Plain versions of the NWS discussions issued that day. wxexplained wasn't running yet: they were written later (Fri Nov 6) from the NWS text, the same way and with the same checks. This is not the current forecast. Today's forecast
Alerts
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping NWS alerts on November 6, 2026. See the NWS discussion below for the watches and warnings it listed.
3 versions of the page that day, oldest first.
From the discussion of 6:32 p.m. Thu Oct 29, current when the day began
The plain version didn't pass the accuracy check (a quote or number didn't match the NWS text), so the NWS text was shown instead.
- Scattered showers and storms possible (40-70% chance) Thursday night into Friday across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. - Additional showers and storms Friday evening through Saturday morning (30-50% chance south of I-70, 50-70% chance north of I-70). Rain chances generally decrease to about 20-30% by evening. - Rainy start to next week areawide.
What has been generally zonal flow aloft will become increasingly meridional over the coming days, leading to a more active period for weather. A cold front has slipped southward throughout the morning. Latest surface observations indicate this boundary now sits near the Missouri River with temperatures roughly 3-5 degF cooler on the north side of front. As for high temperatures today, we could see about a 10 degF temperature difference between our northern and southern tiers of counties. The front is expected to continue sinking south throughout the afternoon and evening, becoming more diffuse in the process. Isolated shower or storm development south of the boundary this afternoon remains possible under WAA conditions, but it seems such development would be quite the uphill battle given poor shear and lackluster lapse rates. The arrival of the cold front could inspire a brief shower or storm. Even so, I would not expect anything remotely robust given the lack of upper- level support. Shower and storm activity appears to be more likely (40-70%) across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri beginning later this evening and then continuing through the early portions of the day on Friday. Continued low-level WAA will promote a region of elevated instability (as much as 800 J/kg) in these areas by late evening. Lift looks to be provided by an approaching shortwave with several members of the guidance resolving a localized vort max north of the Missouri River around 06Z; roughly around this time is when CAMs also begin to resolve scattered showers and storms. CAMs also present a backbuilding scenario across far northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri...with PWATs between 1.25-1.5", isolated flooding may occur where showers/storms continuously move over the same area. Scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the day on Friday. Further south, the cold front currently crawling through our CWA will lift back north as a warm front in the afternoon/evening. This with an approaching mid-level trough will reinvigorate rain chances for much of the region Friday PM into Saturday AM (hourly PoPs about 40-70%). Low-end rain chances will continue for the remainder of the day as the mid-level trough continues its journey through the Plains/Midwest. Generally along and west of the I-35 and I-49 corridors, these chances are closer to 20-30% given a low-level dry layer and little upper-level support from the vacating mid-level trough. Further into central Missouri, these rain chances are slightly higher at 30-50% where the mid-level trough may still retain some influence. Sunday continues to look dry with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. A deepening upper trough over the western CONUS will slide to eastward over the weekend with its accompanying surface cyclone moving into the Great Plains on Monday. This system will result in a more active weather pattern than what we have become accustomed to in recent days and even some weeks. Indeed, the first half of the week looks rather soggy (Monday and Tuesday especially). Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov. 2. We will need to monitor potential instability corridors ahead of the surface low's attendant cold front as these areas would have an inherently higher risk for flooding due to convectively-driven high rainfall rates.
MO...None. KS...None.
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:32 a.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30.
How sure forecasters were
The discussion doesn't say how confident forecasters are overall. For Monday it calls strong/severe storms only "some potential" and says instability looks weak; how quickly the system leaves next week is uncertain.
- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
shear is relatively weak, and that is theNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
main limiting factor preventing stronger convection acrossNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
northeastern Kansas through northern MissouriNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
For Saturday, ascent looks weaker/less focused, leading to lower chances for precipitation overall, despite what looks like thick cloud cover.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Transient shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday, limiting precipitation chances.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
- Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
This leads to very anomalously high precipitable water values that are near or at the max percentiles in the NAEFS climatology.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
In the wake of this early week system, temperatures fall back to near-normal levels, in the lower 60s for much of the area, for middle to later part of next week.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
The shortwave associated with the early week precipitation chances may be slow to depart the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Forecasters will watch for possible strong or severe storms in eastern Kansas and western Missouri Monday afternoon and evening, driven by strong winds aloft even though instability looks weak.
Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
The shortwave associated with the early week precipitation chances may be slow to depart the area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Deterministic models show the upper-low getting cutoff and meandering through the region.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
- Rainy start to next week areawide.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:27 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:27 a.m. Fri Oct 30
This system will result in a more active weather pattern than what we have become accustomed to in recent days and even some weeks. Indeed, the first half of the week looks rather soggy (Monday and Tuesday especially). Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov. 2.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:27 a.m. Fri Oct 30
- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Sunday continues to look dry with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:27 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Deterministic models show the upper-low getting cutoff and meandering through the region.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
There's some indication of this in the ensemble 500mb clusters, though they never show the system cutting off.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:32 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Thu Oct 29
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Thu Oct 29
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.
From the 2:33 p.m. discussion
From the NWS discussion issued 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30.
How sure forecasters were
Forecasters are most confident in rain tonight west of I-35. Whether Monday's storms turn strong or severe is uncertain.
- Scattered to widespread showers (50-80% chance) this evening and into Saturday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
increase to about 40-50% south of the Missouri River by 6 PM or soNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
before expanding further north overnight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
greatest primarily in areas west of I-35 where hourly PoPs approachNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
70-80% just around midnight.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
that most will remain as light rain showers.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
All that said...generally expecting around 0.25" toNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
0.5" of rain west of I-35 through early Saturday afternoon.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Elsewhere, accumulations will likely fall below 0.25".NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Locally higher amounts will be possibleNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
- Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Given the low-level dry layer, though, these would be isolated and brief in nature.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Sunday looks dry with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Rain chances return late Sunday night and into Monday as an upper- trough encourages surface cyclogenesis off of the Rockies.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
This will advect substantial moisture into the region with PWATs soaring to around 1.75".NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Confidence in rain isNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance). - Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday. Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Some storms on Monday could be strong or severe, but this is still uncertain. Forecasters call Monday, ahead of a cold front, the key time to watch.
The Weather Prediction Center keeps a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall, meaning heavy rain is possible in a few spots, for portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.
A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance). - Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday. Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front. This will be the key timeframe to monitor over the coming forecast cycles.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
WPC has maintained a Marginal RiskNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
(Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for portions of northernNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Missouri and northeastern Kansas.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
probabilities for 24-hour rainfall accumulations of at least 0.25" by 1 PM SaturdayNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
roughly between I-29 and I-35 in Missouri (including the Kansas CityNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Model spread is also higher in these areasNWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Some uncertainty is introduced by a weaker shortwave that approaches southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri as it could help spawn some showers in the evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Given the low-level dry layer, though, these would be isolated and brief in nature.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front. This will be the key timeframe to monitor over the coming forecast cycles.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Sunday looks dry with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Fri Oct 30
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
- Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday night.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Fri Oct 30
A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance).NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
that most will remain as light rain showers.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Hazardous Weather Outlook, 5:01 a.m. Fri Oct 30
Moreover, the daily maximum PWATs from their climatology during the first week of November is around 1.5". Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Area Forecast Discussion, 2:33 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, previous Area Forecast Discussion, 12:14 p.m. Fri Oct 30
Not recorded: wxexplained began keeping the NWS forecast numbers on November 6, 2026.