Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
4 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28, current when the day began
From the NWS discussion issued 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28.
How sure forecasters were
The discussion doesn't say how confident forecasters are overall; it uses hedges like "may", "could" and "potentially" for tonight's hail, Thursday's storms and next week's wet pattern.
- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
increasingly sparse through the overnight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow. North of the boundary, expect northeast winds while southerly flow remains south of the boundary. Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F. There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Leading shortwave building east across Kansas tomorrow could lead to more scattered shower activity developing across northwestern Missouri.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
A much larger and broad wave lifts north from Texas into the Central Plains later on Friday leading to more widespread shower/thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Halloween looks to be fairly gloomy and cooler with scattered showers.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Precipitable water values 1.1-1.2" (near daily max) should lead to fairly efficient rain processes.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation Friday - Wednesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central US through at least the firs half of next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
This could lead to cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet conditions.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Strongest storms may produce small hail.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
The strongest storms this evening in northern Missouri and northeast Kansas may produce small hail.
Strongest storms may produce small hail.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central US through at least the firs half of next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
This could lead to cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet conditions.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Strongest storms may produce small hail.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Lapse rates and wind profiles are not supportive of much more than showers and a few rumbles of general thunder.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:27 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation Friday - Wednesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Above to well above normal temperatures continue through the forecast period, with the warmest conditions today through Friday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 28
- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% S of Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 28
Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
This will bisect the area temperature wise with northern areas toward the lower 70s and areas south of the Missouri River closer to the low 80s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:27 p.m. Wed Oct 28
- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 1:55 p.m. Wed Oct 28
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 28
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Wed Oct 28
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 3:53 a.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Multiple rounds of showers/storms through the early weekend. - Temperatures remain warm, before cooling down by the early weekend. - Wet, cooler pattern by next week.
The current cold front situated just NW of MO will continue to sag southward before becoming quasi-stationary over northern/central MO by the afternoon tomorrow. Despite earlier convection along the cold front, an increasingly inhibited environment with an unfavorable synoptic environment has decreased PoPs through the overnight. High temperatures behind the front fall to the high 60s/low 70s, while areas south of the front remain around the 80s. Continued spread in HREF members on temperature solutions during the afternoon (~4-6 degF spreads) remains across the northern half of MO. However, this corridor of spread narrows through the course of the day, increasing confidence in the position of the front eventually settling over central MO. South of the boundary closer to the US-50 corridor, low- level southerly flow will create a narrow corridor of elevated instability by the late afternoon. Capping will prevent any initiation earlier on in the day, but guidance increasingly indicates the erosion of the cap by the late afternoon. However, our other ingredients for thunderstorm development (vertical wind shear and lift) remain marginal at best, with better synoptic forcing (a shortwave, a LLJ, etc.) remaining displaced from the boundary's location. This creates a setup where, although convection is not out of the question with surface convergence along the boundary by the mid-late afternoon, the risk of severe activity remains low. By this evening, low-level WAA out ahead of a shortwave will reinvigorate chances for precipitation (40-60%) as the boundary lifts back northward. Convective guidance resolves this activity as widespread scattered showers, with building convective inhibition as the nocturnal boundary layer establishes itself despite increasingly favorable shear profiles and elevated instability. This activity looks to persist through early Friday morning/afternoon as the boundary stalls out once again over northern MO, with overall PoPs around 15-30% through the afternoon and evening. A stout mid-level ridge persists over the eastern third of the CONUS, keeping the forecast area within the periphery of its flow. Another shortwave following the atmospheric flow northward from the southern Plains will increase PoPs (70-90%) Friday evening, bolstered by dCVA at the base of an oncoming mid-level trough. This low amplitude trough will act to push the mid-level ridge axis further off towards the east. However, persistent low-level WAA and dCVA south of I-70 will keep PoPs around 30-50% through Saturday afternoon/evening, which isn't great news for any folks looking to go out for Halloween. In (slightly?) better news, surface winds out of the E/SE coupled with increased cloud cover will help temperatures to fall to the high 60s/low 70s areawide by Saturday, which (although still seasonally high) is much better than continued 80 degree temperatures into November. By Sunday, PoPs look to clear out, with semi-zonal flow as the ridge axis bends off towards the northwest and a mid-level trough over the western CONUS begins its trek eastward. Models continue to indicate the development of a deepening surface cyclone over the central CONUS, which will continue to leave the beginning of next week looking wet as the cyclone lifts off towards the northeast. Synoptic model guidance begins to deviate by the later part of the forecast period on the location of the trough axis over the central CONUS, and whether the trough closes off or continues to propagate along the atmospheric flow. This leads to greater deviations in PoPs by next Wednesday, which decreases overall confidence in solutions for precipitation in the extended forecast. Greater advection of dry, cooler air from the northwest behind the initial surface cyclone will continue to lower temperatures into the early days of November to the high 50s/low 60s areawide.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:30 p.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Scattered showers and storms possible (40-70% chance) Thursday night into Friday across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Backbuilding storms could lead to localized flooding concerns. - Additional showers and storms Friday evening through Saturday morning (30-50% chance south of I-70, 50-70% chance north of I-70). Rain chances generally decrease to about 20-30% by evening. - Rainy start to next week areawide.
