- Isolated - scattered (15-30%) showers tonight - tomorrow morning for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

lead to isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few

thunderstorms, across eastern/ northeastern Kansas and

the chances for any storms is quite low

So the general expectation is for be just showers.

also lead to a brief cool down (though still above normal) in

Temperatures rebound Wednesday through Friday as persistent southerly flow allows temperatures to climb back into the upper 70s to potentially near 80 degrees.

With normal highs in the lower 60s for the Kansas City area, we should be 15 to as much as 20 degrees above normal.

- Scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and a few storms, mainly for northern Missouri Wednesday into the weekend.

For now, the most probable scenario is for precipitation to occur across northern Missouri, in the vicinity of the boundary, with areas south of that boundary to climb one again into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

A similar scenario plays out Friday, with the most likely areas to see precipitation across northern Missouri/ northeastern Kansas, and south of that climb into the upper 70s.

For Saturday, the best chances for precipitation look earlier than in previous forecasts as the shortwave moves over the area earlier.

This results in decreasing PoPs by the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

While temperatures trend cooler for the weekend, we may still be 10 degrees above normal Saturday - Monday.

There is some uncertainty regarding this, however.

That's a possibility (~<25% of occurrence), just not as probable as what's already been mentioned.

A frontal boundary may slide south through the area leading to increased precipitation chances and cooler (though still above normal) temperatures.

If precipitation occurs further south, that would limit just how warm much of the forecast area gets.

That's a possibility (~<25% of occurrence), just not as probable as what's already been mentioned.

- Scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and a few storms, mainly for northern Missouri Wednesday into the weekend.

Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe potential with any activity that develops.

However, with this kind of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe potential.

For Saturday, the best chances for precipitation look earlier than in previous forecasts as the shortwave moves over the area earlier.

This results in decreasing PoPs by the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Temperatures rebound Wednesday through Friday as persistent southerly flow allows temperatures to climb back into the upper 70s to potentially near 80 degrees.

For now, the most probable scenario is for precipitation to occur across northern Missouri, in the vicinity of the boundary, with areas south of that boundary to climb one again into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

With gradual clearing of precipitation, temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day on Wednesday.

thunderstorms, across eastern/ northeastern Kansas and

- Isolated - scattered (15-30%) showers tonight - tomorrow morning for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

With the location of the boundary remaining just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the early half of Tuesday.

- Chances (15-30%) for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday, with greater chances (50-70%) Wednesday evening across northern MO.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

also lead to a brief cool down (though still above normal) in

- Low chances (15-30%) for rain this morning and evening, with a brief cooldown in temperatures to the low 70s.

intersecting far NW MO

opportunities for some localized gusts through the early morning.

A developing shortwave off the Rockies will enhance low-level WAA and broad synoptic ascent from a strengthening LLJ, boosting additional low-end chances (10-20%) for precipitation overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

The greatest chances reside over eastern KS/western MO with this activity, following the thermal ridge axis and the nose of the LLJ.

As the shortwave lifts along the periphery of the ridge to the northeast, enhanced low-level WAA from strong south/southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise back into the high 70s/low 80s across the forecast area during the daytime.

- Showers/storms anticipated (50-70%) across northern MO by Wednesday evening.

Severe threat remains low with any activity.

As the cold front sags to the south, chances (15-30%) for precipitation continue along that boundary through Thursday.

However, with a lack of significant synoptic forcing out ahead of the boundary, chances will look to decrease during the daytime.

Temperatures behind the front cool back down to the low 70s, with areas out ahead of the front remaining warmer in the high 70s/low 80s.

Weak ascent and WAA over the boundary will increase precipitation chances (40-60%) yet again late Thursday/Friday, primarily across northern MO.

An upper trough lifting from the southern Plains will keep precipitation chances around Friday into Saturday, with temperatures trending down to the high 60s/low 70s by the start of the weekend.

