Forecast highs on Monday are in the upper 70s, about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday.

and potentially a thunderstorm or two, look possible during the day

across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

measurable rainfall is about 20-30%.

still very low and generally less than 10%.

Temperatures drop off slightly on Tuesday with the shortwave and associated cloud cover and precipitation chances moving into the area through the day.

For the middle part of the work week, while the ridging remains mostly situated southeast of the region, persistent southerly flow around the ridging/ surface high to our southeast, will maintain warm advection across the Southern and Central Plains.

So it looks likely we'll see highs rebound back into the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s, about 15-20 degrees above normal.

Thursday, a front sags southward into the area, pushed southward by a shortwave tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Late in the week, precipitation chances start to increase, with scattered to widespread rainfall by Saturday.

- Scattered to widespread showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, Friday through Sunday.

With broad upper forcing, the boundary in the area, and moisture available, we should see scattered to widespread showers Friday night into Saturday.

Right now, it looks like a 40-60% chance for rain from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with decreasing chances after midnight.

So umbrellas may be needed for anyone outside during that time frame.

- Above normal temperatures through the week, but trending closer to normal for the weekend.

For the Kansas City area, normal high temperatures range from 63 on Monday, to 60 by Sunday.

Still, though it looks like we'll see scattered to widespread precipitation, rain amounts look relatively low through the weekend.

For the 48 hour period ending at 6 am Sunday morning, there is roughly a 1 in 3 (30-35%) chance for rain amounts exceeding 1 inch and just over a coin flip (50-60%) for exceeding half an inch.

it's more than likely just going to be showers

moving through, if there is any precipitation.

this shortwave may be enough to wring out the marginal moisture available to the system.

For the weekend, a series of waves moves through the area, with front still in the vicinity.

That front interacts with increasing moisture from the persistent southerly flow to give us our increasing precipitation chances.

- Scattered to widespread showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, Friday through Sunday.

and potentially a thunderstorm or two, look possible during the day

across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

still very low and generally less than 10%.

Rounding out the work week and into the weekend, conditions become more active, at least primed for precipitation/showers.

The QPF may be a bit generous as lift is concentrated above 700mb and in an environment with lackluster lapse rates / no instability and a dry sub-cloud layer.

measurable rainfall is about 20-30%.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); highest potential late week into next weekend (30-60% chances).

NBM did populate with some low (<25 percent) PoPs at times Tuesday, mainly over W/NW areas of the CWA, but have left them in place as some light rain cannot be completely ruled out.

For the 48 hour period ending at 6 am Sunday morning, there is roughly a 1 in 3 (30-35%) chance for rain amounts exceeding 1 inch and just over a coin flip (50-60%) for exceeding half an inch.

For the middle part of the work week, while the ridging remains mostly situated southeast of the region, persistent southerly flow around the ridging/ surface high to our southeast, will maintain warm advection across the Southern and Central Plains.

south/southwesterly winds will continue to contribute to daytime highs in the high 70s for today.

By Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a shortwave will lift over the Central Plains along the periphery of the ridge, and bring with it a narrow corridor of moisture.

This will work to moisten a relatively dry vertical profile, and bring chances (15-30%) of rain.

With the location of the boundary remaining just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the early half of Tuesday.

Greater cloud debris and precipitation potential will mitigate high temperatures for Tuesday, bringing them closer to average at around the low/mid 70s.

Another opportunity for precipitation will come late Tuesday night, with a more vigorous shortwave lifting from the Southern Plains across central MO.

Precipitation potential looks to be primarily driven by synoptic ascent from dCVA and the LLJ tapping into residual moisture in the low to mid-levels, keeping chances (15-30%) around through Wednesday morning.

With gradual clearing of precipitation, temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day on Wednesday.

An enhanced pressure gradient that develops with a strong surface high over the northeastern CONUS and a weak cyclone developing off the lee of the Rockies will bring southerly winds up on Wednesday to ~15-20 mph.

By Wednesday evening, yet another opportunity for precipitation arises with a cold frontal boundary draping down across the north- central CONUS.

Precipitation chances remain confined to the location of the boundary through the night, with northern MO seeing the highest chances (50-70%) of precipitation Wednesday evening.

- Wet pattern continues through the remainder of the week into early next week.

