- 15-20% chances of showers and thunderstorms return late tonight into tomorrow morning, with breezy south winds through the day Wednesday.

chances of showers and thunderstorms across all but far

southeast counties between midnight tonight through 9am

South winds will increase Wednesday morning to

10-20mph, with afternoon gusts of 25-30mph.

The warmest period will be tonight through Friday with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees, and highs in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.

Well above normal temperatures will continue for the next week.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

The model blend produces good chances (35-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday evening, with similar chances returning late Sunday night through Tuesday.

Several disturbances/boundaries will continue to move near or into the forecast area Friday, through the weekend and even into next week.

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

Clouds, precipitation, and eventually northeast to easterly winds, will brings highs down into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, with lows remaining in the 50s.

- Shower and storm chances Thursday night through Saturday evening and again early next week will range anywhere from 35% to 70-80%, with the lowest chances of 15-25% chances from late Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Even more of a cooling trend will begin Tuesday.

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the forecast period, with the warmest conditions tonight through Friday.

- Shower and storm chances Thursday night through Saturday evening and again early next week will range anywhere from 35% to 70-80%, with the lowest chances of 15-25% chances from late Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Even more of a cooling trend will begin Tuesday.

- Wet, cool pattern continues through the end of the forecast period.

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

Increasing model divergence by the weekend leaves some details a bit fuzzy at this time, but greater agreement exists on weather drying out by late weekend with a brief bout of amplified ridging at the synoptic level before a deep trough pushes eastward by early next week, increasing PoPs to close out the forecast period.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

- Showers/storms anticipated (50-70%) across northern MO by Wednesday evening.

Several disturbances/boundaries will continue to move near or into the forecast area Friday, through the weekend and even into next week. The model blend produces good chances (35-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday evening, with similar chances returning late Sunday night through Tuesday. Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances. Severe storms

Severe threat remains low with any activity.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

The front essentially stays just north of the area, and keeps the best chances (50-70%) across the northern counties, with chances decreasing to 15-30s as the spread southeast across the rest of the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Clouds, precipitation, and eventually northeast to easterly winds, will brings highs down into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, with lows remaining in the 50s.

- 15-20% chances of showers and general thunderstorms through the morning.

chances remain on the lower end of the spectrum, around 20 percent

scattered showers and general thunderstorms

Chances will spread northeastward from now through

more general subsidence and drying within the previously mentioned layer occurs by the afternoon

southerly winds 15-20+ mph and gusts pushing 30+ mph.

the upper 70s and low 80s.

- Better chances (35-60%) of showers and isolated storms arrive this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.

Lapse rates and wind profiles are not supportive of much more than showers and a few rumbles of general thunder.

Boundary drifts southward Thursday, likely stalling out in an east- west fashion over Central Missouri by the afternoon.

This will bisect the area temperature wise with northern areas toward the lower 70s and areas south of the Missouri River closer to the low 80s.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% S of Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

Any precipitation development will again be in an environment of poor to moderate lapse rates and weak wind shear profiles, yielding a showers to general thunder threat primarily for areas near and south of the Missouri River and I-70 during the afternoon to early evening hours.

This activity may linger well into Friday over northern Missouri, especially as you push eastward where the boundary is expected to struggle to push northward.

Again, nothing more than showers to general thunder potential there as well.

Temperatures remain on the warm side of seasonal norms, but cooling some from the mid-upper 70s for many on Friday into the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend.

This potentially sets up an active/wet period through the first half of the new work week.

Much to iron out there with vastly different progressions depicted among the Euro/GFS/Canadian deterministic runs, but all currently yield a yet/active look and tends to be reflected as well within their ensemble output.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Basically, how much convergence and lift is achieved is a bit questionable.

Late Friday into the weekend a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to lift into the area, but some uncertain lingers in its exact path and ultimately precipitation chances and timing.

Basically, how much convergence and lift is achieved is a bit questionable.

Best chances may be westward into Kansas where southerly flow into the boundary may be stronger.

Late Friday into the weekend a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to lift into the area, but some uncertain lingers in its exact path and ultimately precipitation chances and timing.

The 00z [7 PM CDT] run of the major deterministic models range from widespread showers (GFS) to largely overcast but on the dry side (Euro/Canadian) for Saturday/Halloween.

Some of that will be dependent on precipitation coverage as well with noted 25th/75th MaxT spreads of 5-8 deg F.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% S of Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

Current timing shows a bit of a lull late Saturday night through Sunday evening with only 15-25% chances, but timing tweaks are still possible based on the movement of the disturbances.

- Better chances (35-60%) of showers and isolated storms arrive this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.

- Better chances (35-70%) of showers and isolated storms arrive Wednesday evening across extreme northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with chances decreasing to 15-30% as they slowly spread southeast overnight into Thursday.

- Showers/storms anticipated (50-70%) across northern MO by Wednesday evening.

- Better chances (35-60%) of showers and isolated storms arrive this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.

Much to iron out there with vastly different progressions depicted among the Euro/GFS/Canadian deterministic runs, but all currently yield a yet/active look and tends to be reflected as well within their ensemble output.

- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.

increasingly sparse through the overnight.

Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow.

Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F.

Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow. North of the boundary, expect northeast winds while southerly flow remains south of the boundary. Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F. There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

Leading shortwave building east across Kansas tomorrow could lead to more scattered shower activity developing across northwestern Missouri.

A much larger and broad wave lifts north from Texas into the Central Plains later on Friday leading to more widespread shower/thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday.

Halloween looks to be fairly gloomy and cooler with scattered showers.

Precipitable water values 1.1-1.2" (near daily max) should lead to fairly efficient rain processes.

- Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation Friday - Wednesday.

A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central US through at least the firs half of next week.

This could lead to cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet conditions.

Strongest storms may produce small hail.

There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

Strongest storms may produce small hail.

- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.

There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central US through at least the firs half of next week.

This could lead to cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet conditions.

Strongest storms may produce small hail.

Lapse rates and wind profiles are not supportive of much more than showers and a few rumbles of general thunder.

- Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation Friday - Wednesday.

- Above to well above normal temperatures continue through the forecast period, with the warmest conditions today through Friday.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% S of Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F.

This will bisect the area temperature wise with northern areas toward the lower 70s and areas south of the Missouri River closer to the low 80s.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.