Increasing model divergence by the weekend leaves some details a bit fuzzy at this time, but greater agreement exists on weather drying out by late weekend with a brief bout of amplified ridging at the synoptic level before a deep trough pushes eastward by early next week, increasing PoPs to close out the forecast period.

- Wet, cool pattern continues through the end of the forecast period.

- Showers/storms anticipated (50-70%) across northern MO by Wednesday evening.

If showers/storms do initiate, they look to remain elevated through the overnight period, with primary hazards of strong wind and hail earlier in the period from steepening lapse rates out ahead of the cold front.

However, overall severe expectations continue to remain lower with this activity.

Of course, with the prospect of any front that moves over our forecast area, there could be some variation still in where exactly temperatures will cool versus stay warm during the day Thursday.

An additional caveat will be the presence of any precipitation, as that will additionally influence temperatures during the daytime.

As of right now, some signal in temperature spread exists around the US- 36/I-70 corridors through the LREF and NBM (~4-6 degF spread), indicating there is some variability in current guidance that could be better resolved in the coming days.

intersecting far NW MO

this area still contains a stout layer of dry air near the surface

this narrow corridor of precipitation will really need to work to moisten the near surface layer before drizzle/light rain can manifest for these areas

Temperatures cool back down to the low 70s by Saturday.

- Wet, cool pattern continues through the end of the forecast period.

While temperatures trend cooler for the weekend, we may still be 10 degrees above normal Saturday - Monday.

- Above normal temperatures forecast through the next week.

- Low chances (15-30%) for rain this morning and evening, with a brief cooldown in temperatures to the low 70s.

A developing shortwave off the Rockies will enhance low-level WAA and broad synoptic ascent from a strengthening LLJ, boosting additional low-end chances (10-20%) for precipitation overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

- 15-20% chances of showers and thunderstorms return late tonight into tomorrow morning, with breezy south winds through the day Wednesday.

chances of showers and thunderstorms across all but far

southeast counties between midnight tonight through 9am

South winds will increase Wednesday morning to

10-20mph, with afternoon gusts of 25-30mph.

The warmest period will be tonight through Friday with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees, and highs in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.

Well above normal temperatures will continue for the next week.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

The model blend produces good chances (35-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday evening, with similar chances returning late Sunday night through Tuesday.

Several disturbances/boundaries will continue to move near or into the forecast area Friday, through the weekend and even into next week.

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

Clouds, precipitation, and eventually northeast to easterly winds, will brings highs down into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, with lows remaining in the 50s.

- Shower and storm chances Thursday night through Saturday evening and again early next week will range anywhere from 35% to 70-80%, with the lowest chances of 15-25% chances from late Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Even more of a cooling trend will begin Tuesday.

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the forecast period, with the warmest conditions tonight through Friday.

- Shower and storm chances Thursday night through Saturday evening and again early next week will range anywhere from 35% to 70-80%, with the lowest chances of 15-25% chances from late Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Even more of a cooling trend will begin Tuesday.

- Wet, cool pattern continues through the end of the forecast period.

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

Increasing model divergence by the weekend leaves some details a bit fuzzy at this time, but greater agreement exists on weather drying out by late weekend with a brief bout of amplified ridging at the synoptic level before a deep trough pushes eastward by early next week, increasing PoPs to close out the forecast period.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

- Showers/storms anticipated (50-70%) across northern MO by Wednesday evening.

Several disturbances/boundaries will continue to move near or into the forecast area Friday, through the weekend and even into next week. The model blend produces good chances (35-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday evening, with similar chances returning late Sunday night through Tuesday. Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances. Severe storms

Severe threat remains low with any activity.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

The front essentially stays just north of the area, and keeps the best chances (50-70%) across the northern counties, with chances decreasing to 15-30s as the spread southeast across the rest of the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Clouds, precipitation, and eventually northeast to easterly winds, will brings highs down into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, with lows remaining in the 50s.