Guidance remains in pretty good agreement for precipitation chances continuing through the latter half of the week with continued disturbances in the upper-level flow, which isn't great news for those who prefer treats over tricks...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the week, before cooling down by the weekend.

Something to look forward to is temperatures cooling off by the end of the forecast period, with strong warm flow cut off to the south and greater east/southeasterly flow.

Precipitation chances remain confined to the location of the boundary through the night, with northern MO seeing the highest chances (50-70%) of precipitation Wednesday evening. Guidance remains in pretty good agreement for precipitation chances continuing through the latter half of the week with continued disturbances in the upper-level flow, which isn't great news for those who prefer treats over tricks... Something to look forward to is temperatures cooling off by the end of the forecast period, with strong warm flow cut off to the south and greater east/southeasterly flow. However, at this point in the forecast, greater deviations in guidance arise with the synoptic pattern.

Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe potential with any activity that develops.

However, with this kind of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe potential.

However, with this kind of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe potential.

However, at this point in the forecast, greater deviations in guidance arise with the synoptic pattern.

So, as much as cooler temperatures sound great right about now, trends will continue to be monitored in the long term to see if this solution becomes more apparent.

Precipitation chances remain confined to the location of the boundary through the night, with northern MO seeing the highest chances (50-70%) of precipitation Wednesday evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday.

With gradual clearing of precipitation, temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day on Wednesday.

So it looks likely we'll see highs rebound back into the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s, about 15-20 degrees above normal.

This will work to moisten a relatively dry vertical profile, and bring chances (15-30%) of rain.

With the location of the boundary remaining just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the early half of Tuesday.

during the day across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

The potential for measurable rainfall is about 20-30%.

still very low and generally less than 10%.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); highest potential late week into next weekend (30-60% chances).

Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe potential with any activity that develops.

- Wet pattern continues through the remainder of the week into early next week.

- Isolated - scattered (15-30%) showers tonight - tomorrow morning for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

lead to isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few

thunderstorms, across eastern/ northeastern Kansas and

the chances for any storms is quite low

So the general expectation is for be just showers.

also lead to a brief cool down (though still above normal) in

Temperatures rebound Wednesday through Friday as persistent southerly flow allows temperatures to climb back into the upper 70s to potentially near 80 degrees.

With normal highs in the lower 60s for the Kansas City area, we should be 15 to as much as 20 degrees above normal.

- Scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and a few storms, mainly for northern Missouri Wednesday into the weekend.

For now, the most probable scenario is for precipitation to occur across northern Missouri, in the vicinity of the boundary, with areas south of that boundary to climb one again into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

A similar scenario plays out Friday, with the most likely areas to see precipitation across northern Missouri/ northeastern Kansas, and south of that climb into the upper 70s.

For Saturday, the best chances for precipitation look earlier than in previous forecasts as the shortwave moves over the area earlier.

This results in decreasing PoPs by the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

While temperatures trend cooler for the weekend, we may still be 10 degrees above normal Saturday - Monday.

There is some uncertainty regarding this, however.

That's a possibility (~<25% of occurrence), just not as probable as what's already been mentioned.

A frontal boundary may slide south through the area leading to increased precipitation chances and cooler (though still above normal) temperatures.

If precipitation occurs further south, that would limit just how warm much of the forecast area gets.

That's a possibility (~<25% of occurrence), just not as probable as what's already been mentioned.

- Scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and a few storms, mainly for northern Missouri Wednesday into the weekend.

Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe potential with any activity that develops.

However, with this kind of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe potential.

For Saturday, the best chances for precipitation look earlier than in previous forecasts as the shortwave moves over the area earlier.

This results in decreasing PoPs by the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Temperatures rebound Wednesday through Friday as persistent southerly flow allows temperatures to climb back into the upper 70s to potentially near 80 degrees.

For now, the most probable scenario is for precipitation to occur across northern Missouri, in the vicinity of the boundary, with areas south of that boundary to climb one again into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

With gradual clearing of precipitation, temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day on Wednesday.

thunderstorms, across eastern/ northeastern Kansas and

- Isolated - scattered (15-30%) showers tonight - tomorrow morning for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

With the location of the boundary remaining just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the early half of Tuesday.

- Chances (15-30%) for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday, with greater chances (50-70%) Wednesday evening across northern MO.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

also lead to a brief cool down (though still above normal) in