What has been generally zonal flow aloft will become increasingly meridional over the coming days, leading to a more active period for weather. A cold front has slipped southward throughout the morning. Latest surface observations indicate this boundary now sits near the Missouri River with temperatures roughly 3-5 degF cooler on the north side of front. As for high temperatures today, we could see about a 10 degF temperature difference between our northern and southern tiers of counties. The front is expected to continue sinking south throughout the afternoon and evening, becoming more diffuse in the process. Isolated shower or storm development south of the boundary this afternoon remains possible under WAA conditions, but it seems such development would be quite the uphill battle given poor shear and lackluster lapse rates. The arrival of the cold front could inspire a brief shower or storm. Even so, I would not expect anything remotely robust given the lack of upper- level support. Shower and storm activity appears to be more likely (40-70%) across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri beginning later this evening and then continuing through the early portions of the day on Friday. Continued low-level WAA will promote a region of elevated instability (as much as 800 J/kg) in these areas by late evening. Lift looks to be provided by an approaching shortwave with several members of the guidance resolving a localized vortmax north of the Missouri River around 06Z; roughly around this time is when CAMs also begin to resolve scattered showers and storms. CAMs also present a backbuilding scenario across far northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri...with PWATs between 1.25-1.5", isolated flooding may occur where showers/storms continuously move over the same area. Scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the day on Friday. Further south, the cold front currently crawling through our CWA will lift back north as a warm front in the afternoon/evening. This with an approaching mid-level trough will reinvigorate rain chances for much of the region Friday PM into Saturday AM (hourly PoPs about 40-70%). Low-end rain chances will continue for the remainder of the day as the mid-level trough continues its journey through the Plains/Midwest. Generally along and west of the I-35 and I-49 corridors, these chances are closer to 20-30% given a low-level dry layer and little upper-level support from the vacating mid-level trough. Further into central Missouri, these rain chances are slightly higher at 30-50% where the mid-level trough may still retain some influence. Sunday continues to look dry with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. A deepening upper trough over the western CONUS will slide to eastward over the weekend with its accompanying surface cyclone moving into the Great Plains on Monday. This system will result in a more active weather pattern than what we have become accustomed to in recent days and even some weeks. Indeed, the first half of the week looks rather soggy (Monday and Tuesday especially). Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov. 2. We will need to monitor potential instability corridors ahead of the surface low's attendant cold front as these areas would have an inherently higher risk for flooding due to convectively-driven high rainfall rates.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 6:32 p.m. discussion
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Scattered showers and storms possible (40-70% chance) Thursday night into Friday across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. - Additional showers and storms Friday evening through Saturday morning (30-50% chance south of I-70, 50-70% chance north of I-70). Rain chances generally decrease to about 20-30% by evening. - Rainy start to next week areawide.
What has been generally zonal flow aloft will become increasingly meridional over the coming days, leading to a more active period for weather. A cold front has slipped southward throughout the morning. Latest surface observations indicate this boundary now sits near the Missouri River with temperatures roughly 3-5 degF cooler on the north side of front. As for high temperatures today, we could see about a 10 degF temperature difference between our northern and southern tiers of counties. The front is expected to continue sinking south throughout the afternoon and evening, becoming more diffuse in the process. Isolated shower or storm development south of the boundary this afternoon remains possible under WAA conditions, but it seems such development would be quite the uphill battle given poor shear and lackluster lapse rates. The arrival of the cold front could inspire a brief shower or storm. Even so, I would not expect anything remotely robust given the lack of upper- level support. Shower and storm activity appears to be more likely (40-70%) across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri beginning later this evening and then continuing through the early portions of the day on Friday. Continued low-level WAA will promote a region of elevated instability (as much as 800 J/kg) in these areas by late evening. Lift looks to be provided by an approaching shortwave with several members of the guidance resolving a localized vort max north of the Missouri River around 06Z; roughly around this time is when CAMs also begin to resolve scattered showers and storms. CAMs also present a backbuilding scenario across far northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri...with PWATs between 1.25-1.5", isolated flooding may occur where showers/storms continuously move over the same area. Scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the day on Friday. Further south, the cold front currently crawling through our CWA will lift back north as a warm front in the afternoon/evening. This with an approaching mid-level trough will reinvigorate rain chances for much of the region Friday PM into Saturday AM (hourly PoPs about 40-70%). Low-end rain chances will continue for the remainder of the day as the mid-level trough continues its journey through the Plains/Midwest. Generally along and west of the I-35 and I-49 corridors, these chances are closer to 20-30% given a low-level dry layer and little upper-level support from the vacating mid-level trough. Further into central Missouri, these rain chances are slightly higher at 30-50% where the mid-level trough may still retain some influence. Sunday continues to look dry with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. A deepening upper trough over the western CONUS will slide to eastward over the weekend with its accompanying surface cyclone moving into the Great Plains on Monday. This system will result in a more active weather pattern than what we have become accustomed to in recent days and even some weeks. Indeed, the first half of the week looks rather soggy (Monday and Tuesday especially). Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov. 2. We will need to monitor potential instability corridors ahead of the surface low's attendant cold front as these areas would have an inherently higher risk for flooding due to convectively-driven high rainfall rates.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.