push the best lift and surface features W and NW of the area, resulting in the continued drying trend for PoPs originally over NE Kansas and NW Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.

- Precipitation chances continue to trend drier (<20 percent) Monday/Tuesday.

A depicted shortwave Tuesday is most poised to result in increasing cloud cover and highs falling into the lower 70s before rebounding some Wednesday and Thursday.

Additional chances (15-30 percent) at times Wednesday/Thursday, but best chances (>35-40 percent) may hold off until Friday/next weekend.

Meteograms suggest that even if the boundary finds itself over the area, precipitation amounts would be light.

Temperatures fluctuate some during the week, with more notable cooling likely by late week.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement in the overall progression of these features, which will eventually result in a surface boundary draped over portions of the central to northern Plains, but north of the CWA.

By this point, ensemble guidance begins to diverge more notably, attempting to resolve surface boundary location and any subsequent precip potential.

By this point, ensemble guidance begins to diverge more notably, attempting to resolve surface boundary location and any subsequent precip potential.

This is readily noted via NBM 25th/75th MaxT spreads jumping from only 3-4 deg F on Wednesday to 9-12 deg F Thursday.

The best chances for appreciable and widespread precipitation continues to get pushed back toward next weekend.

Additional chances for rain arrive late next week.

Additional chances (15-30 percent) at times Wednesday/Thursday, but best chances (>35-40 percent) may hold off until Friday/next weekend.

Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

- Precipitation chances continue to trend drier (<20 percent) Monday/Tuesday.

Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest.

- Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25 percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

- Precipitation chances continue to trend drier (<20 percent) Monday/Tuesday.

- Warm and dry through the weekend.

pushes highs toward 80 degrees for most of the area

well above seasonal expectations of 64F

Most sounding analysis has lifted condensation levels around 7000ft and ceilings or where the air is much closer to saturation around 20,000ft making short term PoPs pretty much zero.

This lowers high temperatures slightly on Tuesday to the low 70s while shortwave perturbations build up across Rockies.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

As the front wraps around eastern Nebraska into Iowa much of the precipitation potential looks limited to far NW MO.

This also works to bump our high temperatures Wednesday back to the mid-70s.

This deflects systems northward, but does keep low PoP chances across NW MO Wednesday as they pass by the area.

All of this combined with the dry air in place across our area results in relatively low precipitation chances (10-20%) Tuesday through Thursday, mainly during the morning hours.

This pattern looks to keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend.

Temperatures trend cooler by the end of next week.

This does increase confidence and reduce uncertainties, but does not eliminate them.

The lack of significant temperature gradients, moisture boundaries, and instability, do not promote much confidence in precipitation potential.

uncertainty remains fairly high with the spatial extent of

Uncertainty is likely to narrow as the pattern more firmly establishes itself Monday and Tuesday.

Many uncertainties remain with this solution as it is heavily dependent on the locations of the front and pressure perturbations.

Furthermore, referring to the sounding analysis mentioned earlier, any precipitation development will have to overcome a fairly deep 5000ft dry layer before reaching the surface.

However, those are not enough confidence nudgers to say there will not be rain, it just has many challenges.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

Additional chances (15-30 percent) at times Wednesday/Thursday, but best chances (>35-40 percent) may hold off until Friday/next weekend.

As the front wraps around eastern Nebraska into Iowa much of the precipitation potential looks limited to far NW MO.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

All of this combined with the dry air in place across our area results in relatively low precipitation chances (10-20%) Tuesday through Thursday, mainly during the morning hours.