- Warm and dry through the weekend.

pushes highs toward 80 degrees for most of the area

well above seasonal expectations of 64F

Most sounding analysis has lifted condensation levels around 7000ft and ceilings or where the air is much closer to saturation around 20,000ft making short term PoPs pretty much zero.

This lowers high temperatures slightly on Tuesday to the low 70s while shortwave perturbations build up across Rockies.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

As the front wraps around eastern Nebraska into Iowa much of the precipitation potential looks limited to far NW MO.

This also works to bump our high temperatures Wednesday back to the mid-70s.

This deflects systems northward, but does keep low PoP chances across NW MO Wednesday as they pass by the area.

All of this combined with the dry air in place across our area results in relatively low precipitation chances (10-20%) Tuesday through Thursday, mainly during the morning hours.

This pattern looks to keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend.

Temperatures trend cooler by the end of next week.

This does increase confidence and reduce uncertainties, but does not eliminate them.

The lack of significant temperature gradients, moisture boundaries, and instability, do not promote much confidence in precipitation potential.

uncertainty remains fairly high with the spatial extent of

Uncertainty is likely to narrow as the pattern more firmly establishes itself Monday and Tuesday.

Many uncertainties remain with this solution as it is heavily dependent on the locations of the front and pressure perturbations.

Furthermore, referring to the sounding analysis mentioned earlier, any precipitation development will have to overcome a fairly deep 5000ft dry layer before reaching the surface.

However, those are not enough confidence nudgers to say there will not be rain, it just has many challenges.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

Additional chances (15-30 percent) at times Wednesday/Thursday, but best chances (>35-40 percent) may hold off until Friday/next weekend.

As the front wraps around eastern Nebraska into Iowa much of the precipitation potential looks limited to far NW MO.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

All of this combined with the dry air in place across our area results in relatively low precipitation chances (10-20%) Tuesday through Thursday, mainly during the morning hours.

For today, that means yet another rinse and repeat day for the most part with temperatures again well above seasonal norms and in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Winds will be lighter than previous days given the position of the surface high, and high level cloud cover will continue to drift across the region.

The work-week starts out much the same, albeit likely a couple degrees cooler as 925-850mb temps are expected to come down from around 13 deg C to 11 deg C.

Model trends continue to push best large scale lift and thus precipitation chances W/NW of the area, yielding no mentionable PoPs through Monday evening.

NBM did populate with some low (<25 percent) PoPs at times Tuesday, mainly over W/NW areas of the CWA, but have left them in place as some light rain cannot be completely ruled out.

Wednesday sees steeper lapse rates and some increasing low-level moisture helping yield some instability, but the lack of a lifting mechanism and cap should keep the area dry through the day.

Near/along that boundary will be the best opportunity for any precipitation, and is reflected in 25-50 percent PoPs mainly over northern areas of the CWA Wednesday evening/overnight.

Prevailing sentiment among ensemble guidance keeps best chances primarily over northern half of the area.

Temperatures at least partially hinge on cloud cover and precipitation chances, but prevailing ensemble solutions point to ongoing seasonably warm conditions well into the 70s.

Given timing differences in shortwave arrivals, result tends to be broad/area-wide 30-60 percent PoPs moving in late Friday and through the weekend.

Inevitably, it will not rain that entire time, but a wait and see as shortwave timing gets resolved in coming days.

Unfortunately, this also potentially means a soggy Halloween across the area.

Temperatures likely cool during this time frame as well, but uncertainty in shortwave / potential precip timing yields MaxT 25th/75th temp spreads approaching 7 to 10+ deg F.

By Wednesday night, question becomes just how far southward a synoptic front is able to progress.

The QPF may be a bit generous as lift is concentrated above 700mb and in an environment with lackluster lapse rates / no instability and a dry sub-cloud layer.

By Wednesday night, question becomes just how far southward a synoptic front is able to progress.

Temperatures at least partially hinge on cloud cover and precipitation chances, but prevailing ensemble solutions point to ongoing seasonably warm conditions well into the 70s.

Inevitably, it will not rain that entire time, but a wait and see as shortwave timing gets resolved in coming days.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); highest potential late week into next weekend (30-60% chances).

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); higher potential late week (40-60% chances).

Near/along that boundary will be the best opportunity for any precipitation, and is reflected in 25-50 percent PoPs mainly over northern areas of the CWA Wednesday evening/overnight.

This deflects systems northward, but does keep low PoP chances across NW MO Wednesday as they pass by the area.

All of this combined with the dry air in place across our area results in relatively low precipitation chances (10-20%) Tuesday through Thursday, mainly during the morning hours.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); highest potential late week into next weekend (30-60% chances).

Near/along that boundary will be the best opportunity for any precipitation, and is reflected in 25-50 percent PoPs mainly over northern areas of the CWA Wednesday evening/overnight.

- Warm and dry through the weekend.

Given timing differences in shortwave arrivals, result tends to be broad/area-wide 30-60 percent PoPs moving in late Friday and through the weekend.

Forecast highs on Monday are in the upper 70s, about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday.

and potentially a thunderstorm or two, look possible during the day

across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

measurable rainfall is about 20-30%.

still very low and generally less than 10%.

Temperatures drop off slightly on Tuesday with the shortwave and associated cloud cover and precipitation chances moving into the area through the day.

For the middle part of the work week, while the ridging remains mostly situated southeast of the region, persistent southerly flow around the ridging/ surface high to our southeast, will maintain warm advection across the Southern and Central Plains.

So it looks likely we'll see highs rebound back into the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s, about 15-20 degrees above normal.

Thursday, a front sags southward into the area, pushed southward by a shortwave tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Late in the week, precipitation chances start to increase, with scattered to widespread rainfall by Saturday.

- Scattered to widespread showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, Friday through Sunday.

With broad upper forcing, the boundary in the area, and moisture available, we should see scattered to widespread showers Friday night into Saturday.

Right now, it looks like a 40-60% chance for rain from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with decreasing chances after midnight.

So umbrellas may be needed for anyone outside during that time frame.

- Above normal temperatures through the week, but trending closer to normal for the weekend.

For the Kansas City area, normal high temperatures range from 63 on Monday, to 60 by Sunday.

Still, though it looks like we'll see scattered to widespread precipitation, rain amounts look relatively low through the weekend.

For the 48 hour period ending at 6 am Sunday morning, there is roughly a 1 in 3 (30-35%) chance for rain amounts exceeding 1 inch and just over a coin flip (50-60%) for exceeding half an inch.

it's more than likely just going to be showers

moving through, if there is any precipitation.

this shortwave may be enough to wring out the marginal moisture available to the system.

For the weekend, a series of waves moves through the area, with front still in the vicinity.

That front interacts with increasing moisture from the persistent southerly flow to give us our increasing precipitation chances.

- Scattered to widespread showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, Friday through Sunday.

and potentially a thunderstorm or two, look possible during the day

across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

still very low and generally less than 10%.

Rounding out the work week and into the weekend, conditions become more active, at least primed for precipitation/showers.

The QPF may be a bit generous as lift is concentrated above 700mb and in an environment with lackluster lapse rates / no instability and a dry sub-cloud layer.

measurable rainfall is about 20-30%.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); highest potential late week into next weekend (30-60% chances).

NBM did populate with some low (<25 percent) PoPs at times Tuesday, mainly over W/NW areas of the CWA, but have left them in place as some light rain cannot be completely ruled out.

For the 48 hour period ending at 6 am Sunday morning, there is roughly a 1 in 3 (30-35%) chance for rain amounts exceeding 1 inch and just over a coin flip (50-60%) for exceeding half an inch.

For the middle part of the work week, while the ridging remains mostly situated southeast of the region, persistent southerly flow around the ridging/ surface high to our southeast, will maintain warm advection across the Southern and Central Plains.